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Friday, 23 December 2011

Achieving goals & a seasonal message.

My schedule at the minute is such that I barely get time to look at the markets, let alone post on here. Something I hope to change in the New Year. Only the nag seasonal break and a house full of tradesmen gives me this opportunity.

Some nice dutches this week, both Wolves and last night's Spurs v Chelsea game have provided very nice greens, with 2-2 and 1-1 included respectively.

Yesterday provided a very timely best nag trading day ever. Surpassing the previous best by 20%. The chat room provided by horseracingtraders.com is frequented by some very knowledgable traders, from whom I've learnt a great deal and, undoubtedly, I've made a profit from their advice.

With twelve meetings on Boxing Day and a full card of football, it will be a busy day. Not until the morning will I get chance to study. I have been posting some trades on Twitter - @layingthedraw.

2011 has been an incredible year. On reviewing my personal goals for the year, though not to the letter, I'm really pleased to be able to say I have achieved them all. Our house is as good as finished, I am fitter than I've been in many years and I am ten times the sport trader I was a year ago.
I'm finding it difficult to lay out my goals for 2012, only because I genuinely cannot think of anything, in the short term and within my own control, that I feel will improve my life and that of my nearest and dearest. As such, I hope 2011 has been as good to you as it has to me, and that 2012 will be even better.

Merry Xmas, a prosperous and very happy New Year.

Stay green.

Thursday, 15 December 2011

Back on track

Before racing began yesterday, I spent a couple of hours watching and re-watching my own Camtasia videos, recorded when I first began using these new nag trading techniques. It was a very worthwhile exercise, for two reasons. Firstly, it showed me, once again, that I had veered a long way from the original techniques and rules. These were re-employed yesterday and a very nice green was taken from all but two races from twenty four. Much of the loss from the previous two days was recouped. The other thing that has been missing from my nag trading, which I was totally unaware of, is how much I had been enjoying it. My own dulcet tones coming over the audio to each video, proved that I was having a great time during each trading session. The level of confidence needed to return to the same amount of glee is still lacking but I expect it to return shortly.

Whilst yesterday's nags went well, annoyingly, the football did not. The prices weren't great value but 0-1 was covered from the off, in addition to other scores, in the Besiktas v Stoke game. As soon as Upson was ordered from the field and the resulting penalty was converted, I closed for a loss, 3-1 at FT.
I'll be trying a similar set of scores tonight for Brugge v Braga. Were I laying the draw this month, though I haven't studied the game, I'd likely be LTD in the Birmingham v Maribor game.

Short on time today as Lambretta Jr. stars in his first Nativity this afternoon, he's a shepherd. I'm taking a drawing pin in my pocket, to push into my leg, to stop me weeping in front of the yummy Mummy's.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 14 December 2011

Stick to the path

Nag trading for me was always the unassailable height, the uncrossable chasm, the unreachable summit. After many expensive endeavours, I finally gave up and got on with what I was good at, trading football. Then I signed up to horseracingtraders.com, (this is not a plug, membership is now closed), from where I learnt to trade horses very effectively indeed. All the aspects never previously revealed to me were now handed to me on a plate - correct entry and exit points, correct market shape, understanding of both in-running and pre race strategies. Mark, the service provider, uses methods that suit my style perfectly and, his delivery makes it very easy to understand how to make very good consistent profits. Why then, over the last two days, have I managed to reduce the nag bank by the best part of £800? Simple. Because I didn't trade in any way like I had been shown to do. Fortunately, Mrs. Lambretta always proves a fantastic sounding board and after ten minutes of her logic, which basically boiled down to "why weren't you doing what you had been taught?", I returned to trade the last seven races of the day, all to a nice profit.
I've posted about evolving these methods and how fixing what isn't broken is never a good idea before. I realise now that it's my own bravado and conceitedness that forces me to think "I can do this better". The truth, of course, is that I can do it well, when I follow the rules. Ego is a traders worst enemy. Before you make my mistake, leave yours a long way from your trading station.

Some decent dutches at the weekend. Arsenal v Everton was covered at HT and finished with a small green. The Norwich v Newcastle game was 1-1 at HT, which offered 105% which was taken.
The CS prices for Chelsea v Man City were very generous and offered a staggering 2/1 for dutched 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2. Very nice green there.

The only game worth looking at is the Besiktas v Stoke game for me. Stoke have qualified, Besiktas only need a point to go through, they could top the group but I expect it to be a bore draw. 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0.

Whatever you trade, stay green. Whatever your rules, stay inside them.

Saturday, 10 December 2011

Where have all the heroes gone?

The mother-in-law visited last night and brought with her a magazine containing an article from Jarvis Cocker. After speaking with some school children, (in a controlled and secure environment), he had drawn the conclusion that Heaven had now been replaced, in the minds of the young, by fame. Suggesting that they saw fame as the answer to all problems they may have or face. Adding the above to a post written by Gundulf, I pondered on the role models we see on the pitch today compared to those from yesteryear.
George Best was famed for his drinking and philandering as much he was for his talent and ultimately paid the price. But he was a real hero and people love/d him. What is there to love about those that are considered to be today's best players? So many are petulant, spiteful, childish and totally unworthy. Those that genuinely deserve such high accolade and praise are, so often, over looked. The one exception is Lionel Messi. To my mind, the best the world has seen and, as it should be, you hear of him only on the back pages, in yards of column inches, describing his brilliance, not where he was, who he was with, what he was doing etc.
A good example of a wonderful footballer, who was worthy of all that was bestowed upon him and more, from whom you heard nothing untoward, throughout his entire career, is Paul Scholes. A better footballing role model you would be hard pushed to find. Of course, the same can be said for Gary Speed, safe journey.

Today I shall be mostly trading, Arsenal v Everton. It's a big day for Arsenal with an anniversary and RVP's opportunity to beat Henry's record of most goals in a calendar year. Home win. There is a suggestion that Everton are lacking up front but they are averaging 1.3 goals per away game in the Prem. 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 3-0, 3-1.
Norwich v Newcastle - Newcastle are without their top men in the back line and Norwich have only failed to score once at Home this season. The same can be said for Newcastle away. Only W. Brom and Arsenal have taken 3pts at Carrow Road. Jumped on the Over 2.5 last night at 1.86, currently 1.81, I'm tempted to leave it. 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2.

Tonight sees the X-Factor final. After greening up my lay of Marcus, I now have a very nice green book, but there is no stand out winner, as there is most years. The price for Little Mix is the only static of the three and I'm very tempted to use some green to back Amelia Lily at 4.5.

Whatever you trade, stay green. Whatever course you take, make sure it's the correct one...

Thursday, 8 December 2011

Pride of Manchester?

Recently I made a charity donation to secure a pair of tickets to any Man Utd Home game, including Champions League. Only this week I phoned to confirm for the first Champions League Home game in February. Now it seems, I shall be watching Man Utd v Maccabi Plzen Kiev Dogshit or some other spurious team. Don't get me wrong, I certainly don't regret the donation. It went to a great cause, but it would have been even better spent had Utd drawn one of Europe's big guns and I was there to see it.
A friend of mine, Man Utd fan, was set to be joining me and he, obviously, was a little disappointed. After further discussion we agreed that, as City are looking likely title winners, our predicament may not be that bad. Whilst Fergie will always be optimistic about getting back in title race, it could be that the Europa League may be their saving grace this season.
Against my better judgement, I did get involved with the Utd dutch. Even though I'd seen that Wellbeck wasn't starting and Park was. Valencia should have come on, at the earliest, at HT. Why he added the hapless Macheda, is beyond me. Still he's not the most successful club manager for nothing...
The game was a success for me in the end. The HT 0-0 was very low at 3.25, which was laid and as soon as Basel scored the second, I laid them at 1.04, small liability and big chance Utd would get at least one. Greened at 1.15 after the Utd goal. For those wishing to know the moves made on the dutch to secure a scratch, 1-0 was backed at 13.5 for 10% of stake, then laid late on to add 2-0.

Nothing for today.

Those of you viewing this blog through Chrome will have likely seen a message suggesting there may be malware attached to this site. I've looked into it. Apparently, someone who once read an article about malware, farted on the same Tube carriage as the author of soccerbythenumbers and Google has decided this tenuous link is dangerous to your computer... Read more at your peril.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 7 December 2011

Deciphering double Dutch

Had some requests for more info on the dutch, moves made and how scores/games are chosen. I'd love to say it's all my own work, that I spent years poring over stats and markets etc, etc. Much of it is down to me but I picked up a great deal from two CS greats. One being Bingo of  Trading Football fame and the other Mark Doom-meister Smith.
For me, the trick to dutching successfully is knowing which scores to lay and which to cover when the need arises. Both the Chelsea and Arsenal games were dutched last night, starting with exactly the same scores and, ironically, having the same in-play situation - an early 2-0 lead. In both games the 1-0 was laid after the first goal for 10% of stake and 3-1 was added for 15% of stake. Chelsea looked hungry and there was a real fear of cricket scores. (Chelsea began to score after Lampard was removed on Saturday, he was absent last night and they played their best game of the season, coincidence?) After 2-0, I took a red of 27%, knowing later opportunities would come. At HT, I dutched 3-0 and AUQ, at a generous even money, which paid dividends.
From the in-play stats in Greece, it was obvious that the game had calmed down and that was left to run for a nice green.
Picking games and scores is very subjective but the best starting point is to look for regularly occurring scores for each team and take into account recent H2H's. From there, get an idea of what you think is the most likely score and work around that. There is more to it and there are other tricks to apply but it would unfair, to certain other parties, who have put in all the work and research, to give too much away. Trial and error is always the best learning curve.

