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Monday, 30 January 2012

I am Bill Murray and I laid Villa.

Fairly sure, much like the aforementioned actor in the oft mentioned Groundhog Day, I could've learnt to play the piano, speak another language, etc, etc in the time it is taking for Lambretta the 3rd to bloody well turn up. We are now ten days late. Fortunately, the doctors have give us an inducement date of Friday this week so, he should be here, touch wood, please God, four magpies, by Sunday latest. Anyway, I'll keep you posted, through posting, as to what transpires

I had taken some time off from trading football seriously for a couple of weeks, mainly because I didn't think I would have time, but also because I felt I needed a break from it, which is never a bad thing to take, when the chance arises. Yesterday made for an interesting day to make a return. A very tidy profit had been made from the Ffos Las and Leopardstown cards and I was winding things up to get stuck into the Arsenal v Villa game. As my last intended race was ending, I looked to see I had made a very nice, slightly larger than expected profit from it. Realising a moment later that a lay position was still open on the favourite who was duly bolting up. All but £0.87p of the days profit was wiped out. I can take loss but when it's due to utter stupidity, (I hadn't traded the fav, it was just a rogue mouse click), it pisses me off.
Thank Crunchie then that my football Mojo had returned. I backed 0-0 and Unders at Arsenal, confident that a goal would not come before the half hour mark, (avg goal time in football is 27 minutes), it didn't and I closed both out for a nice green. I was about to lay Villa at 0-1, was called away briefly and glad of it when I saw the score had reached 0-2 and it was HT. This had opportunity written all over it. Did I really think that Arsenal wouldn't score at Home? Did I really believe Villa had a 66% chance of wining the game as the odds suggested? No, I absolutely did not. So, an over priced 1-2 was backed to cover the liability on a lay of Villa. Such was my confidence, I went and watched a movie with Lambretta Jr. with futbol24 updates ready on the phone. The reward came swifter than expected. Despite the schoolboy error on the nags, the day ended on a high.

Nothing for me today. Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Living in Limbo and having a bet

Lambretta the 3rd was due last Friday but is yet to put in an appearance. Mrs. Lambretta is today going for a "Stretch & Sweep", which sounds rather unsavoury to me. Hopefully, it will push things along a bit, it's like Groundhog day here at Lambretta Towers.
As mentioned in the previous post, my focus will be on nags for the foreseeable future, as it fits with the schedule better. But I'm having football withdrawal and have decided to have straight forward dutch bets (without trading in-play). Futbol24's iPhone app is particularly good for goal updates, which will be handy during feeding times etc...
I'll be posting my dutch bets on Twitter each day, @layingthedraw, if you wish to follow them.

As ever, whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 17 January 2012

Paternity leave

Lambretta the 3rd is due on Friday of this week. Mrs. Lambretta is surprisingly able and dexterous considering she looks like she is carrying quads, (it is only one), which is fortunate as there is still much for us to do in preparation and readiness for the big day. Therefore, I shall be refraining from any kind of blog activity until such a time when schedule and responsibility allow. Most regular readers will know that my posts have become somewhat sparse since the turn of the year anyway, due to the continuing demands of a nesting mother.
My trading activity will also be reduced over the coming weeks, for obvious reasons, and is likely to revolve mainly around nag trading as this fits better with all that will be going on. The break from football will be good for my trading, I fear my radar is currently off. It must be. At the weekend I suggested Bothroyd knew how to score! And last night, despite all stats suggesting otherwise, I laid the Under 4.5 market at Wigan...

Hopefully my lack of posting will not be for too long, I very much enjoy it and the feedback even more. So, until my return. Whatever you trade, stay green.

Lambretta Sr.

