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Monday, 31 October 2011

The reasons why you should.

The last two posts have focused on how tough it is to get going as a trader, how to safeguard and how to overcome the psychological barriers. All of which reads like this job is really tough and blah, blah, blah. It is hard work, of course it is, but show me a job that isn't and I'll show you a job you're bored with.
Being a full time trader means you answer to no one, (maybe the wife/significant other), you work when you want and, best of all, you get to watch sport all the live long day and, if you're any good, get paid for the privilege.
This morning my Xmas shopping began. At noon I'll pick up my son from nursery and we'll go for a nice lunch. Only after this will my working day really begin.
Trading may not be my career for the rest of my working life but right now I wouldn't be doing anything else.
If you want to be a trader, if you know you can make a living from the sporting markets and are willing to do what's necessary, then you will succeed. Never jeopardise the most important things, always have a back up plan. But, when you're ready, remember being defeated is only temporary, giving up will make it permanent.

Saturday was a perfect example of why trading can be so rewarding. The four dutched games went really well. The Wigan and Sunderland games only needed late adjustments to secure profit. The Everton v Man U game needed nothing. The Chelsea v Arsenal game was hard work. I backed AUQ at HT, when the game hit 2-3 I needed a goal from either side. Another from Arsenal gave me a scratch, a third from Chelsea would mean a cheap lay of 3-3 and I was really confident of a winner should that happen. Mata's sensational equaliser made it 3-3 and the price nose dived to 1.8. I dived in and Arsenal collared a nice profit from the lay and the AUQ back.
Didn't seem to be huge amounts of liquidity in the nag markets on Saturday but of 24 races traded, 22 were winners.
The later W. Brom v Liverpool game was easily dutched. Cover was taken on 0-3 at HT but never needed.
15.77% added to the nag bank and 6% to the football bank.

This year's X Factor is utter dishwater, the wife and I are really enjoying the US Version. To make the UK show more interesting, I've been trading the Winners Market since last week. With the exception of Craig Colton, I have a green book. Sophie was very cheap to lay on Saturday. I got Marcus Collins last week at 27's, Little Mix at 55's, Kitty at 42's, Frankie at 160. Laid the Risk at 3.75 and Janet Devlin at 3.1. Janet is still favourite but young girls are the main voters for this show, I'll green some up next week and leave lumps on Marcus and The Risk.

Draw pick for today is Valarenga v Fredrikstad. Valarenga have a chance for Europa League qualification, whilst Fredrikstad are likely to be focusing on their upcoming game with Start, with whom they are fighting to stay out of the remaining relegation slot.
Stoke V Newcastle should be a good game. The market expects a low scorer and on paper it should be. I'll be dutching the low scores but it wouldn't surprise me to have to make some smart moves in the latter part of the game.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 29 October 2011

All by myself, alone.

Yesterday's post listed how I might start my trading career, if I had my time again. Thanks to gundulf, a very knowledgeable and successful part time trader, another very valid point was raised. Gundulf is very rare in that he has no desire or design for his own trading to become anything more than the part time hobby it is. Specifically, there is one good reason for that. As a full time, professional sports trader you will spend 95% of your working day alone. That suits some people down to the ground, it doesn't suit gundulf.
Other than a few Skype chats, sat in a room with only sports commentators, statistical research and or the radio for company is how most days will pan out.
Overcoming the psychological aspects of trading is one of the biggest battles any trader will face, and spending all day alone is another massive part of the psychology involved. It should never be underestimated.

Sheff Utd v Exeter is the only draw pick for today, more money needed pre KO.

Today's dutched scores are;
Everton v Man - 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-2
Chelsea v Arsenal - 2-1, 3-1, 2-2, 2-0, 1-1
Sunderland v Villa - 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-0
Wigan v Fulham - 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1.

