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Friday, 23 December 2011

Achieving goals & a seasonal message.

My schedule at the minute is such that I barely get time to look at the markets, let alone post on here. Something I hope to change in the New Year. Only the nag seasonal break and a house full of tradesmen gives me this opportunity.

Some nice dutches this week, both Wolves and last night's Spurs v Chelsea game have provided very nice greens, with 2-2 and 1-1 included respectively.

Yesterday provided a very timely best nag trading day ever. Surpassing the previous best by 20%. The chat room provided by horseracingtraders.com is frequented by some very knowledgable traders, from whom I've learnt a great deal and, undoubtedly, I've made a profit from their advice.

With twelve meetings on Boxing Day and a full card of football, it will be a busy day. Not until the morning will I get chance to study. I have been posting some trades on Twitter - @layingthedraw.

2011 has been an incredible year. On reviewing my personal goals for the year, though not to the letter, I'm really pleased to be able to say I have achieved them all. Our house is as good as finished, I am fitter than I've been in many years and I am ten times the sport trader I was a year ago.
I'm finding it difficult to lay out my goals for 2012, only because I genuinely cannot think of anything, in the short term and within my own control, that I feel will improve my life and that of my nearest and dearest. As such, I hope 2011 has been as good to you as it has to me, and that 2012 will be even better.

Merry Xmas, a prosperous and very happy New Year.

Stay green.

Thursday, 15 December 2011

Back on track

Before racing began yesterday, I spent a couple of hours watching and re-watching my own Camtasia videos, recorded when I first began using these new nag trading techniques. It was a very worthwhile exercise, for two reasons. Firstly, it showed me, once again, that I had veered a long way from the original techniques and rules. These were re-employed yesterday and a very nice green was taken from all but two races from twenty four. Much of the loss from the previous two days was recouped. The other thing that has been missing from my nag trading, which I was totally unaware of, is how much I had been enjoying it. My own dulcet tones coming over the audio to each video, proved that I was having a great time during each trading session. The level of confidence needed to return to the same amount of glee is still lacking but I expect it to return shortly.

Whilst yesterday's nags went well, annoyingly, the football did not. The prices weren't great value but 0-1 was covered from the off, in addition to other scores, in the Besiktas v Stoke game. As soon as Upson was ordered from the field and the resulting penalty was converted, I closed for a loss, 3-1 at FT.
I'll be trying a similar set of scores tonight for Brugge v Braga. Were I laying the draw this month, though I haven't studied the game, I'd likely be LTD in the Birmingham v Maribor game.

Short on time today as Lambretta Jr. stars in his first Nativity this afternoon, he's a shepherd. I'm taking a drawing pin in my pocket, to push into my leg, to stop me weeping in front of the yummy Mummy's.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 14 December 2011

Stick to the path

Nag trading for me was always the unassailable height, the uncrossable chasm, the unreachable summit. After many expensive endeavours, I finally gave up and got on with what I was good at, trading football. Then I signed up to horseracingtraders.com, (this is not a plug, membership is now closed), from where I learnt to trade horses very effectively indeed. All the aspects never previously revealed to me were now handed to me on a plate - correct entry and exit points, correct market shape, understanding of both in-running and pre race strategies. Mark, the service provider, uses methods that suit my style perfectly and, his delivery makes it very easy to understand how to make very good consistent profits. Why then, over the last two days, have I managed to reduce the nag bank by the best part of £800? Simple. Because I didn't trade in any way like I had been shown to do. Fortunately, Mrs. Lambretta always proves a fantastic sounding board and after ten minutes of her logic, which basically boiled down to "why weren't you doing what you had been taught?", I returned to trade the last seven races of the day, all to a nice profit.
I've posted about evolving these methods and how fixing what isn't broken is never a good idea before. I realise now that it's my own bravado and conceitedness that forces me to think "I can do this better". The truth, of course, is that I can do it well, when I follow the rules. Ego is a traders worst enemy. Before you make my mistake, leave yours a long way from your trading station.

