BBC Sport | Football | World Edition

Friday, 30 September 2011

Udin't lay Celtic?



After the lay of Arsenal on Wednesday, at the still amazing 1.09, last night's game at Celtic Park presented yet another golden opportunity. Converting a penalty on 3 minutes Celtic's price plummeted, not to the same depths as Arsenal but low enough to confidently put in a lay and cover scores such as 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1. Udinese have had a very god start the season, particularly away so, I just couldn't see them coming away without a point, that was, until the 80th minute. I'd covered so wasn't concerned about a loss but despite all their pressure, it looked like they may not make it tell. Then the ref gave Udinese a fairly dodgy looking pen and I didn't look back. To have Celtic as low as 1.5 after going just one goal up, and after three minutes, is crazy. Based on UEFA Coefficient Table, Serie A is the fourth best league in Europe, and therefore the world, the SPL is seventeenth. Celtic are above the average SPL side so you might place them sightly higher but, all in all, Udinese play in a much tougher league, against much better opponents on a regular basis. As such, there is always a good chance they will come back against lower class sides, like last night. There is a link to the Wikipedia UEFA Coefficient table on Essential Sites and Tools, to the right of his post.

Yesterday's nag trading was a success! I made a few mistakes on Wednesday and decided that yesterday's goal would be to get that money back, I was £1 short. From 26 races I had 5 losers but the mistakes were caught early and big losses were avoided, feeling pretty confident. Not much time today but will do what I can.

Footy card is a bit thin on the ground again but there is one pick for me - Heracles v De Graafschap. Possibility the goal will come late, so I'll be dripping in the lay.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 29 September 2011

Chelsea's Frank Lampard (L) celebrates his goal in front of Valencia's David Albelda during their Champions League Group E match at the Mestalla stadium in Valencia September 28, 2011. REUTERS/Sergio Perez
Right on, Frank.

Reminiscent of Tommie Smith in the1968 Olympics but with a great deal less meaning, Frank Lampard salutes a tough fought point at the Mestalla. Chelsea should have won but I backed 1-1, so all was far from lost. 
It never ceases to amaze me how some traders/gamblers will back something for big money, at really short prices and they seem to do so without thought of recent form. Arsenal traded at a ridiculous 1.09 after scoring the second on 20 minutes. This would have been a good opportunity had it been 20 minutes left but with almost 80% of the game left to play, it was a gift. Olympiakos scored seven minutes later and I retired for the day not long after.
The Europa League often throws up a decent game or two, unfortunately, today is not one of those days. Nothing on the draw lays today, which should give me plenty of time to focus on the new horse racing service. 
I've downloaded the Ebook/Manual which has the usual Money Management & Psychology stuff, never to be underestimated and always to be read, regardless of how often we see it. After which come the three strategies. The first is nothing new, however, the entry point is very clear and makes sense but I strongly suspect this strategy works much better on particular types of race, certainly not all. I followed the entry in some races and there was evidence of how it would be successful.
The opportunity to implement the second strategy comes, by the author's admission, very rarely. It did not appear yesterday so I cannot comment but it's not something I've seen before and based on the logic, it should be effective.
The last strategy appears to be what the service is built around. Strategies one and two may well work but all the training videos, which are very good, clear and concise, show this third strategy in use. Again, the basis is not something new but the practice is. It makes perfect sense. I traded some races for small stakes and, where I did not make my own mistakes, I took a green. What I like most is the trading style -  putting on headphones, no TV, just zoning into the numbers. It does take some skill and will take time to perfect. But the basis is very clear and only the skill needs to be perfected, rather than some Jedi insight into why the market is going this way or that. Both my BF accounts have P&L for other trading on so it's difficult to show P&L for this but I'll report it as best I can.

Whatever you trade, stay green. 







Wednesday, 28 September 2011

There's no "I" in "team" but there is a "me" if you look hard enough.

Manchester City manager Roberto Mancini

Fair to say that the footballing world, certainly over here anyway, is still reeling from the utter nonsense that took place in Germany last night. Yesterday I suggested Mr. Tevez might want to give people reason to want to take him away from City in January, but he refused to even take the field of play. Many football fans, including myself, have had a great deal of respect for Tevez. Based predominantly on his passion for the game and his desire to play, as well as his underlying ball skills. Now though, that respect is all but gone and, in my eyes at least, he has become another petulant infant who has too much money and too high an opinion of himself to respect the people around him, the people who pay him and the people who pay to see him. Mancini has already stated, if it were his decision, Tevez would never play for City again. 
Go back to your family, Carlos. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

Yesterday's late qualifier hit the mark nicely for us. Lyon 2-0 up at HT was enough for me and I greened up for just over 80%. I managed to scalp some free green on the Bayern v City 2-1, which I took out at HT. Initially my idea as to lay Bayern and back them in the Correct Score Market to cover, but Mancini's decision to play three up front left me undecided so it was a swerve for me. 
There really is nothing for me today. Looking forward to watching Chelsea but I can't see any draw lays worth investing in.