I'm tempted by the United game. Basel need the win to overcome Utd's better goal difference, meaning they'll have to go for it and leave themselves exposed, Wellbeck and Rooney up front is likely but I'll await more team news. If traded, probable scores will be 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2 with a view to adding 0-3 or 1-3 later if necessary.
City need to win and cross their fingers Villareal, yet to secure a point, can get something against Napoli. Bayern have already qualified but I doubt they'll make up the numbers, despite missing the likes of Robben.
I'll be watching both these games and looking to get involved with both in-play if not before.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 6 December 2011

A good example

After posting yesterday, I received an email asking for an example of how dutching might be a better, more profitable, safer option than LTD. Now, I must stress that I too am still questioning whether or not this is true but I'm dedicating the bank, study time and the entire month of December to finding out.
Last night's game between Fulham and Liverpool is a very good example. 0-0 had been covered, the game looked like it would stay that way or a marginal Liverpool win as suggested, until Spearing was sent off. At this point it was possible to lay 0-0 and back 1-0, which I did. Leaving a red on 0-0 and scratch on the 1-0. So, no loss. More importantly though, any loss would've been minimal. Had I laid the draw in this game, (only a mad man would), it would've been a red book at 70 minutes and for more than my original stake. Instead I came out losing nothing and, had the game gone the right way, I would've had close to 100% roi. You rarely get that with LTD.

Tonight's pick is Chelsea v Valencia. Currently neck and neck, Chelsea need to take Home advantage and push away from Valencia. 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 5 December 2011

Good start to a big month and shelving LTD.

December is an expensive month. Even more so, now we've discovered the Lambretta Towers re-furb will be a lot more expensive than previously thought. The good news though, the month is off to a flyer.

Saturday's nag trading could've been truly amazing but it did go very well. The weekend's football was also very good. A dutch of Chelsea, that didn't include 0-3, a late 0-2 meant nice green. And a dutch of Man Utd, which didn't include 0-1, the goal was early enough and the game looked a little shaky, so a decent early green taken there. I planned to LTD Sheff Wed in the FA Cup but there wasn't enough money in the market. They scored the winner just after 60 minutes. Yesterday, after finishing yet another lengthy stint with the paint brush, I laid Stoke and backed 0-1 - scratch. Wolves v Sunderland went a lot better. Laid both 0-0 and U2.5 at HT, game finished 2-1.

Over these last few months, I have been making comparisons between, your friend and mine, the LTD and the dutch trade. After much deliberation, I have take the decision to stop laying the draw throughout the month of December.
Both the bank and the study time allocated to LTD will be utilised for dutch trades. There's a couple of reasons for doing this. If I dutch 4, 5 or 6 scores in a game, my potential red is a great deal less than if LTD. Plus, and this is a major benefit, I have a great many more opportunities to exit a trade for a much smaller loss than if LTD. Another major benefit is the likelihood of many more tradeable games each day. The only real danger to the dutch is very quick, early goals, even then you can, very often, exit for scratch. The big decider will be the P&L for that account at the end of the month. All trades will be posted here. Tonight will be Fulham v Liverpool. 0-0, 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2.

X-Factor trading truly could not have gone any better. Misha was laid last week as an outright. As predicted, she is now gone. I originally backed Marcus at 26, I have now laid him back at 2.6, to scratch, he's now 3.9.
Suddenly, Amelia Lily looks big at 3.5.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 3 December 2011

Remember, remember double stakes in December

So much going on right now, it's difficult to find the time to post. Each morning my phone goes off, telling me which part of the Lambretta Towers re-furb needs to be completed that day. Messers Farrow & Ball will be having their annual holiday courtesy of Mrs. Lambretta next year.

Despite my optimism, November didn't finish as well as I had hoped. It did, however, finish with more than double the profit of October and, considering this is only the second full month, I think I can be justly proud with how it did finish.
My intention was always to increase stakes in December, which I've done. Thursday is the only day traded so far and that finished with a very nice green, despite an early lack of liquidity. Today's cards are good and should hold many opportunities.
Horseracingtraders.com now has it's own chat room facility which, though only two days old, is proving a great addition. Good, experienced traders, as well as newbies, assisting each other and offering ideas. Plus helping each other make a few quid on other sports. Just how a chat room should be.

Not much football done this week but those traded have been profitable. A dutch at Stoke on Thursday included 1-1 and with a late lay of 0-1 proved a very nice green. Yesterday's Leverkusen game was a stand out LTD, I let it run until 70 minutes, only for them to get the winner on 74! A set and go dutch, with 1-1, on the Palace v Derby game capped a short Friday evening of trading.

The coupon for today is no that promising on the LTD front. Haven't had a full look yet but I don't see there being many, if at all.
Last season I had the Villa v Man Utd game pegged at 2-2 and that's how it finished. Can't see it this year. Mcleish is killing a Villa side who were making slow but steady progress, I suspect today will be another nail in their coffin. A draw if they're very lucky. A straight forward dutch for me.

Tonight sees the Semi Final of this year's X Factor. Initially I had Marcus down to win it but he's become a bit of a crooner and likens himself to Jackie Wilson, a comparison I fail to see in anything other than the 'tache, and Jackie is a God in my eyes so, I've decided to green up my back of Marcus, (I got him at 26) and will lay him back. Little Mix are very current and Tulisa has won the young voters. Amelia Lily is very credible but will the public allow a re-entry to win? Misha will go tomorrow.

Yesterday's Euro2012 draw was excellent for trading. I got matched on France and had a little bit more on England just before the draw began. Every man and his dog seems to think I'm bonkers in backing England but, as I've posted before, I have the same feeling about England as I did about Holland last year, they will go close. The concern for them now is to avoid Spain by winning the group, worst case for me though, if they do get Spain, I can lay them in that single game. A great position to be in. As for France, they are on the up. Laurent Blanc, who looks the real deal to me, has not seen a defeat since his tenure began. Again, worst case, I can trade their individual games in the group, if necessary.

After getting spammed by some moron without a life away from his keyboard, my Twitter account has been suspended, so I can't post any trades or in-play moves. Sorry.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 28 November 2011

A welcome break and some re-learning

Had a few days off from most trading. The refurb of Lambretta Towers needs to be finished before Xmas, but the real benefit of being away from the markets has been exactly that - being away from the markets.
Prior to this little break I was becoming all consumed, particularly by nag trading. Consequently I was making mistakes. A great deal of time has been spent mentally re-learning the skills and rules learnt from horseracingtraders.com. Though I'm still using a bastardised version of these rules, it became obvious I had evolved them too far and therefore the edge they offer was no longer there. Today has been really refreshing in that I have traded totally within my rules and scored a very nice green, despite some mistakes, and still going. As my old friend Gundulf said "If it ain't broke..."
It becomes very easy to take a macro view on your situation when you remove yourself from it for a while, and a great deal easier to pinpoint errors.

I have been doing some football but not much. Laid a couple of draws at the weekend, West Ham was a nice 100%. Fulham were laid cheaply after going ahead, though the game did end with a small red after I drip laid 1-1. Only caught the very end of the Liverpool v City game which looked like a good game for the neutral but not the trader. Might have a dabble with Charlton v Huddersfield later but only in-play.
Tottenham did me anther massive favour by scoring the away win at W. Brom.

The Euro2012 draw is on Friday at 4.45pm on BBC2. This makes for great trading opportunities, if you can be quick. I'm still confident my England trade will be profitable and will certainly take some more should they drift, based on who is in their group.

X Factor could not have been better for me. Laid Misha B on Saturday as an outright and then laid Janet at 10's(!?) just before the eviction show. Really nice green on the remainder. Though I hope LittleMix win it, Marcus looks the winner but I fear he may become another Leon... whatever his name was.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

BTW - I think Mark at HRT(!) has opened up a few more spots.

Wednesday, 23 November 2011

I've forgotten how to do it!

After nag trading yesterday, which ended with a decent green, it dawned on me that I was now trading nags in an entirely different way to that which I had so recently learnt. I wanted to watch back my Camtasia videos, so I could remember those skills, but the 30 day free trial is now over and the videos can only be watched using the Camtasia Studio. (If anyone knows a way around this, I'd be very grateful). In essence, what I've done is leave behind those original skills as the method evolved on it's own. The silly thing is, those skills work perfectly well and I want to combine the two again as I had previously.
The software mentioned in yesterday's post is so far proving next to useless, firing only two trades when the parameters meant almost every race qualified for a trade. Disappointingly, the Customer Service is proving pretty poor too. I'll name and shame if it doesn't improve.

Yesterday's trade was a dutch of Cov v Cardiff. Set and go stuff, resulting in a nice green. Stupidly I talked myself into dutching Man U v Benfica. The 2-2 was a scratch but I drip laid it and ended up with a rare football red.

