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Thursday, 8 September 2011

Adopting a Darwinian approach to football trading


Way back, when yesteryear was tomorrow and yore was only yesterday, trading the draw the was, if you picked the right game, a doddle. A goal would be scored, the draw price would fly out to anything you like and trading out after one goal was all that was necessary. Whilst it is still possible, praise the Lord and the baby Jesus, to make a living from LTD, the markets grow evermore wise by the day. It used to be the draw price would drift after a goal, now it comes in until either 70 minutes or a second goal.
So, what to do now to ensure being ahead of the market in future? Well, if we use the same analyses and stats  that we do already for LTD but apply them to the Correct Score market, what can we discover? If the favourite scores, as we hope and expect, what effect will that have on the remaining score lines and how can we take advantage? The value within the Correct Score market is already under threat, just look at 2-1 as an example.  Available at 10's or more for most games just a year ago, these days you're lucky if you can get 9.6, but, if we are trading Correct Scores as an alternative way of laying the draw, are we getting more value? The answer is yet to be revealed but so far my sample number of paper trades points to the positive. We must adapt in order to survive.

Really happy to see some league games back on the card today, big fan of the Veikkausliiga, Allsvenskan and  Superettan. A good friend is the Marketing Director at Gefle IF. Sadly, whilst I love the guy to bits, his predictions are that of a dodgy Sunday tabloid astrologer.
Two for me today -
TPS v Helsinki. These two only have one draw from their last 24 games so, should TPS go ahead, there's no real cause for concern.
Sunsdvall v Varnamo - Waltzed through the filters but there needs to be a great deal more money in the market pre KO.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

3 comments:

  1. Don't you go talking the 2-1 price down, please :-)

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  2. Fortunately for you, gun, and your strategy, as the book must always be balanced, the low priced probability of 2-1 will be leveled out by the higher priced improbability of the other scores.

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