Over the course of my sports trading career, I've made many endeavours into conquering the dark art that is trading horse racing. Many hundreds have been spent on courses and one to one personal training, all with no success. This may be down to a lack of pupil understanding but I'm a relatively intelligent chap and, though it may take some getting, I'm sure I can get it. So, after emailing the guy who runs it and asking some fairly frank questions, I am about to sign up to another horse trading service. After explaining what training I had had and from whom I had had it, the owner of this service suggested he could furnish me with the missing ingredient, the fundamental element(s) that, perhaps, the previous trainers had been reluctant to divulge. All will be revealed here, daily.

Whatever you trade, stay green. 

Tuesday, 27 September 2011

Are City value in Munich?



Manchester City are finally becoming the force that the owners have been paying for. The addition of Aguero, the inspired form of Dzeko and David Silva, plus the possibility of Mario Balotelli becoming a human, has had the whole Tevez debacle quietly on the sidelines. Tonight though, with Balotelli suspended, Tevez may well find himself between rock and hard place. He's a great player and I'll be sorry to see him leave the Prem but, if you want to leave in January, Carlos, get on the field and give people a reason to bid for you!
I am a huge fan of the Bundesliga. It's not dominated by two or three sides each season, it's great for goals and the fans always create a great atmosphere. Bayern have had a great start to their season but, as the manager admits, this will be their toughest test yet. Strong across the park, Bayern will only be missing Robben and he may well make an appearance at some point. City though will only be missing Balotelli, (I use the word "missing" lightly) and are sure to go with one thing in mind - Do not lose.
Bayern's price has come in this morning from 2's down to 1.8, at time of writing. For me, this price represents a good lay opportunity with cover in the Correct Score market. Alternatively, with Bayern shortening, the Draw and City prices also offer value. It should be a very good game to watch.

Very good trade last night. Took a while for the right amount of money to hit the market but it was okay when KO rolled around. 2-0 after 30 minutes was enough for me to leave it to run, final score 4-0.
No draw lays today, despite some decent games, there is nothing I would be happy to invest in. - LATE QUALIFIER Lyon v Dinamo Zagreb

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 26 September 2011

Liquidity in the balance




As Betfair out-grows itself and continues to basically piss off just about everyone who wants to use it as it was originally intended (as per You Bet - The Betfair Story), the ascendancy of Betdaq's star is finding some momentum. Encouragingly, I have read many stories lately, the vast majority since Betfair introduced the Premium Charge, about how liquidity on Betdaq, Betfair's biggest rival, is greatly increased and increasing further. Right now, simply because that's where so much money is traded, the horse racing markets on Betdaq are seeing the benefit of traders crossing over from Betfair. There is still a long way to go before the football markets catch up but there is more liquidity in these markets now than has been before. Whilst we may not be able to transfer all our trading yet, nor should we want to in the long term, the fact there is so much more money entering these markets means, when Betfair' software falls over, as it did, yet again, last Saturday, we can trade out safely on Betdaq. 
For those who do not know, Betfair has a standard 5% commission on all transactions. That being, the profiting side of a transaction would have 5% of the profit deducted by Betfair. Fair enough. But, not that long ago, some really big hitters were then asked to pay 20%. Now, Betfair has decided that too many people were making too much money, so they recently introduced a Premium Charge - For those users who have achieved an overall profit on their account of £250k or more, regardless of the time frame, they would now be charged between 40% & 60% for each of their profiting transactions, more than you would pay to Her Majesty's Government. 
This is likely a pyrrhic victory for Betfair, with a battle won against those that scare off the small punters that Betfair fervently look to attract, while forcing the real profit generators to seek alternatives and therefore strengthen the competition. My allegiance lies with liquidity and minimum commission, wherever that might be.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Betfair-Premium-Charge-Fiasco/232172673473703

And, speaking of liquidity - The two picks from Saturday were both 100% trades, Sheffield Wednesday went 2-0 up in the first half and got a third early in the second half to ensure the win. Charlton also went 2-0 up in the first half but, as Betfair was on the blink again, there was no money around to trade out when Chesterfield made the game 2-1, thankfully Charlton got another at the death to seal it. Those I considered taking in-play were left alone. Nothing for yesterday, which was a welcome day off.