Only interested in-play on tonight's fixtures.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 22 November 2011

Spurred on.

Regular readers will know I have been trading the crap out of the Spurs price over the course of this season, they did me a massive favour last night. Harry has suggested they can win the title, I suggest they won't.
Initially my intention was to trade out before they play Chelsea early in December but I'm reconsidering. Chelsea aren't really doing it and Spur's fixtures, leading up to late January, should be 3 pts or draws.
The draw price on last night's Spurs v Villa game didn't look like value to me, based on Mcleish's record and the run of recent draws by Villa. Instead I plumped for the dutch, around 2-0 and 2-1. It was a very nice green with very little work to do. Not only that but the HT 0-0 and 1-0 were drip laid and, on the 1-0, all but one lay was matched.
Watched the first half of the German game but it was dishwater and didn't look like doing anything so it was left.

Nag trading was back to normal with an average green. More importantly, my confidence and self belief remain intact.
I'm trying a new piece of software today which, in theory, will do the same as me in the nag markets, just by setting certain parameters. It can only do it once per race but it may be a handy addition. Watch this space.

Dutching the Cov v Cardiff game but nothing else today.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 21 November 2011

The fall that follows pride.

Battered, bruised, forlorn, dizzy and sapped of all energy, I walked away from my desk on Saturday. That most inevitable of days finally came to quash any thoughts of having mastered the nag markets.
It's not unusual for me to begin the day with a red, first race etc, but the second was a red too, a big one. I'm not a subscriber to the idea of stopping trading when these things happen, for me it just makes the approach to the next days trading all the more daunting. That said, if my mental state were not right, walking away would be the right option but my emotional state was still a positive one. A decent green on the next race before yet another hit. This led to much examination from which I was confident the issues were pin-pointed. Another decent green on the next and then another medium sized red. This certainly was time to stop.
Some of my own rules were broken and the price was paid but, equally, the markets behaved in a way I'm not familiar with. This last sentence is very telling, I'm expecting the markets to behave a certain way and any trader worth his salt knows one thing has nothing to do with the other and the markets are entirely unpredictable. It's a good lesson learnt and today will see a certain temperance within my trading. The biggest battle today will be to ensure it is temperance and not timidity.

Thankfully my old comfort blanket of football was there to wrap me up and put back some much needed confidence.
Friday night went well. Two good dutches in Bundesliga2. Paderborn was based on the 2-1 and that's how it finished. Duisburg was based on the 1-1 but that was 2-0 at HT, so a few sharp lays scored a small green.
Saturday was even better. My hope was to lay the draw after Arsenal went ahead and back 1-1. When Norwich went ahead they were cheap to lay and Arsenal equalised soon after.
The Everton v Wolves dutch went swimmingly as did the Swansea v Man U one.
Newcastle were unlucky against City. They defended really well and looked like keeping them out until a silly penalty was awarded. 3-1 was covered and it ended a scratch. (I try not to be negative about anyone and wouldn't wish harm to anybody's person but Mario Ballotelli is truly testing my last saintly nerve).
The B. Munich v Dortmund game was a draw lay for me, I closed for scratch on the Dortmund winner on 65 minutes.
Got back in time for the second half of Chelsea v Liverpool and immediately laid Liverpool. When the game hit 60 minutes, I began drip laying the draw, all were matched except the last at 1.25. Nice green on the football account for the weekend.

Villa have done well away so far this season, drawing four of the last five, but Spurs are a hungry animal right now and 'Arry is said to be back in the dug out tonight. The draw price is a little high at 4.5, so I'll wait until nearer KO before making a decision.
Can't really see an angle on the Bochum v Cottbus game but it's on Betfair video and will be worth a watch for some in-play bits.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Friday, 18 November 2011

Some decent football, finally.

Interesting as the England games were, it's not disappointing to see the back of an international break and get back to the leagues.
I'm a big fan of German football and tonight will be dutching the Paderborn and Duisburg games, around 2-1 and 1-1 respectively. Kaiserslautern v Leverkusen should be a good game but unpredictable, in-play there.
Tomorrow's card is tricky but, at first glance, there should be some opportunities. Everton v Wolves looks a good dutch, as does Swansea v Man U. City are too short for me, against an excellent Newcastle side who are yet to be beaten away this season, they may find it tough. A lay with 2-1 and 3-0 for me. Norwich v Arsenal looks like LTD material but, with the draw price at 4's, if and when Arsenal score the price shouldn't go too far, a draw lay with 1-1 in-play.

It's been a good but quite up and down week on the nags. But for two silly mistakes, yesterday would've doubled the previous best, in the end it was just below.
Each day the profits are withdrawn, though I haven't looked at the P&L, I know this month's target has been hit already. Looking at the calendar, for me, there are nine trading days left in November, which should mean getting close to 200% of target.
Each day the method I'm using seems to be moulding and evolving on it's own, showing a potentially staggering profit figure. The silly mistakes made yesterday are absolutely the types of mistake that can be avoided and eradicated. Mrs. Lambretta was on the receiving end of my bemoaning the mistakes, she very quickly restored my faith by reminding me I've only been doing this for 8 weeks, already the profit figures are way beyond expectation - her words "Imagine what figures you'll be hitting after eight months." Good point.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 16 November 2011

England are value.

Over the last three months I have been backing England for Euro2012. Each time I watch them play, they reinforce my confidence and then more is added to my long term trade.
Though only a friendly, it was surprising not to see the England price contract, even slightly, after the win over Spain. Now, after overcoming the hoodoo of Sweden and doing so with very much a second eleven, the price still has remained the same.
England are better now than they have been for a very long time, in my opinion. With a new breed of very talented players coming through, mixed with some of the old guard, they can only get better.
Will they win? Maybe. More importantly will they trade a great deal lower than they currently are? Yes. I'm certain of it. My money is where my mouth is.

As suggested, the England v Sweden game was dutched to great success. Confidence in including the correct score in my list was so high that my usual dutching stakes were increased x4.
The Ireland v Estonia draw looked a very decent shout and, with the price shooting out to 10's after the first goal, it was very profitable.

Roll on the weekend. This lack of decent football is giving me withdrawal...

Stay green.

Monday, 14 November 2011

Taking the positives

Friday night was spent on the black stuff and, though I didn't have that many, a lack of sleep meant feeling very tired on sitting down to trade on Saturday afternoon. Knowing that my brain wasn't fully compos, tentative steps were made into the first race and a decent profit found. Confidence and focus increased, I approached the second with a bit more gusto, which cost 40% of the bank!
The first positive in the afternoon came from my emotional reaction to this, I barely had one. The ladders were opened for the third and I traded that and the next 7/8 races like a demon. Regaining the losses and adding just over 30% to the bank. This was the second positive - An ability to turn around a big red to a big green.
Over the remaining races, I could feel myself becoming more and more tired and this was reflected in the continually decreasing greens. An internal argument took place, the rational Lambretta being beaten by the greedy Lambretta. On the very last race of the day my reactions were ridiculously slow and 60% of the profit regained after the initial disaster was gifted back to the market.
The third positive, strangely not one I had been previously forced to learn - know when to stop. Making any profit means a good day's trading but coming back from a big dent and picking up all these positives made it a fantastic day.

Wasn't really that interested in the England game other than to see how well the team continued to gel. When England scored though, the market presented a great opportunity to back England and back 1-1 without any real fear of loss. It could've been arbed but I pushed the profit on to the 1-1 as Spain looked like getting the equaliser. They were, as ever, a joy to watch. Surprisingly, so were England. Very well organised at the back,  steadfast in midfield and industrious up front. Scott Parker is a revelation to this team and epitomises the spirit that has so long been lacking in the England squad.
I've already backed England for Euro2012, had another go on Saturday and will add to it over the remaining games leading up to next Summer. We haven't beaten Sweden in 43 years but I'll be surprised if we don't tomorrow. Worth a dutch I think.

No football.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Friday, 11 November 2011

Commerce, the X Factor and the size of the opportunity.

I'm sitting on a busy train,
making my way to London to get drunk, play cards and be silly with my mates. It's been hectic few days and this is the first chance I've had to update the blog.
Soon I'll be catching up with a mate. Amongst many other things, we'll be discussing trading the X Factor. So far, it's gone very well for me, that was until Frankie did a bit too much nosebag and royally farked up my green book. More annoyingly, Amelia Lily has never been out of the betting, somebody knew something. Every time I looked at the market, I thought about having a silly fiver, then changed my mind. That fiver would now be worth about £450. There's a stand on my desk which states "Opportunities always look bigger going than coming." Never more true than now.

Further to recent posts about trading psychology, there's another aspect worth considering. You cannot be an overly moralistic or principled person of you are going to succeed. Sports trading is not commerce, buying something for a quid and selling it for two is commerce. Rinsing another trader's account because you knew the market better is sports trading. If this question never raises itself to you, you have the perfect mindset for trading. You might also be a callous bastard, but you could be a fairly wealthy one.

Nag trading continues to go from strength to strength. Tuesday still remains my best day yet but Wednesday and Thursday were both better than the previous best. One race on Thursday bagged more than 400% of stake. Stakes are due to go up in December, it might get really scary then.