You can read gundulf's blog at http://soccercompounding.blogspot.com/2011/10/early-goals-profiting-from-them-and.html

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Friday, 28 October 2011

Laying the right foundation

An email arrived yesterday which, in short, asked "When do you think is the right time to turn pro?"
Firstly, I was flattered that someone would ask me such a question. Whilst my living comes from trading sports, there are many who are more successful than I. But the question forced me to re-examine my own entry into this numerical world and ask myself if I would do it that way again. The short answer is - No ****ing way!
It would bore you to read how much time and money was spent blundering my way to profitability, suffice to say though, mine is a story not that dis-similar to many. The only real difference being a number of advantageous elements to my situation that allowed me to keep going, in order to reach the level I am at today.
On realising I was not really qualified to answer the question from personal experience, much of the evening was spent thinking of how, were it done again, would I do it differently. There are many smaller aspects to his answer which, in truth, should be absolute givens, so they won't be listed here but the fundamental aspects for me would be;
1) My part time/spare time trading profits would have to amount to more than my current salary, on a pro rata basis.
2) After working out all monthly outgoings, my bank account would have enough to cover 12 months of this figure.
3) My trading bank would be considerably reduced. If my trading is as good as I think and points 1&2 are in place, confidence and ability will ensure the bank grows safely and rapidly. If I got it wrong and my trading is not as good as I thought or hoped, I can begin again.
If you're reading the above and thinking "My current income won't allow me to do that", you're already answering the question. If your trading is at a high enough standard to be considering going full time, you will be able to achieve the above through your own trading profits. The old adages are the best.

Stonking day yesterday. Added 13% to the nag bank and 9% to the football bank. The Palermo game went as expected. Confidence in the game was such that I dutched the scores in it too, along with the low scores in the Espanyol game. Clean sweep.
It's a day off for this trader.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 27 October 2011

...but the rent

Been a decent week, so far. Dutched the Arsenal v Bolton game and the 2-1 came in nicely, though Bolton scoring first meant having to take some cover. Dutched all four of last night's Carling Cup games. Had City down for the win but 1-3 was the highest I took. Were it not for their goal fest, the night would have been 100% successful. The late come back of Newcastle was particularly profitable.
Trading the Correct Score Market offers terrific value so, to go alongside The Filters page, I'll write another explaining dutching in better detail and how I personally trade the scores.
Nags have been very good this week too. After examining my losing races, the objective this week has been to dramatically reduce this number of losing races, obviously, but, with equal importance, reduce the average loss figure on those losing races, which has meant trading with even more discipline and securing better profit. Touch wood, it continues.

Card is not good today. Swedish Play-Off, tough Primera fixtures, one Norwegian fixture with no consequence but one game does catch the eye - Palermo v Lecce. Goals and a home win expected, making the current draw price of 4.2 a little on the cheap side.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 25 October 2011

Knowing when and why

Much of my in-play, football trading time is now spent with one screen dedicated to Twitter. It's fascinating seeing what trades other people are making on which ever games are live. A lot of games wouldn't even reach my first filter list but somehow, some traders find enough of an angle and enough liquidity to trade them. A lot of what goes on is basic stuff; laying the current score, laying the dog, laying 2.5/1.5 goals etc. The one that comes up most frequently is laying the draw at HT. This makes no sense to me at all.
The idea seems to be lay the draw then trade out at 1.9/1.8, nothing wrong in the maths necessarily, until you take one stat into account - The quietest periods for goals in the average game are 1-15 minutes and 45-60 minutes. Laying the draw across the first 15 minutes of the second half offers very little, if any, value. Fair enough, if the game is 2-2 you might expect more goals but at 1-1 or especially 0-0, the price of the trade is out of kilter with what is statistically likely to happen.
Now, the busiest period for goals in the average game is between 60-90+minutes. At this stage of the game, the price of the draw is a great deal smaller than at HT and it's statistically more likely that a goal will be scored. The only difference is there is no trade out point, which makes it gambling rather than trading. However, this is one of those gambles that only needs to be right 51% of the time to make it worthwhile, less if you enter the market correctly. When all others are exiting their trades at the 70minute/2.00 mark, the market is offering a much better price for a much greater chance. (40% of all goals are scored in the last half hour). That's value, in my opinion.