Today's pick is Atvidaberg v Falkenberg in the Swedish Superettan. Needs to be more money pre 6pm though.

Whatever you trade, stay green. 

Saturday, 24 September 2011

Fantasy football..?


...unbelievable more like.

After watching a 0-0 in Norway, I caught a pig plane and flew to a rocking horse sh*t farm before going home to brush my hen's teeth.
I'm always ready and prepared for the dreaded 0-0 but, when it comes in a game like last night's, where neither side have had a 0-0 all season long, it's rather annoying. However, that wasn't the only shock of the night. Stuttgart, heavy favourites, were beaten 1-2 by a Hamburg side who had scored just one away goal, had lost five and drawn one of six games. Fortunately, Stuttgart did get the first and I traded out at half time for a decent green that, sadly, only recouped some of the loss from the Molde 0-0.
The thing to remember, as yesterday's post suggested, we only need to be right most of the time...

Seemed like every man and his dog were trading these two games and, for a while, I thought my blog following must be larger than it is, until I realised Ian Erskine had suggested the same two games. There is some solace in that.

Some great games today but not that many that qualify. I'll be watching both Manchester games as well as the Liverpool game and taking them on in-play. Really interested to see how Arsenal get on today but I'll keep my bank well clear of that. Today's picks - Charlton v Chesterfield & Sheffield Wednesday v Exeter.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Friday, 23 September 2011

What strike rate is necessary to be in profit?

A good question...

Ask a pro gambler and he's likely to suggest he only needs to be right 51% of the time, which is mathematically true but, as traders, what is mathematically true for us? Below is a blog post from Peter Webb (aka PeeWee) of Bet Angel fame and general sports trading legend and myth. If you do not know who Peter is, Google him.

So, back to last week and the question “If a team is priced at 2.00 how often will they go on to score first?”. I was surprised by the diversity of answers, but the actual answer is 60% (Give or take rounding, equipartition, sample size etc). I first worked out the rough percentages back in the mid 80′s for some work I was doing then. Over the course of a season, if I take a stab at the first scorer, I’m accurate to within 0.07% of the actual. But there is a lot of variability in there, which is the reason behind my “What does value look like post”. Just because you pick something, doesn’t mean it will happen. Only that it will happen X% of the time based on your stats. 
The interesting thing about this stat is that it is saying that if you trade the favourite rather than just back it, you get a 10% better chance of profiting. Whatever strategy you choose, whatever filters you apply it needs to yield over a 60% strike rate to have any possibility to make money in the long term. If you starting hedging they your increase liability needs an even higher strike rate. I’ll discuss that more in future weeks.


 The key point, for us at least, is -  "if you trade the favourite rather than just back it, you get a 10% better chance of profiting". Fundamentally, when laying the draw, we are trading the favourite. We are backing that favourite to score the first goal. If you are just beginning your journey into football trading or are looking to learn more about laying the draw and adding the strategy to your list, the above is a perfect place to start. Use 2.00 as your first filter, leave out anything above that, this way you can be sure, based on the 60% hit rate, that you are in front before you begin.


I Stayed away from the football markets yesterday. The research into the Roma game gave no fast pointers and I simply forgot to do the U6.5 in Rosenborg. Roma did go 1-0 up so a profit could've been made but Rosenborg scraped a 2-1 against Sarpsborg... Yesterday's "Value" lay put the first blemish on the spreadsheet, Espanyol did win but they didn't score until the 91st minute.

Today's picks - Molde v Viking and Stuttgart v Hamburg. Can't spot anything to suggest as a value lay.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 22 September 2011

Three out of tree ain't bad.



Cracking night, last night. Southampton went ahead on 27 minutes. I was a bit concerned about 1-1 so got out for a decent profit after the market settled. A great start. I laid Everton and backed 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1. As W. Brom took the lead with a late penalty, there was no need to fear a goal fest from Everton, the trade was left to run. Nice profit on the lay. The "Value" draw lay came in with Syrianska winning 3-1.

A thin card today but some half decent games, to watch at least. Interested in the Roma v Sienna game but not fully decided upon it yet. Today's "Value" draw lay is the Primera game between Espanyol and Getafe. Rosenborg take on league strugglers Sogndal in a cup game, after bagging 4 against Start they owe me nothing so another little tickle on the U6.5 goals is likely.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 21 September 2011

Glory, glory Man Utd.