Some decent dutches at the weekend. Arsenal v Everton was covered at HT and finished with a small green. The Norwich v Newcastle game was 1-1 at HT, which offered 105% which was taken.
The CS prices for Chelsea v Man City were very generous and offered a staggering 2/1 for dutched 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2. Very nice green there.

The only game worth looking at is the Besiktas v Stoke game for me. Stoke have qualified, Besiktas only need a point to go through, they could top the group but I expect it to be a bore draw. 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0.

Whatever you trade, stay green. Whatever your rules, stay inside them.

Saturday, 10 December 2011

Where have all the heroes gone?

The mother-in-law visited last night and brought with her a magazine containing an article from Jarvis Cocker. After speaking with some school children, (in a controlled and secure environment), he had drawn the conclusion that Heaven had now been replaced, in the minds of the young, by fame. Suggesting that they saw fame as the answer to all problems they may have or face. Adding the above to a post written by Gundulf, I pondered on the role models we see on the pitch today compared to those from yesteryear.
George Best was famed for his drinking and philandering as much he was for his talent and ultimately paid the price. But he was a real hero and people love/d him. What is there to love about those that are considered to be today's best players? So many are petulant, spiteful, childish and totally unworthy. Those that genuinely deserve such high accolade and praise are, so often, over looked. The one exception is Lionel Messi. To my mind, the best the world has seen and, as it should be, you hear of him only on the back pages, in yards of column inches, describing his brilliance, not where he was, who he was with, what he was doing etc.
A good example of a wonderful footballer, who was worthy of all that was bestowed upon him and more, from whom you heard nothing untoward, throughout his entire career, is Paul Scholes. A better footballing role model you would be hard pushed to find. Of course, the same can be said for Gary Speed, safe journey.

Today I shall be mostly trading, Arsenal v Everton. It's a big day for Arsenal with an anniversary and RVP's opportunity to beat Henry's record of most goals in a calendar year. Home win. There is a suggestion that Everton are lacking up front but they are averaging 1.3 goals per away game in the Prem. 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 3-0, 3-1.
Norwich v Newcastle - Newcastle are without their top men in the back line and Norwich have only failed to score once at Home this season. The same can be said for Newcastle away. Only W. Brom and Arsenal have taken 3pts at Carrow Road. Jumped on the Over 2.5 last night at 1.86, currently 1.81, I'm tempted to leave it. 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2.

Tonight sees the X-Factor final. After greening up my lay of Marcus, I now have a very nice green book, but there is no stand out winner, as there is most years. The price for Little Mix is the only static of the three and I'm very tempted to use some green to back Amelia Lily at 4.5.

Whatever you trade, stay green. Whatever course you take, make sure it's the correct one...

Thursday, 8 December 2011

Pride of Manchester?

Recently I made a charity donation to secure a pair of tickets to any Man Utd Home game, including Champions League. Only this week I phoned to confirm for the first Champions League Home game in February. Now it seems, I shall be watching Man Utd v Maccabi Plzen Kiev Dogshit or some other spurious team. Don't get me wrong, I certainly don't regret the donation. It went to a great cause, but it would have been even better spent had Utd drawn one of Europe's big guns and I was there to see it.
A friend of mine, Man Utd fan, was set to be joining me and he, obviously, was a little disappointed. After further discussion we agreed that, as City are looking likely title winners, our predicament may not be that bad. Whilst Fergie will always be optimistic about getting back in title race, it could be that the Europa League may be their saving grace this season.
Against my better judgement, I did get involved with the Utd dutch. Even though I'd seen that Wellbeck wasn't starting and Park was. Valencia should have come on, at the earliest, at HT. Why he added the hapless Macheda, is beyond me. Still he's not the most successful club manager for nothing...
The game was a success for me in the end. The HT 0-0 was very low at 3.25, which was laid and as soon as Basel scored the second, I laid them at 1.04, small liability and big chance Utd would get at least one. Greened at 1.15 after the Utd goal. For those wishing to know the moves made on the dutch to secure a scratch, 1-0 was backed at 13.5 for 10% of stake, then laid late on to add 2-0.

