BBC Sport | Football | World Edition

Wednesday, 31 August 2011

What is the real likelihood of England winning Euro 2012?

Invariably, the price for England to win a tournament is much lower than it should be, based on "home" money and history. Right now, England are 10's for Euro 2012, which isn't far away on my ratings, they have been as high as 12's.
Our group really is a very easy one and we should have done a great deal better than the three wins we've had. However, whilst Fabio will wish to leave on a high after this tournament, the really good work has and is likely to continue to be done by, your friend and mine, Psycho Stuart Pearce and his U21 squad. It is distinctly possible probable, he will fill Fabio's shoes and it would not be a surprise to hear this announced pre June 8th, next year.
Danny Rose, Phil Jones, Danny Welbeck, Jack Wilshere, Emmanuel Frimpong, Martin Kelly are just some of the players, from the U21 squad, currently playing for Premiership sides, who could be picked for the tournament. Add these very good, very skillful players to what is fast becoming the "Old Guard" and their might be a team with enough gumption to take on the might of Spain and Germany. A little dabble today at 10's, then adding here and there as we lead up to the tournament proper. I doubt they will trade that much higher, regardless of how bad they might be in the coming group games.

Update from Monday - Helsinki went as expected, going 0-2 up in the first half. Left a scratch (no loss) on the draw with a bigger green (profit) on the win. Nice trade.
The Rosenborg game ended 7-0. Instincts were right but if we don't have trading rules and filters to live by, we'd trade every game and be skint!

Awful card today. If you trade, stay green.

Monday, 29 August 2011

Almost too good to be true

After a weekend of matrimonial shenanigans, as soon as I got on the train to come home, the iBetmate app was open to find out what prices were available for the Man U v Arsenal game. Could barely believe my eyes when the Draw price came up at 4.6, an absolute gift. Arsenal were yet to score their first Premier League goal, their team was in total disarray and, though I have a great deal of respect for Arsene Wenger, the manager does seem to be missing a few too many tricks of late. The possibility of the Gunners coming away from Old Trafford with a point was far to remote for me. I laid the draw for a great deal more than I would were it a standard trade, as my confidence was high that the draw price would drift. Sure enough, ten minutes before KO, it was 5.6. All but my standard lay stake left in, potential profit was now huge, thanks to the drift.
Hadn't seen any football for more than 48 hours and the withdrawal was almost unbearable, this was made worse by the train companies deciding Bank Holiday Sunday was the ideal time to schedule engineering works, making my 1 hour journey into nearly 4 hours... 
For me, Man Utd looked frighteningly good. From the off they looked like they would run away with the game and final result (8-2, if you were on Mars) bears this out. After Welbeck got the first, it always looked like a white-wash and when VP missed the penalty, they were never coming back. An awesome performance. The injury to Welbeck was disappointing,  I was very much looking forward to seeing him against Buglaria on Friday. A cracking trade made all the better by the Arsenal price in the Winners Market drifting even further. 
Pretty trappy card today. Only one candidate for me - Haka v Helsinki. I've placed my lay at 5's but if I'm not matched, I'll leave it.
Rosenborg v Odd Grenland almost made it on to the sheet but unless Rosenborg can find a two goal lead, the chances of making enough profit are slim. Plus OG have failed to score in just two of their last 10 away league games.

Whatever you trade, stay green. 

Friday, 26 August 2011

I should do this for a... Oh, wait a minute.

Cracking night last night. Was really unsure about the Stoke game, based on one particular stat, the percentage chance of them scoring the first goal was below my limit. However, after taking into account the UEFA Coefficient placings, 1 & 14 respectively, my confidence was cemented and the draw was laid.
I drip fed the lay, as is my want, down to 20 minutes and the first was scored on 23 minutes. This really looked to have sucked the lifeblood out of any Thun challenge and Stoke took advantage, sticking away 2 more before HT. They were available to lay at that point at1.01, I took advantage and exited.

The Young Boys v Braga "find an angle game" must have been great to watch. Braga got the invaluable goal they needed but YB were never likely to go down without a fight and managed to equalise on 61 minutes. I'd backed 0-0, 0-1 & 1-1 to cover a back of Over 2.5, so I was in a scratch position at 1-1. YB then had a man sent off, not always good if you want goals but Braga went ahead again on 78minutes, ensuring a profit. YB then equalised once more to make it 2-2 but Braga took the tie on away goals and this trader took the green.

At a wedding all weekend, gutted to be missing some great games and some great trading. Such is life.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 25 August 2011

Why bother turning up?