Match action from Leeds United v Manchester United.

Utd are an unstoppable force this season. Even with very much the 2nd eleven, they are formidable.
Some how, around lunchtime yesterday, the draw price was pushed in from 4.8 to 4.4! Why anyone would think this game would end a draw is beyond me entirely, but I took great advantage of the price, then sat back to watch the money buyers and fans come in from work and back Utd in, pushing the draw back out. It was 5.3 at KO.
The writing was on the wall from the out set and it took the massively under utilised Michael Owen just 15 minutes to remind us of his talent, then his even better reminder put Utd 0-2 up on 32 minutes. Another piece of sheer class from Giggs, who seems to get better and better with age, put them 0-3 up and unreachable. Whilst Utd were magnificent up front, it has to be said, they were awful at the back and a better opponent would've made that tell.
Managed to scalp some free green on the 1-3 pre game which was greened on 70 minutes. A lovely trade all round.
The "Value" draw lay came in too, with Real Sociedad bagging the winner on 63 minutes.

Tonight we see more from the Carling Cup. Sadly, nothing so obvious as last night. Can't touch Liverpool. West Brom might actually be value at Everton, they almost scraped draws against both Utd and Chelsea, should've beaten Norwich by more but the Swansea defeat is the question mark, will have a dabble in-play.
Southampton v Preston is today's pick but I'll be looking to get cover on 1-1. The "Value" draw lay for today is Syrianska v Orebro.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 20 September 2011

AIK 0-1 Djurgarden. Trading what's in front of you.



Thanks to Betfair's streaming, I was able to watch the AIK v Djurgarden game. Pre match, the draw steamed from 4.4 into 3.45 and then settled around 3.6, in the space of about an hour. No team news anywhere to speak of but, on watching the first 15 minutes of the game, it was obvious the market had known something. Djurgarden completely dominated and got their reward on 20 minutes. Had I not been watching the game, my stats and ratings would've forced me to trade out for a small loss but AIK never looked like scoring. Any neutral who didn't know their Swedish teams could have very easily assumed Djurgarden were at home, such was their control of the game. As is it's way in such situations the draw price didn't move until around 75 minutes, but when it did it made big leaps and I traded out for a decent green on 80 minutes. Of course, the game finished 0-1.
Albeit a small one, the Rosenborg lay of U6.5 goals delivered a profit with a flurry of goals in the second half. Traded out at 1.3.

Cup fodder tonight, not my favourite, as regular readers will know. Man Utd will, no doubt, take some schoolboys along with Berba and Owen to give Leeds a lesson. Very likely Fergie will want revenge for the Home 0-1 FA Cup defeat in 2010.
In my quest to find more value and better trades, I shall be looking at laying draws which are not so obvious on face value. Last night's Ipswich v Coventry game was a good example. Tonight's pick is Real Sociedad v Granada. Sociedad came back from 0-2 down against the mighty Barca to snatch a draw and, rightly, will take a great deal of confidence from that. Granada are newly promoted to La Liga after scratching into the play-offs and scratching through those. They suffered a 4-0 beating at the hands of Malaga in their first game. I'm only paper trading these right now.  

I've had some emails and requests for better explanations on Laying the Draw and trading generally. My intention is to add a great deal more info to the blog over time, so please bear with me.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 19 September 2011

Trading the fixture list.

Chelsea's Ashley Cole tackles Manchester United's Javier Hernandez
Could someone explain why Cole got carded but there was no penalty?

Man Utd are, have been and will continue to be rampant this season. I laid the Man Utd v Arsenal draw because it was blatantly obvious that Utd would win. For some strange reason, I neglected to do the same yesterday, despite having the same instinct.
Once an ardent Chelsea fan, now I simply prefer to see the game played well. No one could argue yesterday's game was a good example of that.
Though I didn't take a profit from the game itself, my season back of Utd moved further into the green.
At the beginning of this season I sent my season picks to the members of tradingfootball.eu, can't find the email now but basically, I suggested backing Man Utd, laying Arsenal and backing and laying Spurs.
Spurs' fixtures have offered some great opportunities and, IMO, are worth backing now to trade out just before they meet Chelsea in December.
Laid at 10's, we all know what's happened to Arsenal...
Finally, Man Utd. Ordinarily, like last year, my trade would be closed until Xmas when Utd have a positive surge in form. However, other than Liverpool and Man City, their fixture list is not one to be concerned about, so I'm letting it run.
Whilst I have never been called modest, I'm not showing these graphs to blow my own trumpet. These are just some of the other ways of using the markets in conjunction with the forthcoming fixtures. It's something I do at the beginning of each season and continue to do throughout and is always very profitable.