Still no football for me. A welcome day off.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Commerce, the X Factor and the size of the opportunity.

I'm sitting on a busy train,
making my way to London to get drunk, play cards and be silly with my mates. It's been hectic few days and this is the first chance I've had to update the blog.
Soon I'll be catching up with a mate. Amongst many other things, we'll be discussing trading the X Factor. So far, it's gone very well for me, that was until Frankie did a bit too much nosebag and royally farked up my green book. More annoyingly, Amelia Lily has never been out of the betting, somebody knew something. Every time I looked at the market, I thought about having a silly fiver, then changed my mind. That fiver would now be worth about £450. There's a stand on my desk which states "Opportunities always look bigger going than coming." Never more true than now.

Further to recent posts about trading psychology, there's another aspect worth considering. You cannot be an overly moralistic or principled person of you are going to succeed. Sports trading is not commerce, buying something for a quid and selling it for two is commerce. Rinsing another trader's account because you knew the market better is sports trading. If this question never raises itself to you, you have the perfect mindset for trading. You might also be a callous bastard, but you could be a fairly wealthy one.

Nag trading continues to go from strength to strength. Tuesday still remains my best day yet but Wednesday and Thursday were both better than the previous best. One race on Thursday bagged more than 400% of stake. Stakes are due to go up in December, it might get really scary then.

Still no football for me. A welcome day off.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 9 November 2011

The best nag day ever.

Yesterday was not just the greatest nag trading day I've ever had, it surpassed my previous best by a staggering 81%! Of the 19 races traded, every single one was traded to profit and the average profit figure per race was 114.6% of stake. By the end of the last race, I had accrued almost 22% of the target I set for the entire month.
The markets, in my opinion, behaved a little strangely, though I don't attribute yesterday's success to this. In fact, I got the impression someone was trying a new type of market manipulation which, if anything, made life a little more difficult than usual.
Pride, as they say, comes before a fall but it's not the amount of profit made, nor is it the number of successful races/trades that make yesterday so successful. A day like yesterday validates, qualifies and quantifies just how much my nag trading is improving and reinforces that all the time, effort and money has been totally worthwhile.
There are no expectations for today, I've learnt that lesson before, the hard way. Today is another trading day and it may bring similar success or not, the important thing is that I know days like yesterday, like losing days, can and will happen.

No football today.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 8 November 2011

If successful, what would you do next?

Recent posts have mentioned what the difficulties are in becoming a sports trader and also the pros and cons of actually making it to full time trading. One thing not fully flagged up was; What are the reasons for becoming a trader? If you are currently striving, learning and endeavouring to reach a level where you can live comfortably from sports trading profits, what are your reasons for doing so?
You might say, I want to be my own boss, maybe you're doing it to have more time, perhaps you just want to earn more money than you do now.
So, lets say you've made it. You are your own boss, you have more time and you earn twice as much as what you did when you were employed. Now what are you going to do?
I won't lie, it's bloody great just having the above, though that novelty will not last. What will you do with the extra time, the extra money, the extra freedom?
Coming from a corporate background, my habit is to set goals to achieve and I do this every year. For 2011 they were to finish our home re-furb - I've been carrying a bit of timber so I wanted to get a lot fitter - lastly, there was a financial target that I wanted to hit. (We three are to become four in the New Year and I wanted to be sure the additional expenditure could be covered).
Work is being finished on Lambretta Towers as I type, much of it has been done by me. I haven't been in such good shape since my late teens and confidence is high that by Xmas Eve, the financial target will be hit.
None of the above could've been done were I still in gainful employment, certainly not in the same time frame.
Next year's goals are already being finalised and will be on my office wall, as this year's were, before January 1st.
If you won the lottery, after you've bought the houses, the cars, the gadgets, had the holidays and dabbled in philanthropy, what would you do after that? It's that kind of thinking except with a much greater sense of  achievement.

Not even bothering to look at the in-play coupon today.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 7 November 2011

Reilly's on the blower again

Where as all my previous, pre nag trading, Saturdays were spent jumping in and out of the football markets, now it's necessary for me choose my football trades in the morning and spend the afternoon rinsing the nag markets.
The three trades chosen for Saturday went perfectly. The Newcastle v Everton game was built around the 1-1 and included 2-1. Nice green.
The Arsenal v WBA dutch was built around the 2-1, I did expect a goal from the Baggies but 3-0 was included.
Chelsea, as expected, scored the text book away win.
Nags went swimmingly and this week Betfair managed to keep everything working until just before end of play. Today, however, they've managed to royally f@ck it up again and no trading can be done on this moody, miserable, Monday afternoon.
Sunday was equally as good as Saturday. Nags went brilliantly, despite only two cards. Football was fantastic -
Laid Leicester @ 1.97, they lost.
Laid the draw at Motherwell, came good eventually.
Laid Wolves at 1-0, @ 1.37, shot out to 2.34 after the equaliser.
Arbed the draw and 1-1 (see below) in both the Wolves and Fulham games. Nice green on both.
Dutched the Bolton v Stoke game. Small red.
X Factor trading on both nights went really well and, whilst I still have a small red on him, I don't expect Craig Colton to win and the green on all others is too good to hedge. Frankie staying was a massive boost to my book and Marcus' price has collapsed to around 4's. Bloody shame BF aren't running a book on the US version.

I've been tweeting some of my trades and yesterday did so for both draw and 1-1 arbs. This is a trade I use often and, though it's not for everyone, it proves very profitable for me. When the favourite scores in a game where the draw price is quite low, often the market will reset with the draw price still fairly low and may not be that much higher than it was pre KO. Usually though, the 1-1 price will be out of kilter and it's possible to back 1-1 and lay the draw for a nicely arbed profit. 2-2 or 3-3 are dangers but I will never take on a game where these scores have featured in recent games or H2H's.

No trading for me today.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 5 November 2011

Sah dur day!

Hoorah for the weekend. A plethora of sport and opportunities.
It's been a tough and somewhat sparse week. I'm looking forward to the busy-ness of the afternoon, jumping from one market to the next, spotting the potential and jumping on it.
Thursday's Lazio v Zurich draw was looking a little dodgy but Lazio got the winner on 62 minutes. Decent enough green.
Today, I shall be mostly trading, the Blackburn v Chelsea draw. Dutching the Arsenal v W. Brom and the Newcastle v Everton games. Chelsea have a huge point to prove and are likely to make this a text book away win. Arsenal should win but only Swansea have kept a clean sheet against the Baggies this season, so the dutch will be based around 2-1. Newcastle are without their new star Obertan but Everton are without Maroune Fellaini. Market suggests U2.5, my dutch will be around the 1-1 but will definitely include the overpriced 2-0.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 3 November 2011

The markets are a string of opportunity.

Lambretta Junior's little brother is due in January and we've been clearing out Lambretta Towers to make way for the new arrival. Essentially, this means everything Mrs. Lambretta no longer wants in the Ironing Room, soon to become Nursery, has to be crow barred into the little remaining cupboard space in my office. Which means it's me who has to sacrifice my own stuff in order to fit other stuff in.
Whilst going through what stuff to throw out, I found an old journal that I used to write notes in when I first began trading. Most of it is drivel to me now but there are a couple of passages that, given my newly regained verve and enthusiasm for nag trading, are very apt and relevant. The passages are notes made when I read the book Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. Though it's aimed at stock traders, a great deal of it relates to nag trading.
One quote states (1) "The market is not your enemy or adversary. It is a string of opportunity." This I know now to be true but I remember the fury and frustration and thinking the market was working and conspiring against me.
There are many other little gems (2) "The market is a neutral entity that owes me nothing." (3) "Do not block information that conflicts with what you want to happen." (4) "Take absolute responsibility".
Then there are those that border on existentialism (5) "Be certain that certainty does not exist. All trades are random".
The one I like most is (6) "Mistakes are signposts to where focus is needed".
Though it's been a long time since I read the book or the notes, it's obvious now that the messages and ideas sank in and I employ them daily. As such, I would highly recommend the book to anyone thinking of trading nags. (You will notice each above quote is numbered. I have given layman's translations at the bottom of the page).

Last night was a bit hit and miss. Leeds were a massive let down. I knew the game had the potential to go a bit pear shaped but 0-4 at home...
Wasn't posted but I dutched the Derby v Cardiff game too. Basing it around the 1-1. Backed 0-1 and 0-2 at HT. Fell asleep reading the Mayan Prophecies and woke up to 0-3 FT. Thankfully the Inter game went as expected, 100%. The Benfica draw price never went low enough for me to get involved but the early goal saw the price fly up as high as 10's.
Not much about today. Lazio v Zurich looks interesting, a draw is no good to either team, with three of the group fighting for second.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

1) Enter, now. Scalp, there. You missed it.
2) See above
3) It's gone the wrong way. Get the f@ck out.
4) That's your own f@cking fault.
5) How the f@ck did that happen?
6) Stop f@cking about and do it properly.