Standard stuff yesterday. The Brighton v West Ham game was anyone's guess. I dutched the 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 & 2-2 in-play but Brighton were really awful up front and created nothing. Came out with a small red. Nags went well.
Cup games, in-particular, Carling Cup games are usually a swerve for me, so I'll be going in-play with whatever's on the box.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 24 October 2011

Nice green on blood red Sunday

I didn't watch the Manc derby, some family time was taken instead. Needless to say, the car was nearly crashed when I learnt the result.
I was really surprised that Johnny Evans was still part of the United squad when this season began, particularly when you consider the likes of John O'Shea have gone. Evans, as you may have guessed, does not feature on my good defenders list. His faux pas was that of a petulant, lower league player but the fault for the loss, in my opinion, can be placed only at the feet of the manager. When I watched MotD and saw the players left on the bench, for one of their biggest games of the season, it was obvious Fergie only had himself to blame. During the post match interview he suggested his team had played suicide football by leaving themselves exposed on the flanks and playing as though they still had eleven men, whose instructions were they following? Even the best club manager of all time makes mistakes, though he may find it difficult to admit.

We got back with only 20 minutes of the QPR v Chelsea game missed. Chelsea were 1-0 down. A few minutes later Bosingwa was sent off and I jumped on a dutch of 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0. Then Drogba got his marching orders, job done. Talk about handing over the title on a plate. City couldn't believe their luck against a hap hazard United squad and now the only other challengers were fighting for a draw, which never came, against a newly promoted side. In truth, Chelsea were lucky not to have had more reds.

Some nice results with Saturday's dutched scores. Sunderland and Newcastle left it late, cover was taken on the 0-0's at HT. Sunderland's opener coming so late meant 0-2 could be taken for a profit instead of just a scratch. Villa v West Brom ran according to plan. Shame about the Wolves 2-1.

Nothing for today. Brighton v West Ham is anybody's guess but it'll be watchable, and I might have a dabble in-play.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 22 October 2011

Going dutch.

Surprisingly few opportunities today. Newcastle v Wigan gets through the filters, though a little more research will be carried out. The Malaga v R. Madrid game should be a knock but there's something about it I just don't like. The same can be said for too many of the others. As my concentration will be firmly on this afternoon's nags, I've decided to dutch some Correct Scores in Prem games and trade them as they go.

Newcastle v Wigan - 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 2-2 & 3-1
Villa v W. Brom - 0-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 & 2-2
Bolton v Sunderland - 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 2-0 & 2-2
Currently available at 10's, very rare these days, the 2-1 at Wolves looks value.

My sister in-law is off to Stratford jumps today and asked if I had any good tips. The usuals came out... "Don't stand up in canoe." "...eat yellow snow." "...throw stones at policemen." But I did have a quick glance at the card, told her which ones I thought might go well. It's been so long since I studied a card, I'm curious now as to how they will do. The suggestion was Each Way unless below 5's.

Morochius 2.20
Rimini 2.50
Otage de Brion 3.20
Farleigh House 4.25

Decent day yesterday. Added 18.58% with the nags and the Fortuna v Rostock game was text book. 100%.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Friday, 21 October 2011

Thank Crunchie..!

That's Robin Friday. 
Normally Friday's are short on time for me, but I've damaged a tendon in my foot and am confined to barracks.
Despite being a full time trader for getting on for three years, like anyone in a 9 to 5, I still get really excited about Friday. Those in a 9-5 might be excited about having time with friends and family, relaxing etc, my excitement comes from knowing that the Weekend was invented for sport and Friday means there is a plethora of sporting action about to unfold, and that means opportunity.
The liquidity in nag trading goes through the roof on a Saturday and, with tomorrow having the first of this season's Aintree meetings, there should be a glut.
Like most, I'll be watching the Manc derby but, unless something crops up in-play, it will be in spectator mode only.

In waiting for the Stoke v Maccabi match, for some reason I tortured myself by watching the Krakow v Fulham game. It was like being at school in a lesson you hate, when you feel like a half hour must have passed, only to find the clock is just two minutes further forward. They should get the Pools panel in for some games to save everyone the trouble.
Last night's trade went well. Stoke kept up their impressive run in the Europa League and secured 100% by HT. The game looked spiky from the off and I stole a price in the Sending Off market, Jerome duly obliged on 42 minutes. The draw price of 4.9, to me, seemed good value but the market dipped as low as 4.5 before jumping back up just before KO.