Two very nice trades yesterday with Helsingborg going 3-0 up in the first half, bagging 100% and Tromso finding the net in the run up to Half Time. Stoke were woeful at Sunderland and their 4-0 drubbing proves why I am a trader not a tipster...
Finally reached a big financial milestone in trading yesterday, so feeling particularly positive right now.
AIK is the pick today, the draw price has steamed in over the last hour or two, can't find any news as to why but I'll keep my eye on it. Taking a speculative punt and laying U6.5 goals in the Rosenborg v Start game. They avg 5 per game between them and it's as cheap as chips.

Whatever you trade, stay green. 

Sunday, 18 September 2011

Suspension suspense - The necessary evil that is Betfair



We've all had bad experiences with businesses that provide desperately poor service and, for the most part, it comes from businesses that become too big even for themselves. Betfair is the latest addition to this list.
The business is built on the idea of being able to electronically transact with another user, from which they make ridiculously large sums of money and yet, despite all that is essential to making such a model work and having more money than God, they still fail to have their systems working correctly on a Saturday afternoon. Not only this, they have nothing that resembles a competent Plan B.
Something like 75% of games on yesterday's In-Play coupon were "suspended" throughout the second half of the 2pm, 2.30pm and 3pm kick offs, meaning traders were unable to close positions and had massive exposure. Any changes in a game and there was no way of reducing losses or taking profits. I personally had a massive exposure on the Kalmar game. Thankfully, they held on for 1-0 win but I was certainly one of the fortunate ones.
The In-Play coupon on Betfair is said to be "managed", in essence, this means a Betfair employee will press a button to suspend all In-Play markets when a goal is scored, a red card is shown or a penalty is given. However, Betfair also offer an Unmanaged In-Play Coupon, which is the same as the above without the Betfair monkey pressing the button, plus the games are different to those on the managed In-Play Coupon. So, why on Earth would they suspend all markets when there is an issue, leaving traders with big liabilities hanging, rather than just transferring them to Unmanaged In-Play markets?
As is always the case, these issues will escalate until one bright spark in the board room suggests what their customers have actually been asking for. I hope by that time Betdaq or A N Other has come up with a viable alternative to the necessary evil that is Betfair.

Despite the technical hiccups, as said earlier, the Kalmar game finished nicely in profit.
Today's picks are Helsingborg v Mjallby and Tromso v Stromgodset. I'm interested in the Malmo game but the draw seems very high based on recent form, I may take it on In-Play, if Betfair is working!
NB - Stoke are unbeaten this season, in all comps. I fancy them for at least a point at Sunderland.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 17 September 2011

essaguin essaguin essaguin...

Too much of the black stuff and nowhere near enough sleep, leaves me somewhat lethargic today.

Two nice trades yesterday. Came out of the Turku trade at 2-1, which is how it stayed and came out of the GAIS trade at 1-0. At 1-1 in the second half, I backed 1-1 and 1-2 to ensure no loss on the dutched scores.
Plus, I finished 2nd in our little poker tournament, so a good day all round.

Today's pick, so far, Kalmar v Halmstad. This sails through every filter except the 0-0 so, as I'm in no shape to scalp, I'm taking a very rare safety bet on that scoreline.

Whatever you trade, stay green - whatever you drink, don't have as much as I did.

Friday, 16 September 2011

I just can't stay away - Athletico Madrid v Celtic


Celtic fail to come from behind.

Whilst I took most of yesterday off, watched a couple of films, bit of fitness etc, the screens are always on and my interest was raised by the fluctuating price of the A. Madrid v Celtic draw. Our Scottish friends couldn't win an argument abroad and, at 4.4, the price was just too low - it had to be laid. Managed to score some free green on the 3-0 too, so when Madrid took the early lead both the draw and the 3-0 moved healthily into green. Apart from two brief spells, Celtic never looked like getting into the tie and only when the game approached 70 minutes did I think about trading out on the draw, then Madrid scored again. Almost all the draw green was available and the 3-0 steamed. Took the 3-0 green there and then and left the draw to run. Great trade, great green and a great way to rebuild confidence after Wednesday's battering.

On to today's offering - TPS Turku v Jaro gets through the filters, as does GAIS v Norrkoping. I'll be dutching 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 in this game too.

