BBC Sport | Football | World Edition

Wednesday, 19 December 2012

Reasons for failure

If you watch the news or politically heavy shows, invariably, you will see some MP or other skirting around the truth as to why his or her plan/policy failed to deliver on promises or expectations. The economy takes the blame for the most part or some unexpected aspect came from left field to throw these rock solid ideas into disarray.
The epitome of untruth, politicians make the worst role models because of their inability to be honest. How often do we watch an MP spouting drivel, where you can plainly see he or she is beginning to believe their own bullshit.
With such internal dishonesty, how good a trader would the average MP make?

As ever, the point of this post simple; there are two reasons for failure.
Failure comes from the wrong plan or the wrong people. Sometimes a mix of both but only ever these two.
This then, can be broken down to ever simpler terms - The wrong people will create a bad plan and not adjust it or not create one at all.
The traders maxim "plan the trade, trade the plan" holds firm because the right plan contains the action for every possible outcome.

At the end of your trading today, analyse both your green and red trades and ask yourself was the outcome a result of plan or person? You may be surprised at the answers.

Stay green.

Monday, 10 December 2012

Shameless Plugs



Been so long since I've had time to post. The corporate bollocks being one time killer and then Mrs. Lambretta is laid up after a fairly major stomach op, leaving me to be father, nurse, cleaner, cook, babysitter and bread-winner... BLOODY HARD WORK!

Anyway that out of the way, I'll get to the first of the shameless plugs.
Such is my quest to find the perfect prediction model, I sought to learn more about Paul DePosta, the statistician responsible for the success of the Oakland A's, recreated as Peter Brand in the movie Moneyball - a bloody good movie too.
Turns out that Mr. DePosta's model isn't easily transferred to the markets I would prefer to work in, though I suspect someone a little more technical and, frankly, geekier than me would be able to adapt and apply the method to football. But, in my search for Mr DePosta's model, I came across another more applicable and more logical, for my limited intelligence, plan/method/model. However, whilst it is fairly in-complex, it couldn't be accurately relayed here. Out of respect for the author, I'm not sure I would anyway. So, go and grab yourself a copy of the Signal and the Noise (Why most predictions fail) by Nate Silver. Whatever you want to predict, it has relevance.

And so to my next shameless plug - The guys over at The Sports Trading Academy are hosting two training courses in the New Year. I personally attended the last nag course and it vastly improved my pre-race trading, as such, I would heartily recommend your attendance if you are interested in the sports they are covering. Here's the details;


We will be running 2 four week trading course on Horse Racing Trading and Football and NBA Trading. The courses will run back to back commencing with the Football and NBA course which will start on January 6th 2013. The Football course will run on Sundays and will cover the live games on Sky Sports, both games for the first two Sundays and then One Football match and one NBA game for the last two Sundays. The Horse Racing Trading Course will commence the weekend after the first course is concluded and will be on Saturdays afternoons for four weeks.
Course Content:-
Football
API Set Up
Game Selection
Pre Game Trading
Inplay Trading
Scalping and Leverage
Strategies in Practice
Do's and Don'ts of football trading
Sites and Tools for finding trades
NBA
API Set Up
Pre Game Trading
Swing Trades and Scalping
Understanding Spreads
Horse Trading
API Set Up
Market Analysis
Races to avoid trading
Common Mistakes
Market Formations
Selection of Back 2 Lay and Lay to Backs
Laying The Field
Dutching
Scalping and Swing trading
Following Trends
How to trade outsiders
When to enter and exit trades
Managing Liability
The course will both take the form of a webinar hosted by our resident pro betfair trader, between each session there will be homework to further reinforce the learning and develop your trading skills. The courses are £50 each, but members wishing to take advantage of a place on both courses will receive a 20% discount and pay only £80, places are strictly limited so book early to avoid disappointment.
To book a place, please send a payment to paypal@thesportstradingacademy.com and quote Football, Horses or Both Courses or admin@thesportstradingacademy.com for anymore information.

For those wishing to take a personal Mentorship with our protrader a 1-1 option is available 15 hrs £200.  This is a more in depth package covering all the above plus much more.


Wednesday, 31 October 2012

Clattenburg Gate and Round Two

If ever there was a straight forward argument for introducing video into the Prem (F*ck Blatter, Platini and their chums) Sunday's games were it.
Talking through my pocket slightly as I was confident of another goal in the scouse derby, and it came. Suarez, clearly on-side, slides home the winner... or not.
Then, when the mighty blues manage to retrieve a game that looked lost, Clattenburg manages to fark up a perfectly good game. No arguments with Ivanovic's red, administered to the letter of the law and correct. Torres' I disagree with. The string of faux pas that Clattenburg is accused of actually has small bearing.
When you consider that two of the season's biggest games, played on the same day, were decided by poor decisions from those given the responsibility for the game being governed correctly, what more evidence do you need for adding in a technology that cannot be incorrect? Cricket, Tennis...

So, after Sunday's debacle at Stamford Bridge, what can we expect from round two? Different teams? Almost certainly. Different tactics? Most definitely. But what to expect from a goal and result perspective?
Over 2.5 is currently trading at 1.65, yet the only likely first team, goal scoring starter is Rooney. RVP may be on the bench or have a day off. Torres and Lampard are out. Yes, both teams still have a plethora of goal scorers, particularly Chelsea, but after Sunday's end to end, super fast paced action, should we expect the same again?
Over 2.5 is a 20 minute lay for me and I'll be trading the 2-1 from KO too.

Whatever you trade, stay green.


Monday, 29 October 2012

I must be getting old

Set up almost the perfect trade yesterday in what, I was confident, would be a high scoring game.
The markets expected the same or similar in the Chelsea v Man U game and had U3.5 at 1.7, which to this trader looked good value, with some cover on the 0-0 which was 18.5.
Took the 0-0 just before KO knowing that this would not take long to reach a point where I had a free trade but also being aware that, obviously, early goals would not be an issue...
BANG! David Luiz scores with his arse after a couple of minutes and, whilst my 0-0 stake was gone, the U3.5 flew out. Ten minutes later Chelsea were found asleep by the awesome RVP, he nets and the trade is guaranteed green, should I choose to take it, which I didn't, being confident of more goals.
Those goals came, Mark Clattenburg metaphorically gave Fergie a nosh and the game was all over.
Then I had that moment. The realisation, the knowing, the sinking in of the mistake you've made before you get actual confirmation... Yes, I had covered the 0-0 but I hadn't laid the U3.5 as was my intention. So, essentially I'd just had a large bet on 0-0. The boys at Betfair must have been laughing their nuts off at the numpty who thought the game would finish goal-less.

I must add that I put my trainers in the fridge last week and the cheese in the hallway, dementia is setting in, though I am but a youthful 40!

Stay green.



Wednesday, 24 October 2012

Tales of the Unexpected...

A really good trio of games last night and whilst the final results were expected, some of the performances were not.
Chelsea, as the markets suggested, were not expected to win against a Shaktar side who have not lost for something near a year. From what I saw, they never looked in the game. No trade for me in this one but, given the outcome and performance, the European Champions looked a cheap lay.
Utd were expected to beat a decent Braga side and they did but their price was short and many expected and traded the early away goal. My lay of AUQ was easily covered, finishing with a nice green. 
The lay of U4.5 in Barca, with 0-0 cover made for an easy trade. Managed to get my 0-0 back matched at 55 and traded out for covering green at 30, leaving a free trade, which resulted in a scratch. With Celtic's opener and Barca struggling to break them down, a lay of Celtic at 7.6 and a back of 0-1 at 23's was the best and most profitable trade of the night.
And it was Celtic who brought about the most unexpected of last night's events. Albeit an own goal from Mascherano, Celtic taking the lead at the Camp Nou is the stuff of dreams but for them to keep out the most potent strike force in football today, to the extent that they did, was truly heroic. Fraser Forster was truly fantastic between the sticks, making incredible reaction and, what seemed to be, out of reach saves. 
I'm not a fan of Celtic or Scottish football as a whole but whatever accolades are heaped on them, they are all truly deserved after such a brilliant performance. 

I like 2-2 as trade-able in both the Arsenal and City games tonight.

Stay green. 





Tuesday, 16 October 2012

Polish them off

Tonight England play a rival who have caused some upset in the past and dashed English hopes and, for a change, the markets are reflecting this.
This Poland side are lacking in my opinion. Their attempt this Summer, as co-hosts, to show a certain level futtered out quickly with their failure to move past the group stage.
England have won 9, drawn 2 and lost just 1 of their last 12 away games. With a victory tonight, they can all but look past this stage and concentrate on training & planning for the final event.
As suggested, tonight's markets are on our side. At 1.98, England are massive IMO and, with cover on 1-1, look a very safe trade. With few goals expected, should it go pear shaped, real trouble should be easily avoidable.
That expectation of few goals leaves Overs at 2.28, which is probably about right but will definitely be worth trading in-play, around the stats, for the first goal.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 8 October 2012

Camelot really not so rounded after all.

