BBC Sport | Football | World Edition

Friday, 7 October 2011

The fear of success

Tuesday was the most successful day of horse race trading I've ever had. Just a couple of losing races, red screens were traded back into green and the profit figure was fantastic, for me anyway. When trading ended for the day, everything was closed down and a huge feeling of satisfaction and confidence came over me. That was, until I sat down to begin trading yesterday. Numerous questions flooded my head...Had it been a fluke? Was it simply down to luck? Would the markets act differently today? Could I trade as well again? These questions began to effect my attitude and by the time trading began for the first race, my confidence and optimism had all but been replaced by fear and doubt. 
These questions though were not the real issue. In truth, the question was - How could I handle the idea, if I was successful again, after all the time, money and endeavour that has been invested, it was now possible for me to trade horses profitably? I had a fear of winning.
The first race ended with a small red, which obviously increased the negative feelings already present. The second race ended with a much larger red. So, I stopped, took stock, sat quietly and mentally reviewed the winning trades from Tuesday, then mentally watched myself trading the races to come and doing so with profit. Took a deep breath and began trading again.
From that third race onward, I was back in the groove. More races than Tuesday were traded but, comparatively, yesterday had been as good as Tuesday. 
I'm not suggesting I've become Neo, seeing the world in numerical form. Nor is it possible for me to predict the future like the Oracle but maybe, just maybe, I might be plugged into the Matrix...

(BTW - I'm not a Sci-Fi nerd, it's just a good analogy)

Regular readers will know I've backed England to win Euro2012. The squad will look very different come next Summer and the announcement of the new manager, probably Harry, will be a massive boost. (Very sad to see Psycho has removed himself from the running). Tonight's game will have little effect on the price and the arrest of Rooney Sr. will, apparently, not effect the play of Jr.
For whatever reason England are poor at home. The 0-0 with Montenegro was totally unexpected and my guess is the squad will want this rectified and to top the group properly. Despite needing just a point, Capello has already made plain England are there for the win. I made a solemn promise not to touch the football markets until next week but, the draw price is a gift at 3.55. I will sneak some 0-0 pre game though, just in case.

A punter friend asked how confident I am that England would win Euro2012 - I reminded him I had backed Holland for last year's World Cup.

Whatever you trade, stay green. 



  1. interesting blog and a good read. Ive been trading the draw myself for awhile now. what strategy do you use for the horses?

  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

  3. Thanks.

    I trade both pre race and in-running. Couldn't give away the strategies, they're expensive. If you'd like the details of the service I subscribed to, drop me an email.

  4. I've tried pre race but found that one bad move wiped out all the profit I had made. Whats your email? Wouldn't mind the details of the subscription..thanks