Tuesday, 20 September 2011
AIK 0-1 Djurgarden. Trading what's in front of you.
Thanks to Betfair's streaming, I was able to watch the AIK v Djurgarden game. Pre match, the draw steamed from 4.4 into 3.45 and then settled around 3.6, in the space of about an hour. No team news anywhere to speak of but, on watching the first 15 minutes of the game, it was obvious the market had known something. Djurgarden completely dominated and got their reward on 20 minutes. Had I not been watching the game, my stats and ratings would've forced me to trade out for a small loss but AIK never looked like scoring. Any neutral who didn't know their Swedish teams could have very easily assumed Djurgarden were at home, such was their control of the game. As is it's way in such situations the draw price didn't move until around 75 minutes, but when it did it made big leaps and I traded out for a decent green on 80 minutes. Of course, the game finished 0-1.
Albeit a small one, the Rosenborg lay of U6.5 goals delivered a profit with a flurry of goals in the second half. Traded out at 1.3.
Cup fodder tonight, not my favourite, as regular readers will know. Man Utd will, no doubt, take some schoolboys along with Berba and Owen to give Leeds a lesson. Very likely Fergie will want revenge for the Home 0-1 FA Cup defeat in 2010.
In my quest to find more value and better trades, I shall be looking at laying draws which are not so obvious on face value. Last night's Ipswich v Coventry game was a good example. Tonight's pick is Real Sociedad v Granada. Sociedad came back from 0-2 down against the mighty Barca to snatch a draw and, rightly, will take a great deal of confidence from that. Granada are newly promoted to La Liga after scratching into the play-offs and scratching through those. They suffered a 4-0 beating at the hands of Malaga in their first game. I'm only paper trading these right now.
I've had some emails and requests for better explanations on Laying the Draw and trading generally. My intention is to add a great deal more info to the blog over time, so please bear with me.
Whatever you trade, stay green.