Nothing for today.

Those of you viewing this blog through Chrome will have likely seen a message suggesting there may be malware attached to this site. I've looked into it. Apparently, someone who once read an article about malware, farted on the same Tube carriage as the author of soccerbythenumbers and Google has decided this tenuous link is dangerous to your computer... Read more at your peril.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 7 December 2011

Deciphering double Dutch

Had some requests for more info on the dutch, moves made and how scores/games are chosen. I'd love to say it's all my own work, that I spent years poring over stats and markets etc, etc. Much of it is down to me but I picked up a great deal from two CS greats. One being Bingo of  Trading Football fame and the other Mark Doom-meister Smith.
For me, the trick to dutching successfully is knowing which scores to lay and which to cover when the need arises. Both the Chelsea and Arsenal games were dutched last night, starting with exactly the same scores and, ironically, having the same in-play situation - an early 2-0 lead. In both games the 1-0 was laid after the first goal for 10% of stake and 3-1 was added for 15% of stake. Chelsea looked hungry and there was a real fear of cricket scores. (Chelsea began to score after Lampard was removed on Saturday, he was absent last night and they played their best game of the season, coincidence?) After 2-0, I took a red of 27%, knowing later opportunities would come. At HT, I dutched 3-0 and AUQ, at a generous even money, which paid dividends.
From the in-play stats in Greece, it was obvious that the game had calmed down and that was left to run for a nice green.
Picking games and scores is very subjective but the best starting point is to look for regularly occurring scores for each team and take into account recent H2H's. From there, get an idea of what you think is the most likely score and work around that. There is more to it and there are other tricks to apply but it would unfair, to certain other parties, who have put in all the work and research, to give too much away. Trial and error is always the best learning curve.

I'm tempted by the United game. Basel need the win to overcome Utd's better goal difference, meaning they'll have to go for it and leave themselves exposed, Wellbeck and Rooney up front is likely but I'll await more team news. If traded, probable scores will be 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2 with a view to adding 0-3 or 1-3 later if necessary.
City need to win and cross their fingers Villareal, yet to secure a point, can get something against Napoli. Bayern have already qualified but I doubt they'll make up the numbers, despite missing the likes of Robben.
I'll be watching both these games and looking to get involved with both in-play if not before.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 6 December 2011

A good example

After posting yesterday, I received an email asking for an example of how dutching might be a better, more profitable, safer option than LTD. Now, I must stress that I too am still questioning whether or not this is true but I'm dedicating the bank, study time and the entire month of December to finding out.
Last night's game between Fulham and Liverpool is a very good example. 0-0 had been covered, the game looked like it would stay that way or a marginal Liverpool win as suggested, until Spearing was sent off. At this point it was possible to lay 0-0 and back 1-0, which I did. Leaving a red on 0-0 and scratch on the 1-0. So, no loss. More importantly though, any loss would've been minimal. Had I laid the draw in this game, (only a mad man would), it would've been a red book at 70 minutes and for more than my original stake. Instead I came out losing nothing and, had the game gone the right way, I would've had close to 100% roi. You rarely get that with LTD.

Tonight's pick is Chelsea v Valencia. Currently neck and neck, Chelsea need to take Home advantage and push away from Valencia. 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 5 December 2011

Good start to a big month and shelving LTD.

December is an expensive month. Even more so, now we've discovered the Lambretta Towers re-furb will be a lot more expensive than previously thought. The good news though, the month is off to a flyer.

Saturday's nag trading could've been truly amazing but it did go very well. The weekend's football was also very good. A dutch of Chelsea, that didn't include 0-3, a late 0-2 meant nice green. And a dutch of Man Utd, which didn't include 0-1, the goal was early enough and the game looked a little shaky, so a decent early green taken there. I planned to LTD Sheff Wed in the FA Cup but there wasn't enough money in the market. They scored the winner just after 60 minutes. Yesterday, after finishing yet another lengthy stint with the paint brush, I laid Stoke and backed 0-1 - scratch. Wolves v Sunderland went a lot better. Laid both 0-0 and U2.5 at HT, game finished 2-1.