Rare I should post regarding actual nag racing but after yesterday's Arc De Triomphe I felt it necessary.
I'd laid Camelot in the St. Leger based on trip and other factors, which proved very worthwhile. Comparatively, yesterday's price seemed even better than that of the Doncaster race, based on opposition and likelihood. I laid Camelot again for a liability that matched the previous green, so as to ensure no real loss. A few short furlongs, or metres, later and Camelot was beaten yet again.

Decent afternoon of football yesterday too. A back of 1-0 at 11.5 (Southampton), after the goal, saw a nice return just after HT.
I dutched 0-2, 1-2, 2-2 in the Toon v Man Utd game. After the second goal I laid AUQ, which has a tendancy to over-react in that situation and, sure enough, a solid forty ticks green made for a freebie trade on the dutch. Just after HT I took out the stake and a little bit more on 0-2, added it to 0-3 and let it run.

Another international break. I'm not sure which is worse, the break from the Premiership, having to endure all the bollocks spouted by numerous farkwit's in the media or watching the football itself.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Friday, 28 September 2012

Lunchtime market trawling

Sat here at my desk in corporate London, I find I have a few, brief moments to explore tomorrow's Premiership markets. Overall, it looks a tricky card though there is one opportunity that stands out.
Everton's early form has been vastly over estimated and their current price of 1.45 looks far too short. Though not taking many points, Southampton have proven themselves worthy of this league and will be growing in confidence, particularly after giving Villa a very real wake-up call.
Everton are a lay for me and the CS market offers great value for cover.

Once again, I'll wax lyrical about the skill and endeavour of Robbo from @TSTA. This week he took time out of his own trading to walk me through another of his strategies, a particularly profitable one.
If the opportunity to get involved should present itself, my advice is to take it.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 19 September 2012

I should do this for a living...

Real Madrid v Man City - Best game I've seen in a long time. The quality on show, all over the park, was phenomenal and the goals were fantastic.
I'm not a huge fan of City but I do like to see English clubs doing well in Europe and I'd be lying of I said I didn't feel for them after Ronaldo's winner.
It was a great game from a trading point of view as well. A real value lay of AUQ at 6's made for a very nice green and I'd allowed my dutched scores to run up to 80 minutes in Montpellier. Another nice lump.

At the weekend my good friend Robbo, of The Sports Trading Academy, began a three part course on pre race nag trading. After just the first session I'm seeing a real improvement in my entry points, entry times and discipline. If you get the opportunity to join the next one, it is very much advised.

Will be watching Chelsea with only in-play trades on tonight's card.

Stay green.

Monday, 17 September 2012

...and, as if to prove my point..,

...City drew as well.

It stands to reason that a bookie offering you a price is doing so because it offers value to them not you. The same goes for the TV ads you see pre game and HT, offering "Live Odds" on the first/next goal scorer, number of corners etc. They, like us, study stats to determine a likely outcome and make a tissue around that outcome. Would they offer 10/1 about Berba scoring next if they thought it would really happen? Course not. But guess how many mugs snatch up their phones with the cry "I'm avvin' summa dat!" when they see it.
I'm the last advocate of Betfair as a service provider, frankly they are appalling, but the idea and concept works and because of that we, as traders or punters, should be able to enter the market at the right price.

Everton v Newcastle
The Toffees have a decent Home record against Toon but I'm not convinced about tonight. They are WWL & Newcastle are WLD. The MO market has Everton about right, if a little short but 1-1 is huge at 8.8 and with cover here, I'll be hoping to get a bit bigger about Everton in-play.

Whatever you trade, stay green .



Saturday, 15 September 2012

Bookies schmookies

Betfair would be the perfect betting portal were it not for their lazy arsed approach to regular outages and their ridiculous premium charges. And they might attract more of their precious "punters" if they got their marketing right...
If they want to attract me, bookies also need to change their message.
I can't remember who from, as I deleted it straight away, but I received an email from a bookie this week, suggesting today could be a "Super Saturday" - based on Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool and City winning. The odds on offer for this four fold were, according to them, massive at 9.5, or 17/2 in old money. So, in essence, this email loosely translated, in my head anyway, as thus:

Dear F*ckwit,

We believe you are as thick as pig sh*t. Consequently, we want to offer you desperately poor odds about a four fold that we think you are likely to take on because you are as thick as pig sh*t. It is highly unlikely that this this four fold will come in as draws are invariably borne of the Fav playing away. So, our banker is Liverpool losing or drawing. But guess what? Because we've offered desperately poor odds, it doesn't really matter if it does come in.

Thanks for the free money, bitch.

See you next week.

Betfair is the necessary evil but, if you're not in the PC range, bet against opinion, where value is always on offer.

Stay green.

Tuesday, 11 September 2012

...a change gonna come.

I did my sums this morning and calculated I spend more time on trains each week than I do with my boys. That won't do at all.
Additionally, that time spent on trains means I have very little time to study games. Fortunately, that's not true of tonight's.

Last Friday I laid the HT 0-0 to great effect. Couldn't be as confident of doing the same tonight, but will look to do it in-play, and there is very little value in CS right now.
That said, at 10's, 2-1 is looking okay. Ukraine haven't scored in their last three but the beauty of 2-1 is, regardless of who scores first, the price will drop. As long as it's not too late in the game.

Anyway. It's good to be posting again. Whatever you trade, stay green.

Friday, 10 August 2012

The slight return of the return...

Updated post from last week...


I'm loving the corporate life and all it brings with it. That said, there are aspects of trading that I miss more than expected. The new season is soon upon us and the thought of trading midweek, evening games has me really excited. Conversely, the thought of sitting down and trading an entire coupon on a Saturday afternoon leaves me quite void of anything like excitement. On those occasions when a Saturday afternoon is available to me, my plan is to spend it trading nags. I conquered the in-play side but never mastered the pre race part and I hate the idea that anything has beaten me. Which leads me to the point of this post - My good friends over at the Sports Trading Academy are running a four week (Saturday afternoons) nag trading course. Incorporating every aspect of this dark art - the course was due to start last week but tech issues scuppered that, so it starts this Saturday.


Week one - Pre race trading the Place Market

Week two - Pre race trading the Win Market

Week Three - Trading the Ladders in-running

Week four - Pre race and in-running combination trading

2:00pm - 3:30pm each week with Q&A after trading.


I know TSTA's Robbo of old and he is not only an excellent, very profitable trader but a very good tutor too. The whole course is just £50. I'm already signed up, you can sign up here paypal@thesportstradingacademy.com


Once the season begins, I shall return to posting regularly, that's something I have missed and apparently some of you have too.


Until then, stay green.

Monday, 2 July 2012

A fine and fitting end

One week from today, I shall once again jump on the giant wheel of commerce. Squishing and squashing myself on to an early morning train to Euston, to solicit myself in the big city for the corporate dollar. I can't wait!
It's true. I can't. Mine is a genuine excitement about putting on my suit, having grown up business conversations and climbing the greasy pole. Where this renewed enthusiasm for all things corporate has emerged from, I know not but it's there and I like it.
The timing of all this could not really have been better. It was my hope and wish to finish full time trading with a bang and, thanks to Euro2012, I did just that.
Backing Italy before the tournament began, at 18's, was a great move. Initially, I was looking to trade out after the group stages around 10's, but opportunities to keep the trade open kept presenting themselves. I greened before the final at just over 4's.
Again, before the tournament began, I dutched Germany and Spain to win. It never felt necessary to touch this trade/bet. Spain were truly magnificent and it's no over statement to suggest Del Bosque has changed the future of football. Who can question it? They were missing key players and still looked and played a class above.
There were a couple of reds but they were out weighed by numerous greens from the CS market.
A great tournament, won by a truly great team, ending a great period for me with a great bank of trades.

And so it is, my sports trading brethren, that I end this piece and my trading career with one final request - Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 20 June 2012

He's done it.

The pressure is off for Roy Hodgson.
Two wins and a draw see England win the group, more than anyone realistically hoped for.
The tide has turned. With exception of the woefully biased ref against France, the rub of the green now seems to be in England's favour. Ukraine are incensed about the ball crossing the line but their boy was offside anyway. We are a lot more used to having those go against us.
All this and guess what - I have to read texts and tweets from numbskulls whinging and whining, predominantly from those who would profess to knowing the game better than most.
Have we been particularly good? No but we've been good enough.
Can we win it? Highly unlikely but, other than Germany or Spain, there isn't a side I'd really fear.
Personally, I shall just enjoy the ride from this point on, we've already over achieved.
Mr Hodgson - You are welcome to serve me my words, along with a large slice of humble pie. Well done, sir.