After these games, I'm off to the Big Smoke to get drunk, play cards and be silly with my mates.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 15 September 2011

Tales of the unexpected - Night of the Underdog.


The goal is over there!

You tell 'em Gasper! Talk about a lacklustre performance, Inter were more Championship than Champions League and Trabzonspor totally deserved their win. Why Gasperini didn't start with Milito or at least bring him on earlier is beyond me. The first time I've had to trade at 0-0 for ages. They do happen and, it goes without saying, it's in games you don't expect.
The same can be said for Valarenga. No team news suggested it but, looking at the stats on 30 minutes, I got the distinct impression Valarenga's frontline were on holiday. I waited until 40 minutes, the stats didn't improve, so I traded out. The game finished 0-1 to Odd Grenland. Two games traded, two losses. The CS dutch blew out as well.
Man U had to come back after a brilliantly crafted Benfica goal, City had to scrape a draw against a very impressive Napoli, Real Madrid struggled to a 0-1 win, A draw for Lille and Ajax. Only Bayern and Basel proved their worth.

Today's card is a minefield and after a bit of a mauling yesterday, I'm taking today off.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 14 September 2011

Champions League - Tuesday 13th, Sept.


Oh, why hasn't Roman called me?

Poor old Pep. Great game for the neutral but sadly lacking in the quality we have come to expect. My focus was on the Chelsea, Porto and Arsenal games, so I may have missed any real flashes that did appear.
Chelsea laid siege to the Leverkusen goal for much of the match but took until the 68th minute to hit the net. Timing could not have been better, as the exit point was more than fast approaching.
Porto's keeper, Helton, made a calamitous error, spilling the ball for Adriano to poke home and put S. Donetsk 0-1 up. Hulk hit the woodwork with an early penalty but blasted a 30+yard free kick to put Porto level. Rakitskiy, also responsible for giving away the penalty, saw a straight red just before HT and when Porto took the lead on 51 minutes, they never looked in any danger. Nice green on both draw lays.
Annoyingly, the dutching of correct scores was not so profitable. Genk v Valencia finished 0-0, though  I suspect Genk had a great deal of luck as Valencia's stats were through the roof.
Dortmund got a late equaliser for 1-1 which, in truth, should've been on my dutched list but I over estimated the German side.

My screens will be on the Manchester sides tonight but today's picks are Valarenga v Odd Grenland and Inter Milan v Trabzonspor. Dutching the CS in Valarenga game too - Once I'm more confident with these, I might post them.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 13 September 2011

Out come the big guns.

Lionel Messi

Tonight sees the return of the Champions League proper, and what a set of fixtures it brings. I fear the optimism of the Milanese is rather ill placed but the game does have some promise. I ask only that we see just a few flashes of collective, footballing genius. 
Chelsea v B. Leverkusen should also be a great spectacle. Bayer have had mixed form over this season and last, as have Chelsea, but Villa Boas has been brought in, much like the previous umpteen managers, to win the Champions League. This is a must win game for them.
Arsenal's desperate form is unlikely to pick up in an away tie and Dortmund will be on the front foot after suffering a shock Home defeat to Bundesliga new boys Hertha Berlin. 
Thankfully, I have three screens, so I can watch all three.

Tonight's picks are Chelsea and Porto. Along with these I'll be dutching some scores in the Dortmund v Arsenal and Genk v Valencia games.

Last night's was another good trade with Inter taking a 2-0 lead in the first half. Somehow, Honka managed to claw it back to 2-2, with a red card, but this trader was long gone by then. 

Whatever you trade, stay green. 






Monday, 12 September 2011

Late on parade













Lovely trade last night on the Molde v Brann game. Wasn't sure we'd get the opportunity, apparently the fella that rides the bike with the dynamo on it fancied a day off, so there were no floodlights. Fortunately, he was found in the nearby drinker and told to urr, get on his bike! Game kicked off about an hour late in the end but it didn't take long for Molde to find the net, two nice goals for a very nice green. 
I too am late on parade today. Couldn't quite make my mind up on the Inter Turku v Honka game. The draw price crashed this morning but there was no info as to why. It went down to 3.65, all my stats said yes and there was nothing, other than the steaming price, to say no. Took it on at 3.7, Inter have just scored...
Sorry I didn't post it before but I've been busy today.

Whatever you trade, stay green. 

