Saturday, 3 September 2011
Bulgaria 0 England 3 - When the market gets it wrong.
As previous posts have suggested, I do have a slight fancy for England to do well in next year's Euro 2012. Mainly because of the new, young blood coming into the team. Had last night's team sheet read any thing like those from the World Cup or the dishwater games against Moldova and Switzerland, my powder would've been kept very dry. However, with the inclusion of Smalling, Young, Jones, Cahill and the not so young Parker, plus the exclusion of Lampard and Gerrard, gave me a great deal of confidence in an England winning performance.
The draw price in the morning was around 4.3, which was neither here nor there until the team was announced. Once that had happened, I fully expected the price do drift, to my utter surprise and delight, it steamed.
In fear of it taking a dramatic turn, I jumped on at 3.8 thinking it was a steal, it went all the way to 3.5! Frankly though, my 3.8 really was a gift. England took the early lead, as they seem to have a new habit of doing. Price went out to 6.6 but settled around 5.4. England looked hungry, so the lay stayed in. Then 0-2 from Rooney sealed the deal. Waiting another 10-15 minutes, Bulgaria looked to be getting some momentum so I got out at 18's. Rooney then scored another, but I was more than happy with the trade and with a very nice green.
It never ceases to surprise me how the market fails to get some games so totally wrong. Bookies and traders alike have access to the same, if not more, information than we do so, how do these mis-calculations come about? Of course, as always, the answer is one opinion influencing another. Long may it reign...
Belgium took their time but came good on 51 minutes. Straight trade out there at 8.2, another nice green.
Today's card is poor, to say the least. Gateshead almost get through against Alfreton but it's a no. Crawley just scrape over the line but more money needs to be in the market pre KO.
The Sheffield Utd v Bury game looks interesting. Utd have drifted massively in the last hour. Thinking about dutching 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, but more research needed.
Whatever you trade, stay green.