Wednesday, 2 November 2011

Just a quick one

Yesterday's footy went well. The BATE v AC Milan game was easily dutched. Only four scores taken there; 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2. Job's a good 'un. Shame Dortmund couldn't find another but still a decent green.
Nags was not so good. Over confidence and expectancy ensured my first losing day for some time. However, it was the first day of the new fiscal month and the timing could not have been better, now I know I'll be properly focused for the rest of November.

Tonight I'll be dutching the Leeds v Blackpool game. 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 2-2. Only going for the four from the off as this could easily go into Over 4.5 territory.
Draw wise, the Benfica v Basel price has been coming in all morning, along with the Benfica drift. If it gets low enough, I'll take it on. I like the look of the Inter v Lille game too. Inter won over there 0-1, Ranieri is finding his feet with the team and vice versa, plus Inter will want to secure the group. The draw looks well worth taking on to me but I'll scalp the 0-0, in case the winner comes late.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 1 November 2011

Month end. The first full month trading nags.

On the 1st of each month, as any business should, I take time to review what and how much has been achieved. Many of you will know that I recently became a member of a nag trading service which, without exaggeration, has transformed my P&L. The first 10 days of using the service were in September, and they showed the promise of what could be done. A very ambitious financial target was set for October. That target was reached with a day to spare and having that day spare meant an additional day to achieve November's target, which is almost double that of October.
Many traders don't believe in setting targets, it can lead to over-trading, trading over aggressively and general chasing. Wouldn't disagree with any of that but my background is corporate and I have to have a goal to achieve. That said, my targets are for the month not for the day. If, when approaching the end of the month, the target seems overly optimistic, in order that I don't over-trade, I can re-forecast. That too comes from a corporate background.
So, the nag bank has increased by 298% since the beginning of the month. The football bank has grown by a whopping 750%. Roll on November.

Tricky night last night. Valarenga were totally off the boil, a small red after Fredrikstad went 1-2 up. The Stoke v Newcastle game did as I thought it might, going over 2.5 goals with an unpredictable scoreline. It was one of the very rare occasions when I dutched 6 scores instead of 5 - 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 1-2. Took cover on 2-2 and 1-3 but, with time left in what was a dodgy game, after the 1-3, more cover was needed and only a scratch could be found. Better scratch than red, always.

Tonight's fixtures are not easy. Dortmund looks a good shout but the price is just on the high side. AC Milan should beat the boys from the tractor factory, but it's cold over there and the tie is as good as done. May dutch that one with 1-1 and 1-2. The rest will be in-play.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 31 October 2011

The reasons why you should.

The last two posts have focused on how tough it is to get going as a trader, how to safeguard and how to overcome the psychological barriers. All of which reads like this job is really tough and blah, blah, blah. It is hard work, of course it is, but show me a job that isn't and I'll show you a job you're bored with.
Being a full time trader means you answer to no one, (maybe the wife/significant other), you work when you want and, best of all, you get to watch sport all the live long day and, if you're any good, get paid for the privilege.
This morning my Xmas shopping began. At noon I'll pick up my son from nursery and we'll go for a nice lunch. Only after this will my working day really begin.
Trading may not be my career for the rest of my working life but right now I wouldn't be doing anything else.
If you want to be a trader, if you know you can make a living from the sporting markets and are willing to do what's necessary, then you will succeed. Never jeopardise the most important things, always have a back up plan. But, when you're ready, remember being defeated is only temporary, giving up will make it permanent.

Saturday was a perfect example of why trading can be so rewarding. The four dutched games went really well. The Wigan and Sunderland games only needed late adjustments to secure profit. The Everton v Man U game needed nothing. The Chelsea v Arsenal game was hard work. I backed AUQ at HT, when the game hit 2-3 I needed a goal from either side. Another from Arsenal gave me a scratch, a third from Chelsea would mean a cheap lay of 3-3 and I was really confident of a winner should that happen. Mata's sensational equaliser made it 3-3 and the price nose dived to 1.8. I dived in and Arsenal collared a nice profit from the lay and the AUQ back.
Didn't seem to be huge amounts of liquidity in the nag markets on Saturday but of 24 races traded, 22 were winners.
The later W. Brom v Liverpool game was easily dutched. Cover was taken on 0-3 at HT but never needed.
15.77% added to the nag bank and 6% to the football bank.

This year's X Factor is utter dishwater, the wife and I are really enjoying the US Version. To make the UK show more interesting, I've been trading the Winners Market since last week. With the exception of Craig Colton, I have a green book. Sophie was very cheap to lay on Saturday. I got Marcus Collins last week at 27's, Little Mix at 55's, Kitty at 42's, Frankie at 160. Laid the Risk at 3.75 and Janet Devlin at 3.1. Janet is still favourite but young girls are the main voters for this show, I'll green some up next week and leave lumps on Marcus and The Risk.

Draw pick for today is Valarenga v Fredrikstad. Valarenga have a chance for Europa League qualification, whilst Fredrikstad are likely to be focusing on their upcoming game with Start, with whom they are fighting to stay out of the remaining relegation slot.
Stoke V Newcastle should be a good game. The market expects a low scorer and on paper it should be. I'll be dutching the low scores but it wouldn't surprise me to have to make some smart moves in the latter part of the game.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 29 October 2011

All by myself, alone.

Yesterday's post listed how I might start my trading career, if I had my time again. Thanks to gundulf, a very knowledgeable and successful part time trader, another very valid point was raised. Gundulf is very rare in that he has no desire or design for his own trading to become anything more than the part time hobby it is. Specifically, there is one good reason for that. As a full time, professional sports trader you will spend 95% of your working day alone. That suits some people down to the ground, it doesn't suit gundulf.
Other than a few Skype chats, sat in a room with only sports commentators, statistical research and or the radio for company is how most days will pan out.
Overcoming the psychological aspects of trading is one of the biggest battles any trader will face, and spending all day alone is another massive part of the psychology involved. It should never be underestimated.

Sheff Utd v Exeter is the only draw pick for today, more money needed pre KO.

Today's dutched scores are;
Everton v Man - 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-2
Chelsea v Arsenal - 2-1, 3-1, 2-2, 2-0, 1-1
Sunderland v Villa - 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-0
Wigan v Fulham - 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1.

You can read gundulf's blog at http://soccercompounding.blogspot.com/2011/10/early-goals-profiting-from-them-and.html

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Friday, 28 October 2011

Laying the right foundation

An email arrived yesterday which, in short, asked "When do you think is the right time to turn pro?"
Firstly, I was flattered that someone would ask me such a question. Whilst my living comes from trading sports, there are many who are more successful than I. But the question forced me to re-examine my own entry into this numerical world and ask myself if I would do it that way again. The short answer is - No ****ing way!
It would bore you to read how much time and money was spent blundering my way to profitability, suffice to say though, mine is a story not that dis-similar to many. The only real difference being a number of advantageous elements to my situation that allowed me to keep going, in order to reach the level I am at today.
On realising I was not really qualified to answer the question from personal experience, much of the evening was spent thinking of how, were it done again, would I do it differently. There are many smaller aspects to his answer which, in truth, should be absolute givens, so they won't be listed here but the fundamental aspects for me would be;
1) My part time/spare time trading profits would have to amount to more than my current salary, on a pro rata basis.
2) After working out all monthly outgoings, my bank account would have enough to cover 12 months of this figure.
3) My trading bank would be considerably reduced. If my trading is as good as I think and points 1&2 are in place, confidence and ability will ensure the bank grows safely and rapidly. If I got it wrong and my trading is not as good as I thought or hoped, I can begin again.
If you're reading the above and thinking "My current income won't allow me to do that", you're already answering the question. If your trading is at a high enough standard to be considering going full time, you will be able to achieve the above through your own trading profits. The old adages are the best.

Stonking day yesterday. Added 13% to the nag bank and 9% to the football bank. The Palermo game went as expected. Confidence in the game was such that I dutched the scores in it too, along with the low scores in the Espanyol game. Clean sweep.
It's a day off for this trader.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 27 October 2011

...but the rent

Been a decent week, so far. Dutched the Arsenal v Bolton game and the 2-1 came in nicely, though Bolton scoring first meant having to take some cover. Dutched all four of last night's Carling Cup games. Had City down for the win but 1-3 was the highest I took. Were it not for their goal fest, the night would have been 100% successful. The late come back of Newcastle was particularly profitable.
Trading the Correct Score Market offers terrific value so, to go alongside The Filters page, I'll write another explaining dutching in better detail and how I personally trade the scores.
Nags have been very good this week too. After examining my losing races, the objective this week has been to dramatically reduce this number of losing races, obviously, but, with equal importance, reduce the average loss figure on those losing races, which has meant trading with even more discipline and securing better profit. Touch wood, it continues.