Sunday, 11 September 2011

Leaving it late, dodging bullets and hitting the target


Kyle Lafferty wipes his nose on his teams badge..? Had he not scored, I may have been wiping my **** on a Rangers shirt!
The quality of Scottish football is poor, we know that, but what does it say when a team has a poor run of form, just managing to scrape results but is still top of the SPL. Dundee Utd can consider themselves desperately unlucky not to have had something from the game. Despite Utd going down to 10 men around 30 minutes in, Rangers still took a further 30 minutes to make the difference count, perfect timing for me. Ally McCoist needs to greatly improve Rangers if they are too hold on to the top spot and if he is to keep his job.

Cardiff also left it late to find the necessary goal against a Doncaster side who are utterly woeful this season. Again though, the timing was perfect, coming just before trade out and ensuring a very nice green.
There was an addition yesterday, Charlton v Exeter was added late on. The game took a very similar course to the Scottish game, with a red card for Exeter in the first half but Charlton were able to make it pay just before the break.
The dodged bullet yesterday came from the Swedish game between Mjallby and Norrkoping. Looking at the Match Odds market just before KO, there was only £25k matched, my absolute minimum is £50k so, the game was left. And thank God too, as it finished 0-0.
Gambling is something I do very rarely indeed but, on the advice of a very knowledgeable football gambler, I dutched the 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 in the Stoke game. It was one of those rare games where you just know that your money is already won. Even with Walters scoring early, on 21 minutes, there was never any fear. However, the hedging, trader instinct in me still had to back 2-0 on 70 minutes, just in case.
All in all it was a very good days trading, though the teams involved could've been a little more sympathetic to my cause.
Lots of decent football today but there's only one candidate for me, Molde v Brann. So far there is only £19k matched, so it needs to pick up before 7pm.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 10 September 2011

Greuther Furth 2 - 1 MSV Duisburg.


G Furth v Duisburg
German football is great to watch. The fans are exactly that - fanatical - and create a fantastic atmosphere, regardless of how mediocre or inconsequential the game might be. 
The first half of last night's game was quite mediocre. GF were slow from the blocks and Duisburg certainly won the first half on points but GF came out with some gusto in the second half and nicked one on 59 minutes, then another was scrambled over the line on 64 minutes. The draw price was a massive 42 when the game suspended again, Duisburg had managed to get one back just 2 minutes after the real money goal. The game finished 2-1 but the green was taken after the market settled soon after the Duisburg goal, which was pretty special, it has to be said. 

Plenty to go at today, up to now I'm taking on three. May add to it later but these are already through the filters.
Dundee v Rangers
Cardiff v Doncaster
Mjallby v Norrkoping.

Whatever you trade, stay green. 



Friday, 9 September 2011

TPS 2 - 1 Helsinki. Should I stay or should I go?

Bloody red cards. Far too frequent these days. Serie A and La Liga seem to be the worst culprits but the amount of contact allowed these days, or lack of it, is very quickly turning the best of contact sports into anything but.
Helsinki found the necessary goal only to concede a penalty and forfeit a man just 5 minutes later. At 1-1, I bit the bullet and traded out. Without the red card my usual MO would be to stay in but my fear is the now 10 man favourite will play for the point. TPS went to 2-1 on 61 minutes and that's how it stayed, sad but true.
Some aggressive traders will suggest I should have stayed in, some might suggest leaving the red on the Draw and a scratch on a win. Perfectly reasonable plays and plays I may have made on a different game but, against the stats, I made the right play for me.
Sundsvall v Varnamo went way above my laying limit pre KO, so that was left alone. Unlikely it would've been a loser but not much profit there either.
Fortunately, Anders Hansen played a blinding first round in the KLM. Backed @ 30's, he can now be laid at 9.8.

Just one for today - It only crept through the filters, so I'll steal some cover here and there.
Greuther Firth v MSV Duisburg

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 8 September 2011

Adopting a Darwinian approach to football trading


Way back, when yesteryear was tomorrow and yore was only yesterday, trading the draw the was, if you picked the right game, a doddle. A goal would be scored, the draw price would fly out to anything you like and trading out after one goal was all that was necessary. Whilst it is still possible, praise the Lord and the baby Jesus, to make a living from LTD, the markets grow evermore wise by the day. It used to be the draw price would drift after a goal, now it comes in until either 70 minutes or a second goal.
So, what to do now to ensure being ahead of the market in future? Well, if we use the same analyses and stats  that we do already for LTD but apply them to the Correct Score market, what can we discover? If the favourite scores, as we hope and expect, what effect will that have on the remaining score lines and how can we take advantage? The value within the Correct Score market is already under threat, just look at 2-1 as an example.  Available at 10's or more for most games just a year ago, these days you're lucky if you can get 9.6, but, if we are trading Correct Scores as an alternative way of laying the draw, are we getting more value? The answer is yet to be revealed but so far my sample number of paper trades points to the positive. We must adapt in order to survive.