One pick for today - Fortuna D. v H. Rostock. The away side are new to B2 and are finding it tough. Fortuna are 100% at Home and remain unbeaten this campaign.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 20 October 2011

As per the script.

Decent day yesterday. Nothing spectacular with the nags. Football went really well, 100% on the Leicester draw. The previous three H2H's had been 4-2, 4-1 & 4-1, so I backed 3-1 and traded that out for 80% at HT. Jumped on the 0-0 in Marseille and chased it down to half time and greened that for 120%.
Barcelona were 1-0 up at HT and the stats said they'd had just 2 shots on target, Over 2.5 was still 1.39, which meant the Over 4.5 was low too, I laid it and the game finished 2-0. The Czech side can be justly proud of a great effort against the world's best.
Many people seemed to be giving Arsenal a hard time during last night's game. Fair enough they had a number of chances they should've taken, but so did Marseille. Many traders, including this one, give the French leagues a wide berth because they are notoriously low scoring, so it was surprising so many were critical that Arsenal didn't win sooner and by more. Deschamps is a master at grinding out results against the bigger sides, he and his team have cause to feel a little disappointed this morning.

A little thin on the ground today and the sparse card could throw up some odd results. However, Stoke have been remarkably consistent and very, very good in this European campaign. Tonight sees the return of Jones, Huth and Sorensen. Whilst Maccabi Tel Aviv are a decent side and are definitely better than the standard within the Israel Premier League, this may be too big a test for them. The draw looks cheap to me at the currently available 4.9.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 19 October 2011

Money - The reason or the tool?


A lot of my time as youngster, from about eight onward, was spent playing cards. My father taught me how to play 5 & 7 stud, draw poker, Brag, Gin, Crib (one for his knob) and many other games, Newmarket is a particular favourite. Notably, when we played them, all these games involved some financial element. My father knew the rules but not the subtleties, the time soon came when my pocket money was regularly boosted by 5p a point Gin or sniffing out his bluff in 7 stud, his favourite game.
This early grounding ensured my enthusiasm for the game continued and much of the last decade has been spent round a poker table in Fulham along with numerous trips to Vegas, taking in the World Series.
As one does, I immersed myself in the game, playing, reading about playing, reading about other people playing, watching people playing etc, etc. Throughout all I read and learnt, there was one message that continuously came through, starting all the way back from way before the game became mainstream and popular: Money is nothing more than the tradesman's tool.
All of these players acknowledged that money is necessary to live but, in plain terms, money was the tool that allowed them to live the life they wished to, which was sitting round the table playing cards.
Remembering this, led me to ask myself the question above, the reason or the tool? Am I trading because I love trading, because I just want to make money without having to work for someone else or because it affords me the working hours and spare time I want? All three is the obvious answer but ask yourself the same question and answer honestly, that answer might give you a greater insight and help focus even further on what you want your trading to achieve.

Monday was a tough day on the nags. I broke one of my own rules and rightly paid the price.
The Start v Brann game went nice and smoothly for 100%. The Halmstad v Djurgarden game ended with a scratch at 1-3.
Much better on the nags yesterday, 14.73% added. A little gizmo has now been employed to ensure Monday's mistake is not made again. Scratch on the Leeds game after pushing the green on the win. Unusually, the Blackpool trade was left to run and a very late winner captured 100%. I arbed the 1-1 and draw and backed 2-1 and 3-1 in the City v Villareal game, both of which delivered a decent profit, so a good day all round.

One pick for today - Leicester v Watford. Much as I love the Glory Hornet Boys (I was born in Watford), they couldn't win an argument right now.
Really enjoying live, in-play tweeting. Will be on-line for tonight's CL games...

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 17 October 2011

A great weekend.

It's been a fabulous weekend. The Liverpool v Man Utd game was the usual anti-climax. Still a good game but they rarely live up to the hype these days. I dutched 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 at HT, which left a very pleasing result indeed. Managed to watch most of the game before the racing began.
The racing went to a whole new level on Saturday. This can only be due to the quality of racing and the amount of money it attracts, but after trading 19 races, with only 1 small loss, a staggering 35.85% was added to the trading bank. At times it really did seem like it was possible to simply pluck money out.
The Schalke game was let down by the red card. It's very rare for me to waste time and effort trying to scrape a green in that situation. Redding up at 3.95 was more than acceptable. The Chelsea game went simply enough and the red from Schalke was recovered.