Friday, 13 January 2012

Trappy cards and Gremlins

In the middle of a trade I needed to exit yesterday, the ghost in the machine popped up and wouldn't let me red up. A large lump done at the start of the day meant fighting all the way through the afternoon to get it back. Some how I managed to finish the day with a decent profit. Betfair were particularly unhelpful in trying to identify the issue. None of my peers could shed any light either. Consequently, the gremlins were left with the blame. It's hard enough pitting your wits against other traders, dealing with Betfair's unreliability and overcoming your own faults, then having to deal with unidentifiable tech issues. It's a dog's life...

Very trappy cards across all of this week's football. I've been sticking with dutching and had hoped there would be some opportunities on the card to return to LTD. Only four Prem games, from this weekend, qualify on price.
Chelsea should beat Sunderland but there's unrest in the dressing room and nothing steadfast in the Blues' recent form. If anything, at 5's, the draw  looks a few ticks too high.
Liverpool are unbeaten at home in all competitions but, with six draws from eleven games, who would trust them?
Following their, rather silly, defeat to Fulham, Arsenal also cannot be trusted to go ahead at Swansea. 
The draw price at Newcastle looks tempting but with QPR now having Hughes at the helm, there's no telling how the team will respond. In short, I'l be sticking to the dutches this weekend. I'll post the dutched scores on Twitter.

Whatever you trade, stay green. 






Wednesday, 11 January 2012

Why is it stupid things seem so clever while you're doing them?

I'm ahead of the game for the month on the nags. Last week finished under what it should've done but higher than it needs to be. This week is similar. Started off going well ahead on Monday, began well yesterday but, in spite of all my mantras, Post It note reminders, electronic alarms and the like, I still managed to enter the stupidest of trades.
My golden rule is "Never trade after the bell" (an alarm that I set to go off at a particular point). I didn't ignore the bell, I ignored the rule and entered a long way after the bell sounded, and I can remember my bravado resting his hand on my shoulder and telling me it was safe to enter... Somehow I managed to make a profit on the day.
I consider myself thorough, almost meticulous, very prepared, mentally strong and ready to accept and expect anything. Sometimes though, I'm just a twat.

Decent night on the football. Someone messaged me on Twitter asking what I thought of the Palace v Cardiff game. Hadn't really looked at it but, after studying, a suggested dutch of 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1, returned a nice green. Bit disappointed more wasn't made of the Sheff v Yeovil game, as the scores were an obvious dutch but you can't find them all.
Tonight's games are half decent. Birmingham v Ipswich looks standard fodder at first glance. 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 there.
Spurs look just a shade short to me. Everton are far from poor away and the four away defeats they've had have come from Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City and Newcastle. The draw price reflects this, making it attractive but I'll stick with scores, the same as above, and be ready to cover if Everton look like holding them.
With the list of absentees at City containing the names of Balotelli, Silva and Dzeko, that games a watcher for me.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 7 January 2012

Fear - What's the worst that could happen?

It wasn't my intention to post today but, currently, I'm reading the biography of Steve Jobs, (One of the founders and the main force behind Apple Computers, for those that live in the woods).
Jobs and his friend, Steve Wozniak, entered into a partnership along with another man, Ron Wayne. The split was 45%, 45% & 10% respectively. Whilst Wayne was handed certain technical responsibilities in Apple, predominantly, he was responsible for adjudicating between Jobs and Wozniak, as his 10% share would maintain the balance.
The partnership was set up with just $1300 but it was set up in such a way that each partner would be responsible as debtor and creditor. After two weeks, Wayne decided he did not want the responsibility of any potential debt, no matter how small, went to the County Office and filed the papers that removed him from the partnership. Had he remained a partner, in 2010, his 10% would have been worth $2.6 billion. He now lives in some obscure backwater, funding a penny slot machine habit with a Social Security check.

Never fear the loss.

Stay green.

Thursday, 5 January 2012

Mancunian impostors and the influence of price.

Who the fark are they? Who is this gaggle of non-directional geese that are currently filling in for Man Utd?

