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Wednesday, 7 December 2011

Deciphering double Dutch

Had some requests for more info on the dutch, moves made and how scores/games are chosen. I'd love to say it's all my own work, that I spent years poring over stats and markets etc, etc. Much of it is down to me but I picked up a great deal from two CS greats. One being Bingo of  Trading Football fame and the other Mark Doom-meister Smith.
For me, the trick to dutching successfully is knowing which scores to lay and which to cover when the need arises. Both the Chelsea and Arsenal games were dutched last night, starting with exactly the same scores and, ironically, having the same in-play situation - an early 2-0 lead. In both games the 1-0 was laid after the first goal for 10% of stake and 3-1 was added for 15% of stake. Chelsea looked hungry and there was a real fear of cricket scores. (Chelsea began to score after Lampard was removed on Saturday, he was absent last night and they played their best game of the season, coincidence?) After 2-0, I took a red of 27%, knowing later opportunities would come. At HT, I dutched 3-0 and AUQ, at a generous even money, which paid dividends.
From the in-play stats in Greece, it was obvious that the game had calmed down and that was left to run for a nice green.
Picking games and scores is very subjective but the best starting point is to look for regularly occurring scores for each team and take into account recent H2H's. From there, get an idea of what you think is the most likely score and work around that. There is more to it and there are other tricks to apply but it would unfair, to certain other parties, who have put in all the work and research, to give too much away. Trial and error is always the best learning curve.

I'm tempted by the United game. Basel need the win to overcome Utd's better goal difference, meaning they'll have to go for it and leave themselves exposed, Wellbeck and Rooney up front is likely but I'll await more team news. If traded, probable scores will be 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2 with a view to adding 0-3 or 1-3 later if necessary.
City need to win and cross their fingers Villareal, yet to secure a point, can get something against Napoli. Bayern have already qualified but I doubt they'll make up the numbers, despite missing the likes of Robben.
I'll be watching both these games and looking to get involved with both in-play if not before.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

1 comment:

  1. Thanks, Lamb, I tried this one myself, but with 2-0 going in I exited with a small green as I don't know much about cricket! ;)