Friday, 15 June 2012

Death or Glory?

So far this tournament has been really good, with some excellent games. Particularly Wednesday's Group B games and last night between Italy and Croatia. Italy looked to be cruising but then just didn't pick up when necessary. They will now be forced to really push against Ireland, scoring at least 3, to secure 5 points and hope that Spain can get past Croatia. If Italy win then Spain and Croatia draw it will all come down to goal difference.
Small green available right now on my Italy back but I'm hopeful of being able to trade out during the games. 

The markets are not confident of an England win tonight but, after doing the sums, I can't see a scenario where England cannot go for the win. 
A french win in the early game and we need the win to move ahead of Ukraine, who we then play, no doubt parking the bus...
A draw in the early game and we need the win to go ahead of France, who would be confident of three points against Sweden, leaving us to get a win from the final game against Ukraine. 
A Ukraine win in the early game and we are fighting against France, who would have that easier game against Sweden, for one remaining spot. 
So, what does this mean from a trading perspective? For me it means England are too big at 2.26, it also means that Over 2.5 goals is too big at 2.24, as Sweden are forced to push. The Overs trade will almost be cover for the England back, as it's likely we will park the bus if we go 1-0 up. Of course, if we win 3-0 or 2-1 - Double Bubble. 

Come what may, FFS England, make me proud. 

Stay green. 

Monday, 11 June 2012

Pass the Dutch...

Confidence was not that high in the Dutch getting through the groups but I didn't expect them to falter so early. My hope was to lay them if they got through, which they still might, but, unless they put together two outstanding performances against Germany and Portugal, their price will not be as attractive. Plus, if they got a result against those two, I'd have to think twice about laying them anyway. So, in short, that's out the window.
The O2.5 in that game had tempted me, it didn't pan out very well and I ended with just short of scratch.

I had taken 2-1 in the Germany v Portugal game with the intention of scalping 0-0 to leave a free trade and/or adding some scores earlyish in the game. After the shock defeat of the dutch, understandably, Portugal played for the draw, which they almost got. Their being defensive made it easier to scalp 0-0 which I continued to do throughout the first half, putting a nice green across CS.
Apparently there has been some quiet money for Portugal, I have no idea why. They have a handful of decent players but there are much better middling sides in this tournament, who were available at better prices. Italy being a good example. Available at 18's on Friday (taken), they are now 13.5 and still look value for it. Albeit Spain did not look great last night, Italy looked confident and assured.
After becoming a Champions League winner and scoring the goal that took them to the final, one may have hoped the real Fernando Torres had returned. Where has the deft touch, turn of foot and vision gone?

On to tonight. I've backed both Sweden and Ukraine to finish bottom of Group D so, ideally, France and England will draw 1-1 and Sweden will draw 0-0 with Ukraine.
My feeling is England should be happy with that result. The French are good, better than assumed IMO.
I have no angle on either game and will look for in-play opportunities.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 9 June 2012

Cracking start

So many were concerned there may not be very many goals in the opening games of this tournament, the 0-0 price for the opening game was 7.0, some of us were a little more optimistic.
Poland were fast from the blocks and got their deserved opener, when the Greek player (his name is too difficult even to type), was sent off, Poland's price plummeted to 1.15 and I greened, leaving the 1-1 cover in. 
Not long after Poland went ahead I backed U2.5 and took cover on 2-1. This looked comfortable until the Greek red card but I was still confident, particularly after the Greeks then missed a penalty.
Two very nice trades to begin the tournament and, even though there wasn't much quality about, the opening game was a decent spectacle to watch. The second game was rife with quality and the Russians looked very good. Arshavin was particularly good to watch and his incisive ball for the second was fantastic. By the time I thought about entering a trade the opportunity had passed.

Tonight should see both Holland and Germany make their mark on the tournament. 
Over 2.5 in the Holland v Denmark game looks a little high for me, I'll be taking that on in-play.
Germany v Portugal has some potential. I took some of the 2-1 last night, will scalp 0-0 from KO and add some scores in the second half if necessary. 

A great start to a tournament that, only being two games old, is already hinting at being really great. 

Stay green. 





Friday, 8 June 2012

Let the fun begin

I'm in a really good mood today, for a couple of reasons. As you know, tonight sees the beginning of Euro2012. The bi-annual abyss, between the World Cup and Euro, is always miserable from a sporting perspective so, when either tournament is on, like most, I get very excited.
Weirdly, I'm actually more excited about being excited. After ending trading as a profession, I had a real fear my passion for football my have waned and that I may wish to give it a wide berth for a while. 
Rarely has my trading software been opened these last few weeks and my initial thought was I hadn't missed trading at all. But when I woke this morning, there were pangs of the same kind of excitement I used to feel when I first began trading. Lying in bed, trawling through the markets on iBetMate, (brilliant app), and looking for the value trade. There's no inkling to return to full time, I'm just really pleased that I can still enjoy trading and football as pass times. 

Unsurprisingly, England have drifted. This, despite the two friendly wins. Very pleased I managed to get all my backs out for scratch. 
Though I backed Holland in the World Cup, they don't look like winners to me and I'll be laying them should they qualify from the group. 
I don't expect them to win but Italy look big at 18's. I'll be taking that and looking to get around 10's after they qualify. 
At time of writing I am going through the markets and have come across Rock Bottom, the team that will finish bottom of each individual group. Let me state, I have just called Betfair to confirm this as I can't believe the prices, Ukraine are currently 2.98 to finish bottom and Sweden are 2.74. Dutching the two has to be free money IMO, I'm on at the prices stated. 

If I can I'll put up my trades each day throughout the competition.

Tonight I'm backing Poland with cover on 1-1.

Whatever you trade, stay green. 

Thursday, 24 May 2012

...of elaborate plans, of everything that stands...

...this is the end.

Today is my last post as a professional Sports Trader.

Recently, I have had cause to question this vocation. I'm good at it, not great but good. I understand it and I certainly have the skills, mindset and ability to be continuously successful at it yet, when asking myself if I would be happy to be doing this in ten or twenty years time, I was unable to answer in the positive. This then led to the fear of procrastination, finding myself in a decade or two still trading and wishing I hadn't been and, rather profoundly, a fear of not contributing. So, I'm left asking what would I want to be doing? Right now, the answer is, I don't know. But my next endeavour will be to find out, and that, as it always has done, is the bit that excites me the most. Trading will still be something I enjoy but, predominantly, it will be in addition to watching a sporting event rather than the over-riding interest.

During this interim, transitional period, it's my intention to write an e-book on Sports Trading. There are many strategies and systems punted around but there is very little available to help the novice trader and, as this blog has always tried to do, I'd like the book to stop anyone falling into the same pitfalls as I did.

It's been a fantastic ride these last three years. I've met some great people, great characters and good friends. I would never put anyone off Sports Trading for a living, it has a great many rewards.
Thanks to any/everyone for taking the time to read my random blithering and for the interactions too.

Remember, whatever you want to achieve - Defeat is temporary, giving up is permanent.

Stay green.

Wednesday, 2 May 2012

...treat those two impostors the same...

For many years I have been playing a regular card game down in Fulham. It's actually not that regular anymore as we have all grown up and have children and responsibilities etc. Whenever this game takes place I have an opportunity to get together with a very good friend, for a few beers, before the game. Now, this particular friend happens to be the cleverest person I know. Which makes him very funny and witty, slightly obnoxious at times but more than forgive-ably so. He is also enormously intuitive and, literally every time we meet, gives me something new to think about, more often than not to do with trading.
I was voicing, not for the first time, just how lucky I am to be able to trade for a living and what the benefits of such a vocation are and how the idea of, once more, being an automaton within industry would turn me to stone. A specific point was, even though I am already doing very well, there is a significant chance that my skills and earning potential would/could increase greatly over time. Here is where the left field, sling shot came in -

Him "Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the ideal scenario one where you treat both wins and losses the same? That you have no emotional response to either? Based on your edge ensuring the number and size of wins out-weighs the number and size of losses?"

Me "Urr, Yeh."

Him "Hmm. Where, then, is the fun in that? If you have no emotional response to the results of your continuous, in-numerous, daily actions are you not set to become an automaton?"

The twat beat me at Scrabble as well.

Stay green.

Monday, 30 April 2012

When will the FA ever learn?