Card is not good today. Swedish Play-Off, tough Primera fixtures, one Norwegian fixture with no consequence but one game does catch the eye - Palermo v Lecce. Goals and a home win expected, making the current draw price of 4.2 a little on the cheap side.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 25 October 2011

Knowing when and why

Much of my in-play, football trading time is now spent with one screen dedicated to Twitter. It's fascinating seeing what trades other people are making on which ever games are live. A lot of games wouldn't even reach my first filter list but somehow, some traders find enough of an angle and enough liquidity to trade them. A lot of what goes on is basic stuff; laying the current score, laying the dog, laying 2.5/1.5 goals etc. The one that comes up most frequently is laying the draw at HT. This makes no sense to me at all.
The idea seems to be lay the draw then trade out at 1.9/1.8, nothing wrong in the maths necessarily, until you take one stat into account - The quietest periods for goals in the average game are 1-15 minutes and 45-60 minutes. Laying the draw across the first 15 minutes of the second half offers very little, if any, value. Fair enough, if the game is 2-2 you might expect more goals but at 1-1 or especially 0-0, the price of the trade is out of kilter with what is statistically likely to happen.
Now, the busiest period for goals in the average game is between 60-90+minutes. At this stage of the game, the price of the draw is a great deal smaller than at HT and it's statistically more likely that a goal will be scored. The only difference is there is no trade out point, which makes it gambling rather than trading. However, this is one of those gambles that only needs to be right 51% of the time to make it worthwhile, less if you enter the market correctly. When all others are exiting their trades at the 70minute/2.00 mark, the market is offering a much better price for a much greater chance. (40% of all goals are scored in the last half hour). That's value, in my opinion.

Standard stuff yesterday. The Brighton v West Ham game was anyone's guess. I dutched the 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 & 2-2 in-play but Brighton were really awful up front and created nothing. Came out with a small red. Nags went well.
Cup games, in-particular, Carling Cup games are usually a swerve for me, so I'll be going in-play with whatever's on the box.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 24 October 2011

Nice green on blood red Sunday

I didn't watch the Manc derby, some family time was taken instead. Needless to say, the car was nearly crashed when I learnt the result.
I was really surprised that Johnny Evans was still part of the United squad when this season began, particularly when you consider the likes of John O'Shea have gone. Evans, as you may have guessed, does not feature on my good defenders list. His faux pas was that of a petulant, lower league player but the fault for the loss, in my opinion, can be placed only at the feet of the manager. When I watched MotD and saw the players left on the bench, for one of their biggest games of the season, it was obvious Fergie only had himself to blame. During the post match interview he suggested his team had played suicide football by leaving themselves exposed on the flanks and playing as though they still had eleven men, whose instructions were they following? Even the best club manager of all time makes mistakes, though he may find it difficult to admit.

We got back with only 20 minutes of the QPR v Chelsea game missed. Chelsea were 1-0 down. A few minutes later Bosingwa was sent off and I jumped on a dutch of 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0. Then Drogba got his marching orders, job done. Talk about handing over the title on a plate. City couldn't believe their luck against a hap hazard United squad and now the only other challengers were fighting for a draw, which never came, against a newly promoted side. In truth, Chelsea were lucky not to have had more reds.

Some nice results with Saturday's dutched scores. Sunderland and Newcastle left it late, cover was taken on the 0-0's at HT. Sunderland's opener coming so late meant 0-2 could be taken for a profit instead of just a scratch. Villa v West Brom ran according to plan. Shame about the Wolves 2-1.

Nothing for today. Brighton v West Ham is anybody's guess but it'll be watchable, and I might have a dabble in-play.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 22 October 2011

Going dutch.

Surprisingly few opportunities today. Newcastle v Wigan gets through the filters, though a little more research will be carried out. The Malaga v R. Madrid game should be a knock but there's something about it I just don't like. The same can be said for too many of the others. As my concentration will be firmly on this afternoon's nags, I've decided to dutch some Correct Scores in Prem games and trade them as they go.

Newcastle v Wigan - 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 2-2 & 3-1
Villa v W. Brom - 0-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 & 2-2
Bolton v Sunderland - 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 2-0 & 2-2
Currently available at 10's, very rare these days, the 2-1 at Wolves looks value.

My sister in-law is off to Stratford jumps today and asked if I had any good tips. The usuals came out... "Don't stand up in canoe." "...eat yellow snow." "...throw stones at policemen." But I did have a quick glance at the card, told her which ones I thought might go well. It's been so long since I studied a card, I'm curious now as to how they will do. The suggestion was Each Way unless below 5's.

Morochius 2.20
Rimini 2.50
Otage de Brion 3.20
Farleigh House 4.25

Decent day yesterday. Added 18.58% with the nags and the Fortuna v Rostock game was text book. 100%.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Friday, 21 October 2011

Thank Crunchie..!

That's Robin Friday. 
Normally Friday's are short on time for me, but I've damaged a tendon in my foot and am confined to barracks.
Despite being a full time trader for getting on for three years, like anyone in a 9 to 5, I still get really excited about Friday. Those in a 9-5 might be excited about having time with friends and family, relaxing etc, my excitement comes from knowing that the Weekend was invented for sport and Friday means there is a plethora of sporting action about to unfold, and that means opportunity.
The liquidity in nag trading goes through the roof on a Saturday and, with tomorrow having the first of this season's Aintree meetings, there should be a glut.
Like most, I'll be watching the Manc derby but, unless something crops up in-play, it will be in spectator mode only.

In waiting for the Stoke v Maccabi match, for some reason I tortured myself by watching the Krakow v Fulham game. It was like being at school in a lesson you hate, when you feel like a half hour must have passed, only to find the clock is just two minutes further forward. They should get the Pools panel in for some games to save everyone the trouble.
Last night's trade went well. Stoke kept up their impressive run in the Europa League and secured 100% by HT. The game looked spiky from the off and I stole a price in the Sending Off market, Jerome duly obliged on 42 minutes. The draw price of 4.9, to me, seemed good value but the market dipped as low as 4.5 before jumping back up just before KO.

One pick for today - Fortuna D. v H. Rostock. The away side are new to B2 and are finding it tough. Fortuna are 100% at Home and remain unbeaten this campaign.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 20 October 2011

As per the script.

Decent day yesterday. Nothing spectacular with the nags. Football went really well, 100% on the Leicester draw. The previous three H2H's had been 4-2, 4-1 & 4-1, so I backed 3-1 and traded that out for 80% at HT. Jumped on the 0-0 in Marseille and chased it down to half time and greened that for 120%.
Barcelona were 1-0 up at HT and the stats said they'd had just 2 shots on target, Over 2.5 was still 1.39, which meant the Over 4.5 was low too, I laid it and the game finished 2-0. The Czech side can be justly proud of a great effort against the world's best.
Many people seemed to be giving Arsenal a hard time during last night's game. Fair enough they had a number of chances they should've taken, but so did Marseille. Many traders, including this one, give the French leagues a wide berth because they are notoriously low scoring, so it was surprising so many were critical that Arsenal didn't win sooner and by more. Deschamps is a master at grinding out results against the bigger sides, he and his team have cause to feel a little disappointed this morning.

A little thin on the ground today and the sparse card could throw up some odd results. However, Stoke have been remarkably consistent and very, very good in this European campaign. Tonight sees the return of Jones, Huth and Sorensen. Whilst Maccabi Tel Aviv are a decent side and are definitely better than the standard within the Israel Premier League, this may be too big a test for them. The draw looks cheap to me at the currently available 4.9.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 19 October 2011

Money - The reason or the tool?


A lot of my time as youngster, from about eight onward, was spent playing cards. My father taught me how to play 5 & 7 stud, draw poker, Brag, Gin, Crib (one for his knob) and many other games, Newmarket is a particular favourite. Notably, when we played them, all these games involved some financial element. My father knew the rules but not the subtleties, the time soon came when my pocket money was regularly boosted by 5p a point Gin or sniffing out his bluff in 7 stud, his favourite game.
This early grounding ensured my enthusiasm for the game continued and much of the last decade has been spent round a poker table in Fulham along with numerous trips to Vegas, taking in the World Series.
As one does, I immersed myself in the game, playing, reading about playing, reading about other people playing, watching people playing etc, etc. Throughout all I read and learnt, there was one message that continuously came through, starting all the way back from way before the game became mainstream and popular: Money is nothing more than the tradesman's tool.
All of these players acknowledged that money is necessary to live but, in plain terms, money was the tool that allowed them to live the life they wished to, which was sitting round the table playing cards.
Remembering this, led me to ask myself the question above, the reason or the tool? Am I trading because I love trading, because I just want to make money without having to work for someone else or because it affords me the working hours and spare time I want? All three is the obvious answer but ask yourself the same question and answer honestly, that answer might give you a greater insight and help focus even further on what you want your trading to achieve.

Monday was a tough day on the nags. I broke one of my own rules and rightly paid the price.
The Start v Brann game went nice and smoothly for 100%. The Halmstad v Djurgarden game ended with a scratch at 1-3.
Much better on the nags yesterday, 14.73% added. A little gizmo has now been employed to ensure Monday's mistake is not made again. Scratch on the Leeds game after pushing the green on the win. Unusually, the Blackpool trade was left to run and a very late winner captured 100%. I arbed the 1-1 and draw and backed 2-1 and 3-1 in the City v Villareal game, both of which delivered a decent profit, so a good day all round.

One pick for today - Leicester v Watford. Much as I love the Glory Hornet Boys (I was born in Watford), they couldn't win an argument right now.
Really enjoying live, in-play tweeting. Will be on-line for tonight's CL games...

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 17 October 2011

A great weekend.

