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Tuesday, 25 October 2011

Knowing when and why

Much of my in-play, football trading time is now spent with one screen dedicated to Twitter. It's fascinating seeing what trades other people are making on which ever games are live. A lot of games wouldn't even reach my first filter list but somehow, some traders find enough of an angle and enough liquidity to trade them. A lot of what goes on is basic stuff; laying the current score, laying the dog, laying 2.5/1.5 goals etc. The one that comes up most frequently is laying the draw at HT. This makes no sense to me at all.
The idea seems to be lay the draw then trade out at 1.9/1.8, nothing wrong in the maths necessarily, until you take one stat into account - The quietest periods for goals in the average game are 1-15 minutes and 45-60 minutes. Laying the draw across the first 15 minutes of the second half offers very little, if any, value. Fair enough, if the game is 2-2 you might expect more goals but at 1-1 or especially 0-0, the price of the trade is out of kilter with what is statistically likely to happen.
Now, the busiest period for goals in the average game is between 60-90+minutes. At this stage of the game, the price of the draw is a great deal smaller than at HT and it's statistically more likely that a goal will be scored. The only difference is there is no trade out point, which makes it gambling rather than trading. However, this is one of those gambles that only needs to be right 51% of the time to make it worthwhile, less if you enter the market correctly. When all others are exiting their trades at the 70minute/2.00 mark, the market is offering a much better price for a much greater chance. (40% of all goals are scored in the last half hour). That's value, in my opinion.

Standard stuff yesterday. The Brighton v West Ham game was anyone's guess. I dutched the 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 & 2-2 in-play but Brighton were really awful up front and created nothing. Came out with a small red. Nags went well.
Cup games, in-particular, Carling Cup games are usually a swerve for me, so I'll be going in-play with whatever's on the box.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

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