I am truly, genuinely staggered and desperately disappointed to wake up to the news that the hapless, hopeless Roy Hodgson is to become the next England manager.
Please, someone show me examples of his inspirational leadership, his highly developed tactical knowledge, his ability to capture a dressing room, his confidence in handling big players in a big team. Nothing on his CV suggests how he could even figure in the thinking of those responsible for finding a new manager. Which only adds more weight to the argument that the FA is too far removed.
Psycho wants the job but is grown up enough to say he is not ready yet. Harry is the right man for the job, on paper, but I'm not sure if he is showing allegiance to his club or concealing a fear.
I ask just once to see my national team win a tournament, yet again the FA have pissed on that fire.
I have been backing England to go close this summer, this morning I shall be closing all positions, before the price disappears.
It goes almost without saying, I'd be very happy to have Mr. Hodgson prove me wrong, but I'm more likely to lay England now than back them.

Thursday, 26 April 2012

I am a Chelsea fan after all

For many years I was a very proud Chelsea fan. Regularly at the Bridge, living the highs and lows. That enthusiasm waned after I became so involved in the beautiful game from a statistical and analytical perspective. My love for Chelsea alone dissipated and a love for the game as a whole, to see it played well and properly replaced it. That was, I thought, until Tuesday night. When Fernando Torres picked up the ball and went forward to score, I was out of my seat, screaming at the box for him to right all wrongs. When he scored, I was elated, jumping and dancing around the room. Mrs Lambretta, laughing, said she hadn't seen me so excited since, she recalled, "that game we watched when we were in Sweden in 2005". That game? Chelsea v Barcelona 2nd leg. Chelsea won 5-4 on agg. Both were ties that will never be forgotten, nor should they but Tuesday's was truly legendary. 
Ask me now, I'll tell you I support Chelsea. Hideously, this fever has already consumed me, I am anxious and concerned about how the fark we are going to beat Munchen in their own back yard...

It's been an up and down April. Football has been stable throughout the month but I had a big blip with the nags mid month. Over confidence and too much liability in the market led to the inevitable but I've made changes to my set up and, since it happened, I've noticed a real change in my mind set. The losses have been recovered and I'm optimistic about how this month will end and the summer's potential. Yet another lesson learnt.

A mate of mine used to record a very good poker podcast, he always maintained he would stop doing so when, for whatever reason, it was no longer fun to do so. On that basis, I took a break from posting. It's clear now it is something I really enjoy doing. Writing this blog has numerous benefits for me but ultimately just one objective, that is to help anyone who wishes to make a success of sports trading, in any way I can. It has been the most enormously tough, humbling, humiliating, pride swallowing endeavour to get to the stage I am at and, in truth, I am a long way from the, if there is such a thing, finished article. But my fundamental reason for writing this blog is to stop, if possible, anyone falling into the same pitfalls I did. Should this blog ever read in anything other than a humourous, modest and helpful way, I would be grateful if you told me. 

It's not in my usual MO to plug services on this blog, unless I think they are any good. A friend and extremely  talented trader has just launched a new service thesportstradingacademy.co.uk I would be very surprised if you took the £10 trial and were disappointed. I assure you, I am not on a cut. 

No trades today but a very good friend works for Gefle IF, so I'm having a tenner on them.

Stay green.


 

Thursday, 12 April 2012

Greed - The novice trader's downfall.

Had a really interesting conversation yesterday about the effect of greed on the novice trader. I, like most, thought I had found the golden goose when I happened upon sorts trading. Plans were made for what the vast, untold riches would be spent on etc. Then, of course, reality came calling to give me the real picture. Undeterred, I persevered in the hope that those riches, or something close to them, would eventually be available. I've posted before about how lucky I was in having the funds and support in order to continue, the majority do not.
I've also posted about how, if I had to start all over again, I would go about it. What many, me included, try and do is make the same amounts they hear others are making or what they see in videos. Yes, it is possible to make more than you did/do in your 9 - 5, but the real benefits lie in your quality of life - Being your own boss, working your own hours, spending time with significant other and/or kids, having the ability to do what you want, when you want. Ask yourself this, if you were paid as much as you earn/earned in your 9-5 but with all the benefits listed above, would you do it? Of course you would. So, don't push or force yourself to earn what you think you should be earning through trading, strive to make what you do already. Once you've achieved that and have all the benefits that come with it, then you can allocate time to improving your income.

Didn't get involved with any of last night's matches. They looked dodgy and proved to be so, mostly. I knew Utd would have one slip against a relegation troubled side. Sadly it came too late for my Winners Market lay... Nothing today.

The Grand National - It is against my betting policy to back at short odds in the National, especially as it should be 8-1 the field just to get round, but I like Giles Cross. The others I like at bigger odds are Abbeyraney, Ballyvesey, Le Beau Bai.

Stay green.

Wednesday, 11 April 2012

Flat out

Funny where life takes you. Expecting a quiet, chocolate fuelled weekend, I found myself enjoying quail's eggs and "Fizz" on the lawn with Godfrey and Lady Judy, whilst the kids hunted eggs "in the grounds". Very nice it was too.

I downed tools last Thursday night and, despite the jam packed football card and plethora of racing, I didn't pick them up again until yesterday, which went well. I'm really happy we are now entering the flat season proper. Being much longer, the sticks races can and do hold more opportunities but I like the speed and force of action on the flat. Plus, with evening racing, there are more meetings.
Liverpool looked big last night but I wasn't confident enough to trade MO, so I plumped for 1-2, which came a bit soon but the red card ensured the price plummeted and 48% green should not be sniffed at.
Will look at tonight's card this morning and update later. I'll also have a trawl through the Grand National line up. You have to have a bet in the National, it's the law.

Stay green.

Wednesday, 4 April 2012

Ignore them at your peril

Since seeking and finding them back in 2009,  I have been a strong advocate of the UEFA Coefficient tables. Very often the market will not reflect the true standings of one European team against another in UEFA competitions. For once though, it seems they have it right.
Chelsea are currently 1.7 in the Match Odds market, how often would you get that? But, is it value? For me it's about right. The Coefficients have Benfica just two spots below Chelsea. The Blues are finding their feet in the season with RDM and John Terry pushing things forward and I do expect them to qualify, though they have taken just six from the last eleven at home. Benfica have taken six from their last twelve away, plus they have nothing to lose. Potentially it could be a great game but my starting scores will be 1-1, 2-0, 2-1.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_coefficient

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/tcoef2012.html

Cracking football at the Nou Camp last night. I was disappointed for Milan, for two reasons. They've played really well throughout the competition and I'd backed 2-2.
Pep had told the world that Milan would score. The two previous legs had finished 2-3 and 2-2 so, how the 2-2 last night could be 34's, 36's and then as big as 40's is beyond me. I removed my stake at 11.5 and took little bits out as the game went on. Very acceptable green.

Fell back into an old habit on the nags yesterday and paid the price. Doesn't matter how experienced you may or may not be... It's how we react to these errors that's important.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 2 April 2012

Congratulations to...

@gamblinggeek! The lucky winner of the Geat Betfair Trading Prize Bundle. Well done, Mike.

My sincere and genuine thanks to everyone who made a donation, particularly those who went to great lengths to do so. Also to all the service and software providers who donated such a huge and really valuable group of prizes. They all deserve another mention and if you haven't checked any of them out yet, you really should -

Bet Angel Pro http://www.betangel.com/
ZeroHype http://www.zerohype.co.uk/
Trade Shark Tennis http://www.tradesharktennis.com/
Bonus Bagging http://www.bonusbagging.co.uk/
Betting System Notes & Market Matcher http://www.bettingsystemnotes.com/
Pre Match Trading prematchtrading.com
Trading Football tradingfootball.eu

I received many donations from people not wishing to use JustGiving, not sure why but I would be interested to know..?

The weekend was brilliant for the nags but not so good on the footy. The Villa v Chelsea game looked to be going the right way. I was just about to green up on the 2-1 when Villa equalised, no point chasing it, ended with a very rare full loss. I added 2-0 at HT at Everton and ended with a half decent green there. QPR v Arsenal looked dodgy when QPR went ahead for the second time but I allowed it to run and scored the expected green on that. Unfortunately, Sunderland's miraculous draw at Man City sent my Winners Market lay of Utd into free fall. Laid at 1.4, I had to red up at 1.27. Managed to get a lump back on both yesterday's games.
Tonight, I'm laying U1.5 goals at Ewood Park.

Whatever you trade, say green.

Saturday, 31 March 2012

And the winner is...

Right. First things first. After Full Time this afternoon I shall be asking certain sporting celeb's, through Twitter, to assist in drawing the prize winner for the Great Betfair Trading Prize bundle. So, you have until now and 4.45pm to get your donation in and your name in the draw. Don't delay, all details are here http://thoughtsofafootballtrader.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/greatest-betfair-trading-prize-bundle.html

Very busy day today. I love the sticks but I'm really glad to see the return of the flat proper. It heralds the arrival of Summer.
Today's footballing picks -
Villa v Chelsea 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 0-2, 0-3
Everton v W Brom 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2
QPR v Arsenal. The Gunners have drawn just one of their last twelve away and QPR have drawn just two from the last twelve at home. LTD straight bet, but I'll look to cover 1-1 with some pre-match scalping.