It's been a fabulous weekend. The Liverpool v Man Utd game was the usual anti-climax. Still a good game but they rarely live up to the hype these days. I dutched 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 at HT, which left a very pleasing result indeed. Managed to watch most of the game before the racing began.
The racing went to a whole new level on Saturday. This can only be due to the quality of racing and the amount of money it attracts, but after trading 19 races, with only 1 small loss, a staggering 35.85% was added to the trading bank. At times it really did seem like it was possible to simply pluck money out.
The Schalke game was let down by the red card. It's very rare for me to waste time and effort trying to scrape a green in that situation. Redding up at 3.95 was more than acceptable. The Chelsea game went simply enough and the red from Schalke was recovered.

Sunday is usually a day off for me but Mrs. Lambretta took Junior out for the day and I was left to entertain myself. For the first time in ages I sat and watched the football with the interest of a football fan rather than a trader. The Birmingham v Leicester game was utter dishwater, I did trade the 1-1 and came out for scratch on 2-0 but that was purely to make it more interesting than it was. The draw price on Arsenal was too low and then the available 9.2 after the first goal was too high, this made for a very nice and very quick green.
It was my intention to relax and enjoy the day's sport rather than working but the lure of the racing markets was too much and I got involved. A very marked difference between the two days and the lack of liquidity, and a little over confidence, meant only a minuscule profit was made.
No trading or betting on the Newcastle v Spurs game. A cracking game to watch, really enjoyed seeing both sides get stuck in. Gutierrez was magnificent.

The Scandinavian leagues are coming to a close, which usually presents some opportunities. Halmstad are done for but Djurgarden will want to avoid dropping in to the relegation play-offs. Market suggests over 2.5 but I'm dutching 0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 1-1 & 1-2.
Both Start & Brann have plenty to fight for, the market suggests a win either way and the draw looks cheap. Goals expected.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 15 October 2011

And the answer is...

My previously posted dilemma asked the question; Given my new found success in trading nags and the free time it afforded me, should I trade nags, football or both?  The answer, of course, is both.
The potential to make a great deal more profit from trading both sports is too good. The major concern was having less time and a reduced quality of life, the solution then is to find a way of trading both sports and doing so within a given time frame. My brain would've worked this out eventually but, thankfully, yesterday's trading served me the answer on a plate.
Short on time as I am most Friday's, an hour was spent confirming the Valarenga v Viking game was the trade pick. Then off to get Lambretta Jr. for our traditional, weekly lunch date at Waitrose, before a swimming lesson and then his guaranteed nap in the car. I finally got to my desk in time for the 3.35. This race and the following twelve were all traded to a profit. Not one losing race in thirteen. Not only that but a massive 13.60% was added to the trading bank. So, the answer was clear. Even on a day when time is already short, the opportunities to generate very good profit and enjoy the life I have are still available.

This week two emails have asked why there is no P&L published on this blog. Two simple reasons for this 1) What I earn is between me, Mrs. Lambretta and the bank. 2) My P&L is completely irrelevant to anyone else's.
The idea that most sports traders make enormous amounts of money and continually receive calls from some fella called Riley, asking for his life back, are complete myth. Sadly, such myth is perpetuated by numerous people. I read the Bet Angel blog recently and Peter suggested he'd made £700+ before finishing his morning ablutions. I don't doubt that's true but Peter is in a minority on his own.
If you are serious about your trading, do not waste time looking at anyone else's P&L other than your own. It serves to do nothing more than put pressure on yourself because you cannot understand why everyone else is making so much in comparison to you, the truth is very few are...

Great football card today. Man Utd have not been really tested away yet and both W Brom and Stoke gave them a run. Chelsea's record at home to Everton is not great and I'll be laying them and backing Correct Scores. Today's LTD pick is Schalke v Kaiserslautern.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Friday, 14 October 2011

Decisions, decisions and a swinging P&L


Yesterday was not a good day. After writing yesterday's post, unwittingly, I had forced myself into a frame of mind that was a total disaster waiting to happen. My approach to the markets was all wrong because I wanted the results of the day to show me where the greater advantages lay and therefore make the decision for me. In doing so, my nag trading was too aggressive. There were numerous big winning trades but these were interspersed with three massive reds, the third took me into minus figures for the day, at which point I stopped, walked away and returned to my desk for the game between TPS v MyPa.
Text book stuff, really. TPS had an opportunity to push for a Europa league spot but that was scuppered by the late equaliser. Decent green.
With a couple of races left at Kempton, the software was fired up again and a decent profit was made from the 8.20 and 8.50. Short on time today but the target is to do nothing more than trade to a modest, average figure across each race, rather than push for the big green.

There is one game for today. Valarenga have a chance to leapfrog Tromso and take third spot whilst Viking have little to play for.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 13 October 2011

Racing, football or both?


What a dilemma. Not only was yesterday by far the best horse trading day yet, a whopping 11.44% was added to the trading bank. Amazing. Especially when you consider the day did not start well.
Trading football, when done properly, takes up a great deal of time with all the research and analysis. The best part of the day is taken up trawling through stats and numbers then, of course, you need to be at your desk and, ideally, watching the game to make the best of it and secure a position. There are many who take the same approach to trading horses and I'm aware most of them are enormously successful but that level of endeavour is not for me. This current nag trading set-up has no call for massive research. When punting, it was enjoyable for me to go through the form and hopefully find a winner but that was more to do with being right as opposed to making money.
Football research is laborious but my love for the game as well as the need to make a profit ensure there is some enjoyment in the work. Nag research is a great deal more involved and, without a huge passion for the sport, has the potential to become tedious. Being able to sit down not too long before the first race with, comparatively, very little preparation is a great attraction to me and the spare time this creates is more than welcome with a young family. Were I to trade both sports, to the same degree, the profit margin would certainly be greater but the quality of life would be guaranteed to suffer and, after all, it was quality of life that led me to this profession. Much pondering is needed.

Whilst my brain works through this dichotomy, it is necessary to continue with both in order to aid the decision. Consequently, we have a football pick for today - TPS v MyPa.

Whatever you trade stay green.

Wednesday, 12 October 2011

Raising the stakes

Such has been the success of my trading in the racing markets, yesterday the decision was made to increase the standard stake amount, it was doubled. In relation to the total trading bank, the overall liability is far from huge but, as still very much a novice at this, increasing the stake and liability was a big step. I took the precaution of requesting advice from Mark at horseracingtraders.com before doing so and his response gave me enough confidence to go for it.
And, as could have been expected, based on the average profit for each day last week, the profit doubled too. The increased liability had no bearing on my ability to trade comfortably and effectively. Even so, it will be a lot more than a week before I consider increasing again. The really exciting thing is how this new string to my bow has ensured that a nice profit was made when football offered few or no opportunities. Plus, during the dark days of Winter, when staying in is all there is to do, trading nags will be a welcome way to fill the miserable afternoons.

No football again today but there might be something on the coupon tomorrow, from Finland.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 10 October 2011

Utd never cost me so much!


On Saturday we attended a charity auction in aid of the Downs Syndrome Association. As the auction began, Mrs. Lambretta made her way to the Ladies. She returned five minutes later to find me receiving a standing ovation for being the winning bidder on a Box at Old Trafford, for any game, including Champions League. I've never been to OT and to have the choice of game was too good an opportunity to miss. No, I couldn't afford it, really. And yes, I did receive the bollocking of all bollockings later. But sometimes, these things just have to be done. Plus, it's for a fantastic cause. 
Matthew Lorenzo was the compere, (remember him?), bloody good he was too. There were some other real bargains to be had, a Spurs shirt singed by VDV, signed Lions shirt, loads of Celtic and Rangers stuff and a huge array of non sport related bits. Much as it would've been good to pick up some more memorabilia, the likelihood of my still being married on Sunday morning may have been somewhat remote.

Saturday's trading was very good again, which is just as well. Couple of silly errors that stopped it being the best day yet but still comparable with the rest of the week.
I have received a couple of requests for the details of the service I signed up to. In relation to what this service has achieved for me already, the sign up cost is cheap. The support is personal, rapid and encouraging. 
I'm signed up, so there's no commission in this for me, I'm always happy to plug a service that I believe to be good. There is a limit to member numbers for, what will become on sign up, obvious reasons. http://horseracingtraders.com/ 

Along with a box at OT, Saturday delivered a raging hangover, which still has hold. No trading of any sort today. 

Whatever you trade, stay green. Whatever you buy, do it on your own.


Saturday, 8 October 2011

No danger

John Terry attempts the Farting Crane move, to no avail.
My last tweet of the evening read "Job done. 0-2. Staying in for the duration". Actually the liability was removed at HT and the game finished a scratch. England visibly relaxed after the first, which was clearly poor defending from JT, and switched off after the second.
There are more people in my village than in Montenegro, they have to be congratulated on achieving a major milestone in their very short history. 
Knowing they only needed the draw and proving they could rather easily beat Montenegro seemed enough for the players, this is reflected in the Winners Market price which, as expected, hasn't changed. With Rooney missing, it may change when the first game is announced, depending on the opponent. 
A pessimistic friend sent a text which read "Why are England so sh*t?", I've asked him to lay them to me at 15's, he hasn't responded yet...