Sunday is usually a day off for me but Mrs. Lambretta took Junior out for the day and I was left to entertain myself. For the first time in ages I sat and watched the football with the interest of a football fan rather than a trader. The Birmingham v Leicester game was utter dishwater, I did trade the 1-1 and came out for scratch on 2-0 but that was purely to make it more interesting than it was. The draw price on Arsenal was too low and then the available 9.2 after the first goal was too high, this made for a very nice and very quick green.
It was my intention to relax and enjoy the day's sport rather than working but the lure of the racing markets was too much and I got involved. A very marked difference between the two days and the lack of liquidity, and a little over confidence, meant only a minuscule profit was made.
No trading or betting on the Newcastle v Spurs game. A cracking game to watch, really enjoyed seeing both sides get stuck in. Gutierrez was magnificent.

The Scandinavian leagues are coming to a close, which usually presents some opportunities. Halmstad are done for but Djurgarden will want to avoid dropping in to the relegation play-offs. Market suggests over 2.5 but I'm dutching 0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 1-1 & 1-2.
Both Start & Brann have plenty to fight for, the market suggests a win either way and the draw looks cheap. Goals expected.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 15 October 2011

And the answer is...

My previously posted dilemma asked the question; Given my new found success in trading nags and the free time it afforded me, should I trade nags, football or both?  The answer, of course, is both.
The potential to make a great deal more profit from trading both sports is too good. The major concern was having less time and a reduced quality of life, the solution then is to find a way of trading both sports and doing so within a given time frame. My brain would've worked this out eventually but, thankfully, yesterday's trading served me the answer on a plate.
Short on time as I am most Friday's, an hour was spent confirming the Valarenga v Viking game was the trade pick. Then off to get Lambretta Jr. for our traditional, weekly lunch date at Waitrose, before a swimming lesson and then his guaranteed nap in the car. I finally got to my desk in time for the 3.35. This race and the following twelve were all traded to a profit. Not one losing race in thirteen. Not only that but a massive 13.60% was added to the trading bank. So, the answer was clear. Even on a day when time is already short, the opportunities to generate very good profit and enjoy the life I have are still available.

This week two emails have asked why there is no P&L published on this blog. Two simple reasons for this 1) What I earn is between me, Mrs. Lambretta and the bank. 2) My P&L is completely irrelevant to anyone else's.
The idea that most sports traders make enormous amounts of money and continually receive calls from some fella called Riley, asking for his life back, are complete myth. Sadly, such myth is perpetuated by numerous people. I read the Bet Angel blog recently and Peter suggested he'd made £700+ before finishing his morning ablutions. I don't doubt that's true but Peter is in a minority on his own.
If you are serious about your trading, do not waste time looking at anyone else's P&L other than your own. It serves to do nothing more than put pressure on yourself because you cannot understand why everyone else is making so much in comparison to you, the truth is very few are...

Great football card today. Man Utd have not been really tested away yet and both W Brom and Stoke gave them a run. Chelsea's record at home to Everton is not great and I'll be laying them and backing Correct Scores. Today's LTD pick is Schalke v Kaiserslautern.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Friday, 14 October 2011

Decisions, decisions and a swinging P&L


Yesterday was not a good day. After writing yesterday's post, unwittingly, I had forced myself into a frame of mind that was a total disaster waiting to happen. My approach to the markets was all wrong because I wanted the results of the day to show me where the greater advantages lay and therefore make the decision for me. In doing so, my nag trading was too aggressive. There were numerous big winning trades but these were interspersed with three massive reds, the third took me into minus figures for the day, at which point I stopped, walked away and returned to my desk for the game between TPS v MyPa.
Text book stuff, really. TPS had an opportunity to push for a Europa league spot but that was scuppered by the late equaliser. Decent green.
With a couple of races left at Kempton, the software was fired up again and a decent profit was made from the 8.20 and 8.50. Short on time today but the target is to do nothing more than trade to a modest, average figure across each race, rather than push for the big green.