Good luck in the draw, it's an amazing bundle of prizes that would help any trader, newbie or veteran. Plus every penny will help someone less fortunate.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 29 March 2012

How much is enough?

Further to the last post, I received two emails asking about size of starting bank. Good question.
In the beginning, I allocated X amount to start my trading journey with and tried to work on the basis of adding 3% per day to double up within a month. All a bit pointless really, when you consider I had to learn to trade first.  Often we read about traders who see 5% of bank as an acceptable loss on a trade but what percentage of bank is being used to put that 5% in jeopardy?
I don't carry a large trading bank, there doesn't seem much point having more in your account than you need to trade with, unless you are expecting to have numerous losses, which is a whole other psychology question.
My month begins with X, ends with Y and the difference is withdrawn. I work to set stakes and liabilities so, at the start of the month, 90% of my trades will have the vast majority of my trading bank in the market. I do have reserves should I ever need to reload the bank but otherwise what's in there will do.
If you allocate a grand to start trading with but have no intention of using all of it, put back in your bank account whatever you don't expect to use. There may not be much but it will get some interest, plus it will ensure there is no temptation to over trade, over stake or give rise to thoughts such as "It's okay, I've still £X00 left...".

The San Siro was alive last night and, though a 0-0, it was still a very good game to watch. I had hoped to be laying HT 0-0 but after twenty minutes there had been just 3 SoT and a goal did not look forthcoming. I ended up dutching 0-0, 1-0 & 0-1 at HT. So, a nice green in the end.
None of tonight's fodder stands out. In-play for me.

Very grateful for the music suggestions, please keep them coming. Today I shall be mostly listening to...

The Tubeway Army - Replicas
The Best of Little Milton
Stereo MC's - Connected
The Buzzcocks - What do I get?
Springsteen - Darkness on the edge of town
Brainfreeze Breaks - DJ Shadow

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 27 March 2012

Keep on keeping on

I'm a very good Scrabble player, not great but very good. The reason I'm a very good Scrabble player is not because I studied the game or swallowed a dictionary, it's because I spent so much time playing against truly brilliant Scrabble players.
For many years a group of us would rent a cottage and, for the most part, we would play a lot of poker. Much of the down time from poker was spent in front of the fire playing the most excellent of word games. I lost every game, every game. But after some time I found that I could actually compete, then, playing the facebook version of the game, I actually beat one of the two truly brilliant players. I've never beaten him since, nor am I likely to again as he was unlikely to have been paying much attention when I did win, but I did win and am now Scrabbling force to be reckoned with.
What's my point? There are many aspects to each and every trader, sadly, so many of those who have become successful take pleasure in lauding their success in the faces of the countless many who are trying, and so few take time to help. I'm not qualified to be a mentor, nor would I want that pressure but, if I can do it, so can you. Being defeated is temporary, giving up makes it permanent.

I need some help. Sitting at my desk each day, for four+ hours, it doesn't take long to get through even the most extensive iTunes library. I'm desperate for some new tunes. If you could leave a comment with your fav album, that would be great.

Disappointed with Man U last night, they certainly did not look like a team driving home the dagger on their rivals. Still, they did give me some confidence in my Winners Market lay. I added 1-0 at HT for a decent green.
Don't fancy anything from today's card. Will go in-play on the televised games.

Whatever you trade, stay green

Remaining nameless on both sides, this post was inspired by a Twitter conversation but the message is for everyone who wants to make a success of sports trading.

Monday, 26 March 2012

Manchester Divided

Who's it going to be? I'm siding with United, for two reasons. They have the depth of experience when it comes to the final battle and they have a very favourable fixture list. However, for me, the market looks out of sync with the facts - Only four goals separate these two. Whilst United have a better run in, the only real difference in the level of team they each shall face is City being away to Arsenal, who will be keen to secure third place from Spurs. They still have to play each other, of course. That game being at the Etihad is a massive plus for City. And it would be no surprise if that game were the decider. We could expect the title to be won by the time City face Newcastle.
I fully expect Fulham to be brushed aside tonight, (2-0, 2-1, 3-0 to start with), but Utd then face three relegation scrappers, two are at OT, but it would be no surprise to see one of them get a point.
In truth, the title is now Utd's to lose but, at 1.42, they are too cheap for me. I'll be laying them after tonight's game, possibly even during, expecting them to trade a decent amount higher before they travel across town for the derby game.

Decent weekend of trading - Was probably too tired to trade nags effectively on Saturday. A day of peaks and toughs which, thankfully, ended with a green.
Football wise it was text book stuff. The lay of Spurs with 0-1 was never in danger. Sunderland v QPR looked to be going perfectly until the red card. 3-0 was covered and I was lucky to have greened up on 65 minutes, for around 45%. LTD at Stoke with 1-1 ended scratch.

Just the Man Utd game for today.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Friday, 23 March 2012

Wednesday results - Saturday's picks

Time is a very precious commodity in the Lambretta household right now, blog posting is suffering as a consequence.

For the most part, Wednesday's trades went very well. The dripped draw lay at QPR could not have been better. The back of City with 1-1 cover was perfect and, though the goal came from Stoke, the draw lay at WHL, came good too. The only one that really let me down was Everton v Arsenal. I took out half stake after the first then removed the rest after Drenthe had his perfectly good goal disallowed. For some reason, quite often, a disallowed goal will have an effect on the scoring possibility within a game, hence my removing stake. Just above scratch there.

Only three so far from tomorrow's card. Spurs have not beaten Chelsea at home for more than 20 years and, it's fair to say, Chelsea's form has improved. I'll be laying Spurs with trading cover on 0-1. 
Sunderland seem to be OK at home and against QPR, buoyed by their victory over Liverpool, they should be able to grab a point at worst. 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1,2-2. 
The currently available prices for City away at Stoke are too good to leave. LTD with cover on 1-1.

Have a great weekend. 

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 21 March 2012

Is there a definitive answer?

Though limping to its end, the re-furb of Lambretta Towers continues. This morning our plumber asked me what I did for a living. It's so difficult to explain sports trading at length but even to try and give a quick, "I can't be bothered to tell you" type answer will inevitably lead to having to explain at length anyway, then the recipient of the answer still doesn't have a farking clue what you're talking about. My answer to our plumber was "the percentage chance of something happening within a sporting event can be bought and sold like any other commodity". He's a nice guy and far from stupid but his blank expression and mono syllabic response was confirmation of yet another explanation gone over the head.
What we do is the very nucleus of commerce - we buy something for X and sell it for Y, ideally making a profit somewhere in-between. So why is it so difficult for those outside the trading world to understand? Please, someone, if there is an answer or response you use that is both quick and full, let me have it.

Blackburn looked decent last night. Interesting to read a smattering of a superlatives regarding Steve Kean this morning. Now 6 points north of the drop, Blackburn are likely to be safe but is it because Kean has done his job or because Messers McCarthy, Martinez and Hughes have not done theirs?
I traded Blackburn v Sunderland, 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2. Expecting a decent game with goals from both sides, Sunderland were lackluster and never looked like scoring from the off. I started scalping 0-0 from around 20 minutes and greened up to leave free bets. I let it run. I've drawn the conclusion that Martin O'Neill is a mid table manager at best and never likely to win anymore silverware unless he returns to Scotland.

Today's card is decent and there looks to be some value too. Chelsea have a decent record away to City but I like City at the currently available 1.95, with cover on the generous 8.4 for 1-1.
Spurs v Stoke is a stand out draw lay for me, despite the absence of Adebayor and King. Though the question of their mental state, after Saturday, might be worth asking.
 A total of 17 goals have been scored in the last four of the Everton v Arsenal fixture. Everton are without their strongest midfielders and the Over 2.5 price of 2.04 has to be traded for me.
Of the last 24 games played, home and away, between them QPR and Liverpool have just four draws. 1-0 is available at 15's, with trading cover there, I shall be drip laying the draw and scalping 0-0.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

BTW - There are just 10 days left to get your donation in and get you name down for this amazing bundle of prizes

Sunday, 18 March 2012

The calm after the storm

Cheltenham is over for another year. Not convinced it will go down as one of the greatest but it was good, both from a racing fan and trading perspective. The week ended very well and, surprisingly, the liquidity continued into most of yesterday. 
In addition to the bank growing nicely over the four days, many lessons were learnt. Most poignant would be forgetting about money and simply trading what's in front of me. Usually I have a target set for the day/week/month, which will keep me on track. But, more recently, I have found myself forcing the trade and getting involved when really the opportunities are not there. So, last week I turned off the account balance feature of AGT and just traded. The results are evident and I shall continue in this vain, not least because I find I am a great deal more relaxed and enjoying the action even more. From four cards traded yesterday, only one race finished with a red. 
Didn't like yesterday's football card at all. I did get involved with Fulham v Swansea, backing 1-0 and 2-1 and also laying Under 1.5, I ended with a scratch.
Today isn't that much better and, should I get the time away from Mother's Day, I'll focus on in-play. The one definite trade I shall be taking is LTD at Wolves, above my normal draw odds but I'll be dutching 1-1 & 2-2, currently available at very decent numbers and leaving the opportunity for a very decent green. 

