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Thursday, 25 August 2011

Why bother turning up?

 Whilst my three trades went well, it was disappointing to watch a lacklustre performance from Twente. Normally prolific in their own league and on home turf, they looked determined more to stop Benfica scoring than getting the single goal they needed. Benfica fired 7+ shots on target before the break, Twente didn't manage any. I'd laid the draw in this game and was confident it would come good. They took a little longer than hoped but eventually the goals came and in quick succession, making 100% profit, rather than trading out.

After looking at the team sheet just before KO, Everton's line up seemed decent and strong, so I laid this draw too. I was hoping to try a new "Dog Scored First" get out strategy on the Blackburn game but they were 3-0 up inside 6 minutes, so another 100% there. As Sheffield United went 0-1 up at Goodison, I went to implement the new strategy there, instead Everton found a quick equaliser. Though Everton's avg win margin was just 1.12, conversely, their percentage chance of finding a two goal lead was 62%, so I stuck it out. Waiting for the market to settle after 2-1, they scored again and I left that to run for another 100% profit. Three out of three ain't bad, especially when expecting one to go wrong.

On to today's fodder...
The stats don't read well but Stoke should try and kill the tie at home to Thun. They play W. Brom away on Sunday and Pulis will want his boys safe and sound for that. Not 100% on it yet but it looks a likely candidate.
Often, I'll look for games that the market is completely unsure of, where an argument can be made for any result. These games are easy to identify using the 0-0 (around 12's), Over 2.5 (around 2's) and the draw (3.5 - 3.75). Some in-depth research is required but finding an angle on these games will often hold a great deal of value. Just because the market can't find something, doesn't mean we traders can't. Tonight's candidates;

Young Boys v Braga.
YB have kept just one clean sheet at home from their last eighteen competitive games. Going for Over 2.5 with some cover in Correct Score. Small stakes. 
Helsingborg v Standard
Helsingborg rarely lose at home but Standard are 1-0 up and may park the bus. Leaving this one alone. 

Whatever you trade, stay green.

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