There is one game for today. Valarenga have a chance to leapfrog Tromso and take third spot whilst Viking have little to play for.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 13 October 2011

Racing, football or both?


What a dilemma. Not only was yesterday by far the best horse trading day yet, a whopping 11.44% was added to the trading bank. Amazing. Especially when you consider the day did not start well.
Trading football, when done properly, takes up a great deal of time with all the research and analysis. The best part of the day is taken up trawling through stats and numbers then, of course, you need to be at your desk and, ideally, watching the game to make the best of it and secure a position. There are many who take the same approach to trading horses and I'm aware most of them are enormously successful but that level of endeavour is not for me. This current nag trading set-up has no call for massive research. When punting, it was enjoyable for me to go through the form and hopefully find a winner but that was more to do with being right as opposed to making money.
Football research is laborious but my love for the game as well as the need to make a profit ensure there is some enjoyment in the work. Nag research is a great deal more involved and, without a huge passion for the sport, has the potential to become tedious. Being able to sit down not too long before the first race with, comparatively, very little preparation is a great attraction to me and the spare time this creates is more than welcome with a young family. Were I to trade both sports, to the same degree, the profit margin would certainly be greater but the quality of life would be guaranteed to suffer and, after all, it was quality of life that led me to this profession. Much pondering is needed.

Whilst my brain works through this dichotomy, it is necessary to continue with both in order to aid the decision. Consequently, we have a football pick for today - TPS v MyPa.

Whatever you trade stay green.

Wednesday, 12 October 2011

Raising the stakes

Such has been the success of my trading in the racing markets, yesterday the decision was made to increase the standard stake amount, it was doubled. In relation to the total trading bank, the overall liability is far from huge but, as still very much a novice at this, increasing the stake and liability was a big step. I took the precaution of requesting advice from Mark at horseracingtraders.com before doing so and his response gave me enough confidence to go for it.
And, as could have been expected, based on the average profit for each day last week, the profit doubled too. The increased liability had no bearing on my ability to trade comfortably and effectively. Even so, it will be a lot more than a week before I consider increasing again. The really exciting thing is how this new string to my bow has ensured that a nice profit was made when football offered few or no opportunities. Plus, during the dark days of Winter, when staying in is all there is to do, trading nags will be a welcome way to fill the miserable afternoons.

No football again today but there might be something on the coupon tomorrow, from Finland.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 10 October 2011

Utd never cost me so much!


On Saturday we attended a charity auction in aid of the Downs Syndrome Association. As the auction began, Mrs. Lambretta made her way to the Ladies. She returned five minutes later to find me receiving a standing ovation for being the winning bidder on a Box at Old Trafford, for any game, including Champions League. I've never been to OT and to have the choice of game was too good an opportunity to miss. No, I couldn't afford it, really. And yes, I did receive the bollocking of all bollockings later. But sometimes, these things just have to be done. Plus, it's for a fantastic cause. 
Matthew Lorenzo was the compere, (remember him?), bloody good he was too. There were some other real bargains to be had, a Spurs shirt singed by VDV, signed Lions shirt, loads of Celtic and Rangers stuff and a huge array of non sport related bits. Much as it would've been good to pick up some more memorabilia, the likelihood of my still being married on Sunday morning may have been somewhat remote.

Saturday's trading was very good again, which is just as well. Couple of silly errors that stopped it being the best day yet but still comparable with the rest of the week.
I have received a couple of requests for the details of the service I signed up to. In relation to what this service has achieved for me already, the sign up cost is cheap. The support is personal, rapid and encouraging. 
I'm signed up, so there's no commission in this for me, I'm always happy to plug a service that I believe to be good. There is a limit to member numbers for, what will become on sign up, obvious reasons. http://horseracingtraders.com/ 

Along with a box at OT, Saturday delivered a raging hangover, which still has hold. No trading of any sort today. 

Whatever you trade, stay green. Whatever you buy, do it on your own.