The Xmas fixture list is often a little weird in it's results and stakes have been adjusted accordingly, but in which universe do you Man Utd get beat at home by a very poor footballing side, lose two league games in a row, concede 6 goals in two games and, more importantly, look like a mid table side on the brink of sliding further down? Evidently that universe is this one.
Since becoming a football trader my allegiances have faded away and watching the game played well, by which ever team, is a real pleasure. It does though become very annoying when the teams who generally play the game better than most fail to do so. Last night's game was good. Newcastle played Utd off the park and fully deserved their win. My expectation was of a good, hard fought game with both sides giving their best but Utd really let everyone down, especially their fans. (Apparently there is a day of mourning in London...)

My disappointment stems from two sources. In February, I've a special day out booked to watch Utd play Ajax in the Europa League. The hope is that this tournament will be the saving grace for Fergie's boys and they will put everything into winning it, and therefore make this game in-particular a good one to watch.
The second reason is that I dutched Utd winning score and draw lines last night. I also laid he HT 0-0, which covered any loss from the dutch but they just didn't turn up. Apparently, the same can be said for Everton, who had to rely on their keeper to score for them, then went down 1-2 to Bolton. I dutched 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, took cover on 0-0 at HT then scratched after the goal, as the stats did not read well.

The really stupid thing about all of this is that in yesterday's post I suggested both Utd and Everton were short at their respective prices! And, rather than trade around that fact, based on those prices, I stupidly got involved expecting the market to be correct. Any good trader knows that finding value and trading against opinion is, by far, the most profitable route to take. Evidently, this is a lesson I need to learn again.
Though there were no profits from the football, there were no losses either. It was a great day on the nags though. A great profit and the focus on reducing the average loss figure paid dividends - Four losing races from 3 cards and the worst race was a £4 loss. Very, very happy about that. If I can be half as good as that for the rest of the month, January could be fantastic.

No football today.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 4 January 2012

A great start to 2012

Finally, I find some time to put virtual pen to paper.

Whilst fairly quiet, Xmas was most enjoyable. My favourite part of the whole proceedings, outside of watching Lambretta Jr opening his giant, remote controlled, digger and his "peeyown fing" or, as we might refer to it, a toy rocket launcher, is the food. We spoilt ourselves this year with Waitrose catering, totally worth the money. Not just because the Xmas dinner was amazing but because the Boxing Day Bubble and Squeek was the best I've had. Then follows the ridiculous amounts of chocolate and mince pies and Yule log etc. It is against my own internal law to have these desserts without ice cream, brandy butter and/or double cream. Consequently, I have a few additional pounds to remove.
My other favourite part of Xmas was watching the great Kauto Star win the King George. Watching sporting history is always magical but watching a horse, with whom most racing fans have a love affair, triumph in such a way was fantastic. Long may he reign.

The Xmas period was very good to me trading wise. A nice few football trades and, despite Boxing Day being a low profit day, the nags brought a good number to finish of the year nicely.

Being only two weeks from the arrival of Lambretta III, New Years Eve was a quiet one for us. I took advantage and, whilst waiting for Jools Holland to announce the count down, I set about working out my average loss figure for my nag trading. This is not a P&L blog, so I won't be disclosing my profit figure. Suffice to say it is greater than the loss figure stated here. But I wanted to understand the loss figure in order to improve my overall trading profit. I made a total of 533 nag trades in December, 82 of which were losers. The loss figure for the month of December was just over £5200. As I traded 26 days in December, my average daily loss figure is £200. So, I'm making an average of 3 losing trades per day, with an average loss figure of £66.66p. The number one focus, at least for the first quarter, will be reducing that figure.

Two nice trades last night - How City were available at 2's is beyond me but a back with cover on 0-0, 0-1 and 1-1 meant a very nice green. I'd kept an eye on the Bristol City v Millwall. At HT there had been 12 shots on target, I dripped laid the 0-0 all the way down to 1.25, which just failed to get matched before Bristol got the winner.

Haven't had a proper look at tonight but both Everton and Man U look short to me. I'll post on Twitter if I get involved. @layingthedraw

Happy New Year to you all. Let's make it a green one.