Time is always short on Friday's, taking Lambretta Jr. swimming and the like. By the time the PC's were switched on, the lethargy had kicked in and, though a profit was made, only a few races were traded. Today will be full on.

Not even looking at the in-play coupon. Whatever you trade, stay green. 


Friday, 7 October 2011

The fear of success


Tuesday was the most successful day of horse race trading I've ever had. Just a couple of losing races, red screens were traded back into green and the profit figure was fantastic, for me anyway. When trading ended for the day, everything was closed down and a huge feeling of satisfaction and confidence came over me. That was, until I sat down to begin trading yesterday. Numerous questions flooded my head...Had it been a fluke? Was it simply down to luck? Would the markets act differently today? Could I trade as well again? These questions began to effect my attitude and by the time trading began for the first race, my confidence and optimism had all but been replaced by fear and doubt. 
These questions though were not the real issue. In truth, the question was - How could I handle the idea, if I was successful again, after all the time, money and endeavour that has been invested, it was now possible for me to trade horses profitably? I had a fear of winning.
The first race ended with a small red, which obviously increased the negative feelings already present. The second race ended with a much larger red. So, I stopped, took stock, sat quietly and mentally reviewed the winning trades from Tuesday, then mentally watched myself trading the races to come and doing so with profit. Took a deep breath and began trading again.
From that third race onward, I was back in the groove. More races than Tuesday were traded but, comparatively, yesterday had been as good as Tuesday. 
I'm not suggesting I've become Neo, seeing the world in numerical form. Nor is it possible for me to predict the future like the Oracle but maybe, just maybe, I might be plugged into the Matrix...

(BTW - I'm not a Sci-Fi nerd, it's just a good analogy)

Regular readers will know I've backed England to win Euro2012. The squad will look very different come next Summer and the announcement of the new manager, probably Harry, will be a massive boost. (Very sad to see Psycho has removed himself from the running). Tonight's game will have little effect on the price and the arrest of Rooney Sr. will, apparently, not effect the play of Jr.
For whatever reason England are poor at home. The 0-0 with Montenegro was totally unexpected and my guess is the squad will want this rectified and to top the group properly. Despite needing just a point, Capello has already made plain England are there for the win. I made a solemn promise not to touch the football markets until next week but, the draw price is a gift at 3.55. I will sneak some 0-0 pre game though, just in case.

A punter friend asked how confident I am that England would win Euro2012 - I reminded him I had backed Holland for last year's World Cup.

Whatever you trade, stay green. 

 

Thursday, 6 October 2011

A nose in front



So far, so good.

Yesterday's nag trading was by far the best yet. Confidence was such that, within my Camtasia recordings, I can be heard singing along to, amongst others, Ray Charles, Jackie Wilson and Portishead. There is definitely a great deal more opportunity in certain races than others (I'd like to be more detailed but that would be unfair on the service provider) and it hasn't been difficult to recognise why certain races have been losers for me. Happily though, the errors are decreasing daily and the profit is increasing.

During this period of footballing reflection, one experiment being carried out is trying to discover how predictive odds can be. Using a filter on just Fav odds (no higher than 1.8), Draw odds (between 4 - 5), Over 2.5 odds (up to 1.9) and 0-0 odds (minimum 12's), the goal is to see how many games finish with a win for the favourite, the dog or draw. The sample number is small right now but there has been just one away win and no draws. Always worth dabbling in these things as new things can always be discovered.
MarketMatcher is a great tool to use for stuff like this, as well as being a massive time saver for filtering the card. Again, I'm recommending this tool because it's good and the guy who brought it to market is one of the good ones, I'm not on a commission.

This break from football is doing the world of good. Having time in the evening is great but the sh*t they put on the TV these days...

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 4 October 2011

So glad it was a red.

Sounds crazy doesn't it? True though. Yesterday's trade was a 0-0 and I'm glad of it. It could've been avoided had I read what was in front of me. Amongst my stats was one indicator that should have stopped me getting involved. It wasn't ignored, you have to know something is there to ignore it, I simply didn't see it. Not only did this same indicator help me in avoiding a loss in Germany at the weekend, it actually prompted me to back 0-0, (as per Sunday's post). The reason I'm glad of the red is because it tells me, in no uncertain terms, I need to step away, take a proper break from football and come back with fresh eyes. It was my intention to lay off and look at things anyway but now it will be a full stop on football for at least a week. With the internationals, timing couldn't be better.

Conversely, the horse trading goes from strength to strength. Yesterday was the best profit day yet. There were still losing races and one which could have been a great deal worse but overall it was very good. Apart from the things I have picked up as a member of a new service and my very slowly increasing skill level, yesterday's success can be put down to just one thing - Camtasia. This piece of software allows you to record what's happening on your screen, so you can examine what was good and bad after the race. Using my Skype headset, I was able to talk through what I was doing and why, then laugh out loud and disagree with myself when watching it back. Using a tool like this instantly makes you more disciplined because you know you will be scrutinising yourself afterwards. They won't pay me and there's no link between me and them but, highly recommend giving it a go, there's a 30 day free trial.

Not even looking at the coupon... Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 3 October 2011

Peaks and troughs

Regular readers will remember the suggestion to back Spurs, as their fixture list, up to the game with Chelsea, would see them trade a lot lower than the price available at the time. Thanks to their relatively easy win over Arsenal, the price crashed. The game was also good for the season lay of Arsenal. I cannot recommend enough taking the time to go through the fixtures to find long and short term trades.

After the disaster that was Saturday, yesterday got right back to form with three nice trades. The Finnish game certainly didn't go as expected but green is green, no matter where it comes from. Hacken took an uncomfortably long time to find their winner but find it they did. Helsingborg was text book.

This week is the beginning of another international break. Ordinarily, I loathe these breaks as they decimate the coupons and leave very few good opportunities but I'm welcoming this one as it will give me time to review recent results, make changes where necessary and, in particular, it gives me two weeks to focus on trading horses, something which I have become very excited about and am very much enjoying. Plus, there's a new set of filters that need some tweaking before the leagues return.

One selection for today - Aalesund v Start

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Sunday, 2 October 2011

Sun burn ya red, red.

The blistering October heat and the markets had me red all over yesterday. Over confidence on the nag trading saw me get slammed and the Malaga v Getafe game went all wrong. I walked away when Malaga got their equaliser. This morning shows the gamblers would've had a result but that's not for me. I am aware many draw layers took a hit yesterday, particularly in Germany. That game and it's scoreline were my only saving grace on the day...


Bit short on time today, these are the picks - Hacken v Trelleborg - Helsingborg v Norrkoping - JJK v KuPS.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 1 October 2011

Haystack needles




On first glance, today's fixture list looked to have a great many opportunities. Goteborg should beat Mjallby but fourth spot is all but sewn up... Villa only seem to be able to draw these days and the recent H2H's with Wigan are not good. City should trounce Blackburn but the game fails on the first set of filters. Southampton should coast past Watford but the Hornets have a really nasty habit of scoring first. The list of filter failures goes on until we reach Malaga v Getafe (My thinking has just been confirmed by an Ian Erskine email). Fortunately I managed to get the price before the FTS hoards descend. This is definitely the only game for me.

Nice trade last night. Managed to get 50% stake matched at 4.8, price was 5.3 at KO. Hoped for a later goal but Heracles scored on 12 minutes. Thanks to getting the 4.8, I was able to take a decent green at HT, when the price was 9.4.

More success with the nag trading. Only traded 11 races yesterday with just two losers. As there are so few games to trade and as my only pick KO's at 9pm, I'll spend the afternoon trading nags and keep an eye on futbol24 to see if any other opportunities arise.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Friday, 30 September 2011

Udin't lay Celtic?



After the lay of Arsenal on Wednesday, at the still amazing 1.09, last night's game at Celtic Park presented yet another golden opportunity. Converting a penalty on 3 minutes Celtic's price plummeted, not to the same depths as Arsenal but low enough to confidently put in a lay and cover scores such as 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1. Udinese have had a very god start the season, particularly away so, I just couldn't see them coming away without a point, that was, until the 80th minute. I'd covered so wasn't concerned about a loss but despite all their pressure, it looked like they may not make it tell. Then the ref gave Udinese a fairly dodgy looking pen and I didn't look back. To have Celtic as low as 1.5 after going just one goal up, and after three minutes, is crazy. Based on UEFA Coefficient Table, Serie A is the fourth best league in Europe, and therefore the world, the SPL is seventeenth. Celtic are above the average SPL side so you might place them sightly higher but, all in all, Udinese play in a much tougher league, against much better opponents on a regular basis. As such, there is always a good chance they will come back against lower class sides, like last night. There is a link to the Wikipedia UEFA Coefficient table on Essential Sites and Tools, to the right of his post.

Yesterday's nag trading was a success! I made a few mistakes on Wednesday and decided that yesterday's goal would be to get that money back, I was £1 short. From 26 races I had 5 losers but the mistakes were caught early and big losses were avoided, feeling pretty confident. Not much time today but will do what I can.

Footy card is a bit thin on the ground again but there is one pick for me - Heracles v De Graafschap. Possibility the goal will come late, so I'll be dripping in the lay.

Whatever you trade, stay green.