Over these last few months, I have been making comparisons between, your friend and mine, the LTD and the dutch trade. After much deliberation, I have take the decision to stop laying the draw throughout the month of December.
Both the bank and the study time allocated to LTD will be utilised for dutch trades. There's a couple of reasons for doing this. If I dutch 4, 5 or 6 scores in a game, my potential red is a great deal less than if LTD. Plus, and this is a major benefit, I have a great many more opportunities to exit a trade for a much smaller loss than if LTD. Another major benefit is the likelihood of many more tradeable games each day. The only real danger to the dutch is very quick, early goals, even then you can, very often, exit for scratch. The big decider will be the P&L for that account at the end of the month. All trades will be posted here. Tonight will be Fulham v Liverpool. 0-0, 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2.

X-Factor trading truly could not have gone any better. Misha was laid last week as an outright. As predicted, she is now gone. I originally backed Marcus at 26, I have now laid him back at 2.6, to scratch, he's now 3.9.
Suddenly, Amelia Lily looks big at 3.5.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 3 December 2011

Remember, remember double stakes in December

So much going on right now, it's difficult to find the time to post. Each morning my phone goes off, telling me which part of the Lambretta Towers re-furb needs to be completed that day. Messers Farrow & Ball will be having their annual holiday courtesy of Mrs. Lambretta next year.

Despite my optimism, November didn't finish as well as I had hoped. It did, however, finish with more than double the profit of October and, considering this is only the second full month, I think I can be justly proud with how it did finish.
My intention was always to increase stakes in December, which I've done. Thursday is the only day traded so far and that finished with a very nice green, despite an early lack of liquidity. Today's cards are good and should hold many opportunities.
Horseracingtraders.com now has it's own chat room facility which, though only two days old, is proving a great addition. Good, experienced traders, as well as newbies, assisting each other and offering ideas. Plus helping each other make a few quid on other sports. Just how a chat room should be.

Not much football done this week but those traded have been profitable. A dutch at Stoke on Thursday included 1-1 and with a late lay of 0-1 proved a very nice green. Yesterday's Leverkusen game was a stand out LTD, I let it run until 70 minutes, only for them to get the winner on 74! A set and go dutch, with 1-1, on the Palace v Derby game capped a short Friday evening of trading.

The coupon for today is no that promising on the LTD front. Haven't had a full look yet but I don't see there being many, if at all.
Last season I had the Villa v Man Utd game pegged at 2-2 and that's how it finished. Can't see it this year. Mcleish is killing a Villa side who were making slow but steady progress, I suspect today will be another nail in their coffin. A draw if they're very lucky. A straight forward dutch for me.

Tonight sees the Semi Final of this year's X Factor. Initially I had Marcus down to win it but he's become a bit of a crooner and likens himself to Jackie Wilson, a comparison I fail to see in anything other than the 'tache, and Jackie is a God in my eyes so, I've decided to green up my back of Marcus, (I got him at 26) and will lay him back. Little Mix are very current and Tulisa has won the young voters. Amelia Lily is very credible but will the public allow a re-entry to win? Misha will go tomorrow.

Yesterday's Euro2012 draw was excellent for trading. I got matched on France and had a little bit more on England just before the draw began. Every man and his dog seems to think I'm bonkers in backing England but, as I've posted before, I have the same feeling about England as I did about Holland last year, they will go close. The concern for them now is to avoid Spain by winning the group, worst case for me though, if they do get Spain, I can lay them in that single game. A great position to be in. As for France, they are on the up. Laurent Blanc, who looks the real deal to me, has not seen a defeat since his tenure began. Again, worst case, I can trade their individual games in the group, if necessary.

After getting spammed by some moron without a life away from his keyboard, my Twitter account has been suspended, so I can't post any trades or in-play moves. Sorry.

Whatever you trade, stay green.