I'm dabbling in a little dobbing on the dobbins - I've picked these out to trade 30% lower than SP
Well Green 1.45pm
Knapp Bridge Boy 2.15pm
Simonside 3.30pm
Etxalar 4.00pm

Whatever you trade, stay green and send Fabrice some love. Come on brother, you can do it. 











Wednesday, 14 March 2012

"Oh, I wish it could be Cheltenham everyday"

An amazing start to the festival.
This is my first year trading Cheltenham and the difference in the markets is incredible. The ability to open an in-running trade without any fear of the market moving against you is astonishing.
Today I'll be increasing stakes again and, rather than trying to trade the other meetings in-running too, I'll use them to practice my pre race trading.
I'm not a betting man anymore, the fact I would've been on Hurricane Fly suggests why, and yet I still had this enormous sense of anticipation and excitement all through yesterday morning. I even baked cakes with Mrs. Lambretta just to kill some time, and to get the mixture bowl after, obviously. A rare round of golf this morning, to fill the void.

There seemed to be a large number of people, on Twitter, who were laying Liverpool last night. They haven't been great at home this season but laying them was not an option for me. It's always cheaper to take scores against a side than lay them outright. If you're prepared to lose X on a straight lay, put that same amount into the Correct Score market and you're likely to see a much safer and better value return.

Only nags for me today. Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 10 March 2012

In like a lion, out like a lamb.

March always holds such promise. The festival is and always has been fantastic, though I don't go anymore. Like Royal Ascot and Epsom, Cheltenham used to be great occasion to attend but the drunken hoards, whose racing knowledge and appreciation could sit comfortably on the head of a pin, have put paid to that. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for attracting new blood into the sport, but the once a year beer monsters don't do the sport of kings any credit.

I'm full of anticipation for next week. Not least as it will be my first Cheltenham as a full time nag trader.

Thanks to Peter Webb's newsletter, I'm a little bit wiser as to what to expect from the markets and his description suggests, for a pre race rookie like me, I'm better off sticking with in-running.


The volume in next week's markets should mean I can comfortably increase stakes and I want to make sure I've got a good size bank to do so. This week's markets have been understandably thin, but the bank has built up nicely and today's focus will be on adding to that through the nag cards. Particularly as today's footy card is full of potential pit falls.


Bolton v QPR - Both entirely unpredictable but likely to have decent in-play opps.

Villa v Fulham - Urrr...No.

Chelsea v Stoke - With RDM at the helm, normal service should be resumed. 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 to start with.

Sunderland v Liverpool - Sunderland will be buoyed by their Cup win against Arsenal but I can't see 'pool losing. 1-0, 1-1, 0-2, 2-2.

Wolves v Backburn - No.

Everton v Spurs - I like this one. Should be a good game. Everton are putting together a nice little run and will want to continue. Spurs should have a near full squad. There have been a couple of 0-0's but I like Over 2.5 in this. Plus there should be some great in-play opps.


Don't forget the charity trading raffle - Bag a massive bundle of trading goodies right here
Please, please make sure you leave your name or Twitter username. Thanks.



Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 8 March 2012

I've run out of expletives...

...to lambast Betfair with. Here we are again, same time as last year, with a Betfair outage just before Cheltenham. The lack of stability and/or a solution to this ridiculous and unbelievably continuing situation stinks of an attitude of "we don't give a fuck, about users or Betdaq", because if they did, these outages would never happen.
I was really looking forward to today's trading. It's been a good week and the hope was that would continue. How confident am I likely to feel, should these idiots actually manage to get the site up and running again? It remains the necessary evil.
No wonder our friends in Ireland chose the ecclesiastical purple as their brand colour, soon they shall become holy.

After a break, not really planned, from LTD, I made a return to it this week. The three games I picked, because they got through my filters, were Reading, Southampton and West Ham. Interesting to note that of these only one actually had the home favourite scoring first, before the dreaded 70 minute mark. Southampton  left it until 74 minutes and West Ham actually went 0-1 down to Watford. I still made a profit on all games but only because I scalped where necessary. I'll stick to the dutching for now, it's a damn sight less work.

Not a big fan of tonight's card but 2-0, 2-1 & 3-0 look value at OT.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

PS. Betfair has just come back online.

Wednesday, 7 March 2012

If you always do what you've always done...

...you'll always get what you've always got.

I like this old adage. It's one of those that keeps me motivated to seek the new and to overcome obstacles.
It might be, and I emphasize might, that I may have overcome another hurdle.
Recently I joined another pre race horse trading service. A service that seemed to offer something a little different and a little more involved than the myriad others available. Essentially, the service provider acts as a mentor. Regular interaction with critical and constructive feedback, I have sent a video which my mentor has then watched, pin pointed my weaknesses and given numerous pointers to avoid the same pit falls, I shall do the same again later this week. Now, had you asked me yesterday morning how much this new service had given me, I may have said relatively little, I've only been using it for a week but, yesterday afternoon, I set up my desk to have a Geek's Toy pre race set up on one PC and an in-running Geek's set up on the other, flicking to the latter at the official off time. It was a good day. Confident and comfortable, I really enjoyed my in-running trading, which was evident in the Camtasia video I watched at the end of each day, an exercise I do to eradicate silly errors.
Camtasia is not installed on the machine that had the pre race set up so, whilst I was sure the pre race trading had gone fairly well, I didn't really know how well, until I looked at the afternoon's P&L on that account.
Of 17 races, 14 were traded to a profit and the day ended only £0.24p short of my 3% of bank target. I am excited for today's card...

Yesterday's footy was decent. I posted West Ham for some strange reason but meant Reading, which went as expected. I was scalping 0-0 on that and Southampton to cover, but the Saints went ahead on 74 minutes. A nice green on both. The Benfica dutch was set & go and returned a very nice green.
The only downside on the night was a HT 0-0 lay at Birmingham, which didn't come off. A second half lay of 0-0 got back that red.
Not keen on either of the CL games or the FA Cup replay. I shall be LTD at West Ham today.

I'd like to thank everyone who has supported the Betfair Trading Charity Raffle so far, not just for donations but also for including on blog posts, retweets and Facebook etc. All details are here. You could win some fantastic trading related prizes.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 6 March 2012

LTD - a slight return

Haven't had chance to round up the weekend, which was a little hit and miss.
Didn't really like the look of anything pre KO on Saturday. The card was spurious and there was nothing solid about it. Somewhat rare, I hadn't opened any trades at all by 3.45pm. On going through the stats, Stoke looked a decent shout for drip laying 0-0, 5 lays matched before Stoke got the winner. 
Even though the stats did not read as well as they normally need to for me to open, I did the same at WBA. Around 70 minutes I was considering closing for a small red but WBA had 5 SoT's to Chelsea's 2 (good riddance to bad rubbish) and I left the remaining lays in, 8 matched by the time WBA scored. So a pretty decent day, despite the lack of trading. 
Sunday was not dissimilar. Wasn't around for anything other than Spurs v Man U, for which I tweeted 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2 but, after seeing the absence of Bale, Parker and VDV, I decided to try in-play. Then ended up doing nothing. It was a very odd game. Spurs were unlucky to go behind but those absences were very telling. 
So, an unusually quiet weekend that ended with a decent green.

Tonight I'm going back to LTD. I can't get concrete scores in my head but both West Ham and Southampton look good shouts for going ahead and the Draw prices look value.
Benfica v Zenit should be a formality really, I'm going for 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0

I've been really surprised by the lack of take up on the charity prize raffle. One lucky winner can scoop £900 worth of trading tools and services, all for just a £10 donation. All the details are here, please take another look. Thanks.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 5 March 2012

The great Betfair trading charity raffle - Part II

It seems some people were a little confused over the raffle concept in my last post, so I'm writing it again in simpler terms here -
Below is a massive list of, Betfair trading related, prizes. One lucky winner will scoop all of them! In order to give yourself a chance of being that lucky winner, all you have to do is donate £10 to my charity bike ride fund for Doctors of the World. You can do so here http://www.justgiving.com/jonmurphy or by clicking Donate on the right of this post. Make sure you leave your full name or Twitter username, as anonymous donations cannot be identified. The winner will be drawn at random on March 31st.

