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Monday, 7 November 2011

Reilly's on the blower again

Where as all my previous, pre nag trading, Saturdays were spent jumping in and out of the football markets, now it's necessary for me choose my football trades in the morning and spend the afternoon rinsing the nag markets.
The three trades chosen for Saturday went perfectly. The Newcastle v Everton game was built around the 1-1 and included 2-1. Nice green.
The Arsenal v WBA dutch was built around the 2-1, I did expect a goal from the Baggies but 3-0 was included.
Chelsea, as expected, scored the text book away win.
Nags went swimmingly and this week Betfair managed to keep everything working until just before end of play. Today, however, they've managed to royally f@ck it up again and no trading can be done on this moody, miserable, Monday afternoon.
Sunday was equally as good as Saturday. Nags went brilliantly, despite only two cards. Football was fantastic -
Laid Leicester @ 1.97, they lost.
Laid the draw at Motherwell, came good eventually.
Laid Wolves at 1-0, @ 1.37, shot out to 2.34 after the equaliser.
Arbed the draw and 1-1 (see below) in both the Wolves and Fulham games. Nice green on both.
Dutched the Bolton v Stoke game. Small red.
X Factor trading on both nights went really well and, whilst I still have a small red on him, I don't expect Craig Colton to win and the green on all others is too good to hedge. Frankie staying was a massive boost to my book and Marcus' price has collapsed to around 4's. Bloody shame BF aren't running a book on the US version.

I've been tweeting some of my trades and yesterday did so for both draw and 1-1 arbs. This is a trade I use often and, though it's not for everyone, it proves very profitable for me. When the favourite scores in a game where the draw price is quite low, often the market will reset with the draw price still fairly low and may not be that much higher than it was pre KO. Usually though, the 1-1 price will be out of kilter and it's possible to back 1-1 and lay the draw for a nicely arbed profit. 2-2 or 3-3 are dangers but I will never take on a game where these scores have featured in recent games or H2H's.

No trading for me today.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

1 comment:

  1. How appropriate that an unknown factor should arise in the X Factor betting... I see that many of the previously eliminated contestants are now being offered at long odds - if you think a sub will come in, I guess it might be worth a small punt on which one it will be...

    Hope Frankie's exit hasn't naused up your green too much. If Craig is your weak point, you might be in trouble - less obviously gay than Marcus, as he sheds pounds he may pick up Frankie voters...

    I can give you very good reasons why none of the others will win. Look forward to discussing this in depth in person on Friday!