Saturday, 8 October 2011

No danger

John Terry attempts the Farting Crane move, to no avail.
My last tweet of the evening read "Job done. 0-2. Staying in for the duration". Actually the liability was removed at HT and the game finished a scratch. England visibly relaxed after the first, which was clearly poor defending from JT, and switched off after the second.
There are more people in my village than in Montenegro, they have to be congratulated on achieving a major milestone in their very short history. 
Knowing they only needed the draw and proving they could rather easily beat Montenegro seemed enough for the players, this is reflected in the Winners Market price which, as expected, hasn't changed. With Rooney missing, it may change when the first game is announced, depending on the opponent. 
A pessimistic friend sent a text which read "Why are England so sh*t?", I've asked him to lay them to me at 15's, he hasn't responded yet...

Time is always short on Friday's, taking Lambretta Jr. swimming and the like. By the time the PC's were switched on, the lethargy had kicked in and, though a profit was made, only a few races were traded. Today will be full on.

Not even looking at the in-play coupon. Whatever you trade, stay green. 


Friday, 7 October 2011

The fear of success


Tuesday was the most successful day of horse race trading I've ever had. Just a couple of losing races, red screens were traded back into green and the profit figure was fantastic, for me anyway. When trading ended for the day, everything was closed down and a huge feeling of satisfaction and confidence came over me. That was, until I sat down to begin trading yesterday. Numerous questions flooded my head...Had it been a fluke? Was it simply down to luck? Would the markets act differently today? Could I trade as well again? These questions began to effect my attitude and by the time trading began for the first race, my confidence and optimism had all but been replaced by fear and doubt. 
These questions though were not the real issue. In truth, the question was - How could I handle the idea, if I was successful again, after all the time, money and endeavour that has been invested, it was now possible for me to trade horses profitably? I had a fear of winning.
The first race ended with a small red, which obviously increased the negative feelings already present. The second race ended with a much larger red. So, I stopped, took stock, sat quietly and mentally reviewed the winning trades from Tuesday, then mentally watched myself trading the races to come and doing so with profit. Took a deep breath and began trading again.
From that third race onward, I was back in the groove. More races than Tuesday were traded but, comparatively, yesterday had been as good as Tuesday. 
I'm not suggesting I've become Neo, seeing the world in numerical form. Nor is it possible for me to predict the future like the Oracle but maybe, just maybe, I might be plugged into the Matrix...

(BTW - I'm not a Sci-Fi nerd, it's just a good analogy)

Regular readers will know I've backed England to win Euro2012. The squad will look very different come next Summer and the announcement of the new manager, probably Harry, will be a massive boost. (Very sad to see Psycho has removed himself from the running). Tonight's game will have little effect on the price and the arrest of Rooney Sr. will, apparently, not effect the play of Jr.
For whatever reason England are poor at home. The 0-0 with Montenegro was totally unexpected and my guess is the squad will want this rectified and to top the group properly. Despite needing just a point, Capello has already made plain England are there for the win. I made a solemn promise not to touch the football markets until next week but, the draw price is a gift at 3.55. I will sneak some 0-0 pre game though, just in case.

A punter friend asked how confident I am that England would win Euro2012 - I reminded him I had backed Holland for last year's World Cup.

Whatever you trade, stay green. 

 

Thursday, 6 October 2011

A nose in front



So far, so good.

Yesterday's nag trading was by far the best yet. Confidence was such that, within my Camtasia recordings, I can be heard singing along to, amongst others, Ray Charles, Jackie Wilson and Portishead. There is definitely a great deal more opportunity in certain races than others (I'd like to be more detailed but that would be unfair on the service provider) and it hasn't been difficult to recognise why certain races have been losers for me. Happily though, the errors are decreasing daily and the profit is increasing.

During this period of footballing reflection, one experiment being carried out is trying to discover how predictive odds can be. Using a filter on just Fav odds (no higher than 1.8), Draw odds (between 4 - 5), Over 2.5 odds (up to 1.9) and 0-0 odds (minimum 12's), the goal is to see how many games finish with a win for the favourite, the dog or draw. The sample number is small right now but there has been just one away win and no draws. Always worth dabbling in these things as new things can always be discovered.
MarketMatcher is a great tool to use for stuff like this, as well as being a massive time saver for filtering the card. Again, I'm recommending this tool because it's good and the guy who brought it to market is one of the good ones, I'm not on a commission.