Remember, not only does your donation give you a chance to win but it will also go towards securing the future of someone in a war torn, poverty or disaster stricken area.
Here's the amazing list of prizes -

Zero Hype - 3 months subscription -
The team at Zero Hype are dedicated to helping you become a better, more profitable trader. Their services and customer interaction is exceptional.

ZH Subscribe - A football trade and lay bet service
ZH Ratings - A nag service which also includes the high strike rate Lay of the Day
ZH High Rollers - A very specific nag laying service with a very high strike rate

Pre Match Trading - 3 months subscription
Put together by the enigmatic Emo, this incredible tool can identify price anomalies in the market, allowing you to enter, then wait for the market to correct itself. Take the green, use it as cover in a trade or take it in-play. A must for any football trader. 

Bet Angel Pro - 12 months software subscription.
By far the best, paid for, Betfair trading application on the market. Incorporating Soccer Mystic and Tennis trader price predicition tools. Using BAPro very quickly led to my having a far greater understanding of the markets and how they work.

Trade Shark Tennis - Lifetime membership.
This service has recently won two awards and they are well deserved. You will receive a copy of an e-book with enormously detailed strategy, plus lifetime access to a members only area giving you the trading tips for that day. This is the best tennis trading service and community out there.

Horse Racing Traders - Lifetime membership 
It is no exaggeration for me to say this service totally transformed my P&L. I had given up on nag trading but thought, when I came across this service, I would give it one last try, I now consider myself a pro nag trader... The service had been closed to protect certain aspects within but I managed to persuade the provider to allow just one more member.

Bonus Bagging - Lifetime membership 
I personally made more than £600 using this bank builder, and I didn't take up all the offers. It's free money!

BSN is the football traders database. An exceptionally handy tool that allows you to store your strategies in simple form and also assists in how you plan the trade, entry and exit points etc. It also comes with 12 football trading strategies built in, so you can get cracking straight away. To make things even easier than that, you also get access to Market Matcher, a trade finding tool that identifies which of the twelve strategies to implement in a game. Couldn't be easier. 

TradingFootball.eu - 6 month subscription.
The best online trading community. You are guaranteed to learn from these guys and their members. They now have a new Nag trading room too. Newbie or veteran this is a great service to be part of.

If you signed up to these services individually, it would set you back nearly £900.

There will also be two runner up prizes. Go on, give it a shot. www.justgiving.com/jonmurphy

Stay green. 

Saturday, 3 March 2012

The greatest Betfair trading prize bundle you're ever likely to see, and it's all for charity.

Let me get this bit out of the way first, then you can get to the really good bit.
In September, I'm cycling from London to Paris, in aid of Doctors of the World. A fantastic charity who do some really incredible work in war torn, poverty and disaster stricken areas. 
My target is to raise £1400, which doesn't sound like much, but this amount can help literally thousands of women and children. 
In order to reach and hopefully exceed this target, I contacted all the Betfair trading services and software providers I have used and asked them to donate prizes to help the cause. Each of them has been enormously generous, thanks to which, there is now a massive bundle of prizes to be raffled through this blog. There are a couple of runner up prizes but one lucky winner will scoop everything you see listed below...
(The opinions that accompany each prize listing are my own, but I have paid for and continue to profit from using each and every one of these tools, I therefore feel qualified to give that opinion).

TradingFootball.eu - 6 month subscription.
The best online trading community. You are guaranteed to learn from these guys and their members. They now have a new Nag trading room too. Newbie or veteran this is a great service to be part of.

Zero Hype - 3 months subscription -
The team at Zero Hype are dedicated to helping you become a better, more profitable trader. Their services and customer interaction is exceptional.
ZH Subscribe - A football trade and lay bet service
ZH Ratings - A nag service which also includes the high strike rate Lay of the Day
ZH High Rollers - A very specific nag laying service with a very high strike rate

Pre Match Trading - 3 months subscription
Put together by the enigmatic Emo, this incredible tool can identify price anomalies in the market, allowing you to enter, then wait for the market to correct itself. Take the green, use it as cover in a trade or take it in-play. A must for any football trader. 

Bet Angel Pro - 12 months software subscription.
By far the best, paid for, Betfair trading application on the market. Incorporating Soccer Mystic and Tennis trader price predicition tools. Using BAPro very quickly led to my having a far greater understanding of the markets and how they work.

Trade Shark Tennis - Lifetime membership.
This service has recently won two awards and they are well deserved. You will receive a copy of an e-book with enormously detailed strategy, plus lifetime access to a members only area giving you the trading tips for that day. This is the best tennis trading service and community out there.

Horse Racing Traders - Lifetime membership 
It is no exaggeration for me to say this service totally transformed my P&L. I had given up on nag trading but thought, when I came across this service, I would give it one last try, I now consider myself a pro nag trader... The service had been closed to protect certain aspects within but I managed to persuade the provider to allow just one more member.

Bonus Bagging - Lifetime membership 
I personally made more than £600 using this bank builder, and I didn't take up all the offers. It's free money!

BSN is the football traders database. An exceptionally handy tool that allows you to store your strategies in simple form and also assists in how you plan the trade, entry and exit points etc. It also comes with 12 football trading strategies built in, so you can get cracking straight away. To make things even easier than that, you also get access to Market Matcher, a trade finding tool that identifies which of the twelve strategies to implement in a game. Couldn't be easier. 

If you signed up to these services individually, it would set you back nearly £900.

So, how do you get your hands on this incredible set of prizes? Simple. Go to my JustGiving/jonmurphy page or click on the JustGiving button above, donate £10, or more, make sure you enter your full name or Twitter name and that's it. The winner and runners up will be drawn at random, hopefully by someone impressive from the world of sport, on March 31st. 
Remember, your £10 will not just give you the chance to win these amazing prizes, it will also go an awful long way to securing someone's future. 

Stay green and stay lucky. 

Lambretta. 











Monday, 27 February 2012

Keep 'em peeled

Snowed under this week. The second meeting pertaining to my potential return to the corporate world takes place on Thursday and I need to do lots of research to make that meeting worthwhile, and to help any decision process. Plus, with it being an international week of footy, it gives the opportunity to catch up on the snagging list of the Lambretta Towers re-furb.

The title for this post comes from my intention to have a blind auction on this site, starting later this week. The auction lot is a massive bundle of Betfair trading subscriptions, memberships and software. All kindly donated by the service providers, to raise money for Doctors of the World. A charity very close to my heart. So, as the title suggests...

Decent weekend. Toon let themselves down but 2-2 cover was taken cheaply. I posted QPR v Sunderland but, of course, I meant WBA. Sunderland too, let themselves down. Small red.
The Carling Cup made up for the lack of profit though. A lay of Liverpool at KO, greened after the goal. Followed by a Lay of Cardiff, who were fantastic and very unlucky losers.

Nothing today. Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 23 February 2012

Yet another nag endeavour

Such is my confidence with trading nags in-running, the decision was made to try my hand at trading pre race again. There was no intention to just go in blindly and see how I got on, that type of thinking has long been left behind. My objective then, was to discover a service that might be able to give me what had been lacking before. Pretty much every search term you can think of was typed into Google but only the usual suspects ever came up. By chance, (and I'm beginning to think chance doesn't exist), I came across a service that offered mentoring and a tailored solution based around what together, that being the service provider and I, would discover to be my weaknesses. Very similar to horseracingtraders.com, this service offers very few memberships, in order to ensure the right level of focus for the members, which I always find reassuring.
My first task is to record an afternoon of pre race trading and send that video to the service provider, so he is able to either confirm or deny what I believe my weaknesses to be and no doubt add to the list.
I'm already encouraged. Though the service seems only to be two or three months old and the video library on offer is currently very small, I have to say it's very good in detail and, were I trading today, I should be confident of being just ever so slightly better than I was before watching those videos.
As always, my progress or lack of it will be detailed here.

There won't be any trading today of any sort as tonight, finally, I get to enjoy my charity auction win in The Executive Club of Old Trafford. It was my hope that Ajax would put up a better fight at home, so tonight's game would offer some end to end action but, I fear, Fergie may put out half a side and coast through. I'm sure it will still be very enjoyable.

Last night was okay. The U4.5 lay at City came good, mainly thanks to the very early goal, which kept the price fairly high. I had small liabilities, took a little cover, then greened up after the fourth.
After dutching Bayern win scores, I simply backed 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 at HT for scratch, which is what I ended with.

Whatever you trade stay green.

Wednesday, 22 February 2012

A-V-B, F-R-O!