Really happy to see some league games back on the card today, big fan of the Veikkausliiga, Allsvenskan and  Superettan. A good friend is the Marketing Director at Gefle IF. Sadly, whilst I love the guy to bits, his predictions are that of a dodgy Sunday tabloid astrologer.
Two for me today -
TPS v Helsinki. These two only have one draw from their last 24 games so, should TPS go ahead, there's no real cause for concern.
Sunsdvall v Varnamo - Waltzed through the filters but there needs to be a great deal more money in the market pre KO.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 7 September 2011

Scotland 1-0 Lithuania. Running to the script.

Steven Naismith and Marius Zaliukas

Lovely night of trading, last night. Had the average goal time of the Scotland game down as 44 minutes, so was expecting a late one. Which meant I could comfortably back 0-0 at KO, leave it in and trade out at 6's to cover, should the game finish goal-less. Fortunately, Scotland grabbed one not long after HT and the price went out to a fairly generous 8.8. Straight out with a nice green.
Was really surprised at the backlash after the England performance. I laid them and backed 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1, couldn't see them trouncing Wales in the way everyone seemed to expect. The inclusion of Frank "I'll pass it every way except forward" Lampard was never a great one, IMO. Still not sure why he's playing Johnson through the middle. I know he scored but his link up with Rooney is likely to be much better from the left. 
Did a similar trade on the Switzerland v Bulgaria game. Bulgaria went 0-1 up quite early so I took the green on the lay and left the scores in. Came out for a nice green on both after Switzerland went 2-1 up.

Having a little tickle on the golf this week. Hansen made for really good trading in the PGA, so a small back @ 30's in the KLM might pay dividends, we'll see.

No football today. Whatever you trade, stay green. 


Tuesday, 6 September 2011

Charlton 1 Sheffield Wednesday 1 - Still making school-boy errors



Somehow the keys to my office disappeared yesterday, leaving me without access to the mothership. Not too concerning as there wasn't much of a card last night but it did send me into a bit of a girly panic. Of course, they were found, exactly where they had been left after trading on Saturday.
Anyway, they were found with just enough time for me to sit down and go through the Charlton v Wednesday game. Despite Wednesday's awful away form, my ratings had the two closely matched. As such, laying the draw didn't look ideal, so I took on 1-1, 2-2, 3-0. My error came when scalping 0-0 to cover a low scoring affair. It wasn't the early goal that was the problem, the very best of traders get caught sometimes, my mistake was scalping with more than my original Correct Score stake. Now I needed one of my scores to hit just to make scratch. I don't like gambling, so I wracked my brain for a solution, which came in the form of AUQ (Any Unquoted). A very good trader, whom I had the pleasure of meeting last week, uses this method very successfully and thanks to our conversation about it, I was able to put it into practice.
My ratings did not suggest a walk over by either team, so the AUQ was laid at 5's. With finger poised, waiting for what might look like a goal, the lay stayed in until HT, covering much of the loss. After Wednesday got their deserved equaliser, scratch was available and taken.
Scalping for more than my stake was a foolish error. In truth though, even though my thinking was correct, I only traded because it was on the box and I fancied it, that was the real error.

More international rubbish tonight. Lots of cases for this and that but, surprisingly, Scotland is the only one to get through. With a result tonight, another against Lithuania next month, plus if Spain can do them a favour against the Czech Republic, they have a chance of making second in the group - albeit a slim one.

England look too short against Wales, as do Switzerland against Bulgaria. Will look to lay both and back them in the Correct Score Market.

Off to watch an old mate's nag run today at Leicester. They don't fancy it but I don't know what it's called yet, so I can't tell you to lay it.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Sunday, 4 September 2011

Crawley Town 4 Bristol Rovers 1

Always really grateful when a trade can be found from a sparse card. This one only just made it through the filters but Crawley made it safe with two early-ish first half goals, making it 3-0 before 60 minutes. A nice 100% trade.
Gateshead didn't make the list but they did the business, coming good around 60 minutes. Well done if you were on that one.
Had some tech issues which stopped me doing research on the Sheffield Utd game, kinda glad really, looking at the final score.

Nothing for me today. Whatever you trade, stay green.