This break from football is doing the world of good. Having time in the evening is great but the sh*t they put on the TV these days...

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 4 October 2011

So glad it was a red.

Sounds crazy doesn't it? True though. Yesterday's trade was a 0-0 and I'm glad of it. It could've been avoided had I read what was in front of me. Amongst my stats was one indicator that should have stopped me getting involved. It wasn't ignored, you have to know something is there to ignore it, I simply didn't see it. Not only did this same indicator help me in avoiding a loss in Germany at the weekend, it actually prompted me to back 0-0, (as per Sunday's post). The reason I'm glad of the red is because it tells me, in no uncertain terms, I need to step away, take a proper break from football and come back with fresh eyes. It was my intention to lay off and look at things anyway but now it will be a full stop on football for at least a week. With the internationals, timing couldn't be better.

Conversely, the horse trading goes from strength to strength. Yesterday was the best profit day yet. There were still losing races and one which could have been a great deal worse but overall it was very good. Apart from the things I have picked up as a member of a new service and my very slowly increasing skill level, yesterday's success can be put down to just one thing - Camtasia. This piece of software allows you to record what's happening on your screen, so you can examine what was good and bad after the race. Using my Skype headset, I was able to talk through what I was doing and why, then laugh out loud and disagree with myself when watching it back. Using a tool like this instantly makes you more disciplined because you know you will be scrutinising yourself afterwards. They won't pay me and there's no link between me and them but, highly recommend giving it a go, there's a 30 day free trial.

Not even looking at the coupon... Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 3 October 2011

Peaks and troughs

Regular readers will remember the suggestion to back Spurs, as their fixture list, up to the game with Chelsea, would see them trade a lot lower than the price available at the time. Thanks to their relatively easy win over Arsenal, the price crashed. The game was also good for the season lay of Arsenal. I cannot recommend enough taking the time to go through the fixtures to find long and short term trades.

After the disaster that was Saturday, yesterday got right back to form with three nice trades. The Finnish game certainly didn't go as expected but green is green, no matter where it comes from. Hacken took an uncomfortably long time to find their winner but find it they did. Helsingborg was text book.

This week is the beginning of another international break. Ordinarily, I loathe these breaks as they decimate the coupons and leave very few good opportunities but I'm welcoming this one as it will give me time to review recent results, make changes where necessary and, in particular, it gives me two weeks to focus on trading horses, something which I have become very excited about and am very much enjoying. Plus, there's a new set of filters that need some tweaking before the leagues return.

One selection for today - Aalesund v Start

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Sunday, 2 October 2011

Sun burn ya red, red.

The blistering October heat and the markets had me red all over yesterday. Over confidence on the nag trading saw me get slammed and the Malaga v Getafe game went all wrong. I walked away when Malaga got their equaliser. This morning shows the gamblers would've had a result but that's not for me. I am aware many draw layers took a hit yesterday, particularly in Germany. That game and it's scoreline were my only saving grace on the day...


Bit short on time today, these are the picks - Hacken v Trelleborg - Helsingborg v Norrkoping - JJK v KuPS.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 1 October 2011

Haystack needles




On first glance, today's fixture list looked to have a great many opportunities. Goteborg should beat Mjallby but fourth spot is all but sewn up... Villa only seem to be able to draw these days and the recent H2H's with Wigan are not good. City should trounce Blackburn but the game fails on the first set of filters. Southampton should coast past Watford but the Hornets have a really nasty habit of scoring first. The list of filter failures goes on until we reach Malaga v Getafe (My thinking has just been confirmed by an Ian Erskine email). Fortunately I managed to get the price before the FTS hoards descend. This is definitely the only game for me.

Nice trade last night. Managed to get 50% stake matched at 4.8, price was 5.3 at KO. Hoped for a later goal but Heracles scored on 12 minutes. Thanks to getting the 4.8, I was able to take a decent green at HT, when the price was 9.4.

More success with the nag trading. Only traded 11 races yesterday with just two losers. As there are so few games to trade and as my only pick KO's at 9pm, I'll spend the afternoon trading nags and keep an eye on futbol24 to see if any other opportunities arise.

Whatever you trade, stay green.