As an ex, long term, Chelsea fan I find it staggering that Roman has allowed Villash Boash to remain in the post. Jose Mourinho, the true father of Chelsea Football Club, was pushed out despite enormous success. And further managers have had short lived Chelsea careers for doing a damn sight better than this hapless incumbant.
Chelsea not only failed to get past Birmingham at home, they actually went 0-1 down to them. They did not look strong last night, their fortuitous goal was against the run of play and not one member of the side looked confident. It must be said that, other than leaving out Ashley Cole, who came on early anyway, I do not disagree with AVB's team selection. It's not the players on the field that are causing the problem, it's the collective lack of belief and confidence in the manager himself.

Despite the number of goals in Napoli, it was still a good night for trading. Real Madrid did just enough, as expected. I missed the first goal but scalped the 0-1 down for a decent green. I also missed the chance to enter the low score dutch in Napoli, which was a blessing, but a Chelsea lay was nailed on after their goal.

Will likely go in-play on most tonight but City v Porto... Porto love to go forward, have nothing to lose and City, as we know, are very good at home. Between them they have an avg of 4.08 goals Home and Away. At 1.19, I'll be laying U4.5 goals.
Basel v Bayern - Something around 0-2, 1-2, 0-3.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 21 February 2012

Any dutch in the Champions League?

Of course there are no dutch teams in the CL but there is some value in dutching the front three, possibly even the front four. The likelihood of one of these teams ending up in the final against Basel, Benfica or APOEL, is pretty remote. So, we can be fairly confident that at least two of the four will go through. Of course, there shouldn't really be any real danger of losing money, as each individual team can be laid in the Match Odds market in the individual games that lead up to the final, it's likely to be cheap too.

Tonight's games don't hold much promise by way of classics in the making. Real are likely to just do enough and Napoli have a great home record in the league and an equally good one against English sides in Europe, plus Chelsea are shit. I'll be looking to trade CSKA v Real in-play. Napoli v Chelsea is all about dutching the low scores, though at 8.4 and 13.5 respectively, 1-0 and 2-0 might be value.
Currently available at 11.'s (!), 2-1 looks value for trading in-play at Blackpool.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Friday, 17 February 2012

Indefatigable. Not!

Baby drain and baby brain walk abroad in Lambretta Towers. Lambretta Jr has taken to waking up earlier than usual, whilst Lambretta the 3rd is incapable of burping properly, so we are forced to wait until he can produce, what can only be described as, a Dad fart. After which he promptly falls asleep. Sadly, said fart can take some time to emit, and we are left in fart limbo, desperate for sleep.
A return to the corporate world, (see yesterday's post), is becoming more attractive, on the basis that I would be relieved of some child care duties, in order to function during the working day.

Last night was okay but could've been a lot better. Ajax have had issues this season but, rightly or wrongly, I did expect better from them. I backed 1-2 at 10's, pre KO, then scalped 0-0 to leave scratch. When Utd scored their first I hoped for an Ajax equaliser. When Utd got their second I was able to take a small but decent green.
Porto are a great side to watch and being confident of them putting real pressure on the City goal early on, I laid City at KO, greened after 1-0, then laid Porto back for my green.
The Stoke game was disappointing. There was nothing to take pre KO but my expectations were of a decent game to trade in-play. That ended with an annoying but acceptable red.
Not much to go at today. Reading v Burnley is a swerve but I might take a bit 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 at Hoffenheim.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 16 February 2012

You can refuse an opportunity but never ignore one.

Had you asked me a week ago how I would feel going back into the corporate world, hives would've appeared on my skin and a violent fit may have taken over me. But, late last week I got a call from an old recruiter friend who had received a request to invite me to discuss a new opportunity.
Returning to a corporate role means working long hours, not having anywhere near the same amount of free time, not time for fitness, no time for family apart from weekends, no time for watching sport and absolutely no time for trading sport. So, why would I use up valuable time, travelling to the Big Smoke to discuss the possibility of the above? Simple. Until you know what the opportunity is, how can you make an informed decision about whether or not that opportunity is a good one.
Interesting as they might be, it's unlikely they would be asking me to write my memoirs, but how would I know that without investigating?
And, so it is with trading. We may choose not to take an opportunity but we do so based on our knowledge of the sport, teams/animals involved and what statistics tell us. Opportunities always look bigger coming than going, but better to let it slide by than never no what it was.
Am I about to dust off my suits and polish my shoes? Right now, I genuinely don't know. It's a good opportunity that's worthy of much deliberation...

Only one game of interest for me tonight. Ajax v Man U. Two of us are going to OT for the return leg next week, so I'm hoping for an Ajax win to make a real game of it in Manchester but I expect Man U to take at least a point, and the 1-2 looks value (10's) to trade in-play.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 13 February 2012

...those two impostors the same..,

The weekend delivered two really contrasting days, and was a stark example of why we should never allow emotions to creep into our trading.
Much has been written and spoken about trading psychology, not least on this blog, but I'm not waxing lyrical on that topic today.
Saturday's nag trading began very well but then I opened the ladder for the fifth race, entered far too quickly and without anything like the right level of prep and, justly, put a big dent in the bank. I'd put up three dutches for the day - Man Utd v Liverpool was text book and a great start but I ended with a scratch on Everton and a rare full stake loss after Spurs killed the game in the first 25 minutes.
In contrast, Sunday couldn't have been better. Every traded race was done so to a profit. HT 0-0 was laid at Wolves, as was the 1-2, both to very nice greens. Then a simple and value filled Dutch, which included 0-1 and only three other scores, at Villa.

The moral? Having an edge is what makes successful traders. Knowing that, in the long run, that edge will always put you in profit.

Nothing for today.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 11 February 2012

Pass the Dutchy...

Today's dutches -

Utd v Liverpool. Can't see 'pool winning 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 3-0
Bolton v Wigan. Bolton have scored 8 and conceded 3 in their last five home games. Wigan have a habit of losing 3-1 away. 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1.
Everton v Chelsea. Chelsea are crap right now and they have a poor record against Everton. 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2.
Spurs v Toon. Stats based, 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2.

Stay green.

Friday, 10 February 2012

What a difference a year makes...

When the really bad weather hit last year and decimated all the horse racing fixtures, whilst I had some sympathy for those that make their living from it, with most of the football going ahead as programmed, I took very little notice. Now, thanks to the arrival of Lambretta the 3rd and our resulting changing schedule, my outgoings are almost reliant upon horse racing going ahead. Hats off to the BHA for rallying and getting additional cards together on the All Weather but all these good jump meetings being abandoned has certainly done some damage to this month's P&L. Let's hope the weather can clear for the second half of the month.
There is some real irony here. I'd given up the ghost with nag trading, one brief email conversation back in September changed all that. Fortunately the bills can still be paid through football but I'd gotten used to my football trading now being the source of spoil myself pin money.

Today's footballing fodder will come from Germany. And the opportunities may lie in the 2.5 goal market. At 1.8 the O2.5 is a little low in the Wolfsburg game, providing a goal does not come too early, I'll look to take that on in-play. Available 2.06, the Frankfurt Overs looks value.

Whatever you trade, stay green and stay warm.

Thursday, 9 February 2012

Harry, Harry, Harry may?

Apparently, betting has been suspended on Harry Redknapp becoming England's new manager. We all knew the job would be his at some stage, it was just when. Personally, I expected Stuart Pearce to be offered the role before Harry, only because Spurs really are having the best of it this season and could go on to better things in 2013/14. I've had the privilege of meeting Mr. Redknapp, he's a gent, and certainly a man who knows his own mind and trusts his own judgement. We can be certain, any decision will not be influenced by public or official body pressure. 
I have been backing England for Euro2012 for some time, both before and after the groups were announced. Confident that whoever the manager, the team would go close. But Harry is the man to take England forward, I think we all know that now. If he takes the job at this stage or later, with Harry at the helm and the new breed of player coming through, England have a very real opportunity to become a world footballing force once more. 

After a discussion off-line, I wanted to quickly write something about value in games where the market doesn't know what to expect and the CS market in these games. Often you'll find a game where the 0-0 is around 12's, the 2.5 goals is 2.0's and things like 1-1 and 2-1 are unusually higher than you might expect. These are very clear signals the market has no idea what this game will bring and there are no strong opinions to make a difference.  Last weekend's Chelsea v Man Utd was a very good example of this. Personally, I make a point of finding games that have these pointers, for the simple reason that if you make a strong case for one thing or another, you will instantly know whether the market is offering value or not, and can take advantage.

Finally, I am happy to officially announce, Lambretta the 3rd was born a week ago today. He weighed 9lb12oz and had to use the side door but he and his Mum are doing very well. Of course, I am enormously proud of both of them. 
We're slowly getting back into the swing of things, hence my being able to post again. 

Nice dutch last night on the Boro v Sunderland game. Nothing for today.

It's good to be back. Whatever you trade, stay green.