 Whilst my three trades went well, it was disappointing to watch a lacklustre performance from Twente. Normally prolific in their own league and on home turf, they looked determined more to stop Benfica scoring than getting the single goal they needed. Benfica fired 7+ shots on target before the break, Twente didn't manage any. I'd laid the draw in this game and was confident it would come good. They took a little longer than hoped but eventually the goals came and in quick succession, making 100% profit, rather than trading out.

After looking at the team sheet just before KO, Everton's line up seemed decent and strong, so I laid this draw too. I was hoping to try a new "Dog Scored First" get out strategy on the Blackburn game but they were 3-0 up inside 6 minutes, so another 100% there. As Sheffield United went 0-1 up at Goodison, I went to implement the new strategy there, instead Everton found a quick equaliser. Though Everton's avg win margin was just 1.12, conversely, their percentage chance of finding a two goal lead was 62%, so I stuck it out. Waiting for the market to settle after 2-1, they scored again and I left that to run for another 100% profit. Three out of three ain't bad, especially when expecting one to go wrong.

On to today's fodder...
The stats don't read well but Stoke should try and kill the tie at home to Thun. They play W. Brom away on Sunday and Pulis will want his boys safe and sound for that. Not 100% on it yet but it looks a likely candidate.
Often, I'll look for games that the market is completely unsure of, where an argument can be made for any result. These games are easy to identify using the 0-0 (around 12's), Over 2.5 (around 2's) and the draw (3.5 - 3.75). Some in-depth research is required but finding an angle on these games will often hold a great deal of value. Just because the market can't find something, doesn't mean we traders can't. Tonight's candidates;

Young Boys v Braga.
YB have kept just one clean sheet at home from their last eighteen competitive games. Going for Over 2.5 with some cover in Correct Score. Small stakes. 
Helsingborg v Standard
Helsingborg rarely lose at home but Standard are 1-0 up and may park the bus. Leaving this one alone. 

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 24 August 2011

Cup games, they're not for everyone.

Last night's Carling Cup games delivered the inevitable shocks we've come to expect. Most notably, Norwich going down at home 0-4 to MK Dons.
Prior to last night's away win over QPR, Rochdale manager Keith Hill said you never know which Premiership clubs are taking the Carling Cup seriously. Many traders give cup games, particularly in the early rounds, a wide berth for just the same reason. Fortunately for Mr. Hill, and this trader, QPR decided to focus on other things.
Personally, I feel these games represent great opportunities. It is true, you never can tell which clubs will try and win but in most games, at this early stage, when a Premiership team is involved, one team is likely to make great endeavours and the other is likely to be lethargic in their approach to the game, leaving the game very one sided. The QPR v Rochdale game was the only game I was happy to trade, for the simple reason that Mr. Hill made it clear he wanted a Premiership scalp and because it was very likely, and eventually true, that Neil Warnock would want to rid himself of the burden of additional games that might injure or wear out his squad.
All my efforts were focused on this game, so nothing done in-play elsewhere. Slightly short of target on the night but a decent green.

Tonight, I'll be focusing on the Benfica v Twente game. Benfica can get away with a 0-0 but, at 2-2, Twente will push for the away goal and leave themselves open. Got some free green on 0-0, so laying the draw here and looking to lay .5 markets in-play.
Interested in the Everton v Sheffield Utd game too but until teams are announced, I'll keep a watching brief.
I'm currently testing a "The Dog Scored First" get out and fancy Sheffield Wednesday to put Blackburn on the back foot. Again though, these are cup games and you know cup games, they're not for everyone

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 23 August 2011

The continuing over reaction to Manchester City

On another blog, I wrote a piece regarding the over reaction to Aguero and Manchester City's win over Swansea, their first game of the season. It was a good display from both sides and Swansea certainly did not look like chumps, at least for the first 45 minutes...
Anyway, a mate of mine who was watching the Bolton v Man City game really made me laugh by texting and saying "Really fancy City this season. Think they've got the squad to do well, particularly in the Champions League". To which my reaction was "Really? And you're basing that on two games, one against a promoted side and the other against a diminished side, who may well be fighting for their place, later in the season."
Man City are good. They should be. All that money etc but are they really good enough yet? Last night Man Utd proved again why they are so fancied to retain the title, a second half change of gear saw an emphatic win over a Spurs who, after 60 minutes, began to show they needed the game for match fitness.

I wrote another piece about who I fancy to be good trading this season. With some of the 55's about Spurs already taken, the 95's currently available is a gift and their later run of fixtures will see that price crash. An Arsenal lay came good even quicker than expected - in at 10's with all liability removed at 26's. The back of Man Utd has been surprisingly up and down but I shall stick with it and the original plan of backing them again at Xmas.

Tonight is Carling Crap night with some spurious Champions League qualifiers thrown in. Only one game worth the bread and butter and that's QPR v Rochdale. The rest will be in-play, if at all.

Whatever you trade, stay green.