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Monday, 27 February 2012

Keep 'em peeled

Snowed under this week. The second meeting pertaining to my potential return to the corporate world takes place on Thursday and I need to do lots of research to make that meeting worthwhile, and to help any decision process. Plus, with it being an international week of footy, it gives the opportunity to catch up on the snagging list of the Lambretta Towers re-furb.

The title for this post comes from my intention to have a blind auction on this site, starting later this week. The auction lot is a massive bundle of Betfair trading subscriptions, memberships and software. All kindly donated by the service providers, to raise money for Doctors of the World. A charity very close to my heart. So, as the title suggests...

Decent weekend. Toon let themselves down but 2-2 cover was taken cheaply. I posted QPR v Sunderland but, of course, I meant WBA. Sunderland too, let themselves down. Small red.
The Carling Cup made up for the lack of profit though. A lay of Liverpool at KO, greened after the goal. Followed by a Lay of Cardiff, who were fantastic and very unlucky losers.

Nothing today. Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 23 February 2012

Yet another nag endeavour

Such is my confidence with trading nags in-running, the decision was made to try my hand at trading pre race again. There was no intention to just go in blindly and see how I got on, that type of thinking has long been left behind. My objective then, was to discover a service that might be able to give me what had been lacking before. Pretty much every search term you can think of was typed into Google but only the usual suspects ever came up. By chance, (and I'm beginning to think chance doesn't exist), I came across a service that offered mentoring and a tailored solution based around what together, that being the service provider and I, would discover to be my weaknesses. Very similar to, this service offers very few memberships, in order to ensure the right level of focus for the members, which I always find reassuring.
My first task is to record an afternoon of pre race trading and send that video to the service provider, so he is able to either confirm or deny what I believe my weaknesses to be and no doubt add to the list.
I'm already encouraged. Though the service seems only to be two or three months old and the video library on offer is currently very small, I have to say it's very good in detail and, were I trading today, I should be confident of being just ever so slightly better than I was before watching those videos.
As always, my progress or lack of it will be detailed here.

There won't be any trading today of any sort as tonight, finally, I get to enjoy my charity auction win in The Executive Club of Old Trafford. It was my hope that Ajax would put up a better fight at home, so tonight's game would offer some end to end action but, I fear, Fergie may put out half a side and coast through. I'm sure it will still be very enjoyable.

Last night was okay. The U4.5 lay at City came good, mainly thanks to the very early goal, which kept the price fairly high. I had small liabilities, took a little cover, then greened up after the fourth.
After dutching Bayern win scores, I simply backed 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 at HT for scratch, which is what I ended with.

Whatever you trade stay green.

Wednesday, 22 February 2012

A-V-B, F-R-O!

As an ex, long term, Chelsea fan I find it staggering that Roman has allowed Villash Boash to remain in the post. Jose Mourinho, the true father of Chelsea Football Club, was pushed out despite enormous success. And further managers have had short lived Chelsea careers for doing a damn sight better than this hapless incumbant.
Chelsea not only failed to get past Birmingham at home, they actually went 0-1 down to them. They did not look strong last night, their fortuitous goal was against the run of play and not one member of the side looked confident. It must be said that, other than leaving out Ashley Cole, who came on early anyway, I do not disagree with AVB's team selection. It's not the players on the field that are causing the problem, it's the collective lack of belief and confidence in the manager himself.

Despite the number of goals in Napoli, it was still a good night for trading. Real Madrid did just enough, as expected. I missed the first goal but scalped the 0-1 down for a decent green. I also missed the chance to enter the low score dutch in Napoli, which was a blessing, but a Chelsea lay was nailed on after their goal.

Will likely go in-play on most tonight but City v Porto... Porto love to go forward, have nothing to lose and City, as we know, are very good at home. Between them they have an avg of 4.08 goals Home and Away. At 1.19, I'll be laying U4.5 goals.
Basel v Bayern - Something around 0-2, 1-2, 0-3.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Tuesday, 21 February 2012

Any dutch in the Champions League?

Of course there are no dutch teams in the CL but there is some value in dutching the front three, possibly even the front four. The likelihood of one of these teams ending up in the final against Basel, Benfica or APOEL, is pretty remote. So, we can be fairly confident that at least two of the four will go through. Of course, there shouldn't really be any real danger of losing money, as each individual team can be laid in the Match Odds market in the individual games that lead up to the final, it's likely to be cheap too.

Tonight's games don't hold much promise by way of classics in the making. Real are likely to just do enough and Napoli have a great home record in the league and an equally good one against English sides in Europe, plus Chelsea are shit. I'll be looking to trade CSKA v Real in-play. Napoli v Chelsea is all about dutching the low scores, though at 8.4 and 13.5 respectively, 1-0 and 2-0 might be value.
Currently available at 11.'s (!), 2-1 looks value for trading in-play at Blackpool.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Friday, 17 February 2012

Indefatigable. Not!

Baby drain and baby brain walk abroad in Lambretta Towers. Lambretta Jr has taken to waking up earlier than usual, whilst Lambretta the 3rd is incapable of burping properly, so we are forced to wait until he can produce, what can only be described as, a Dad fart. After which he promptly falls asleep. Sadly, said fart can take some time to emit, and we are left in fart limbo, desperate for sleep.
A return to the corporate world, (see yesterday's post), is becoming more attractive, on the basis that I would be relieved of some child care duties, in order to function during the working day.

Last night was okay but could've been a lot better. Ajax have had issues this season but, rightly or wrongly, I did expect better from them. I backed 1-2 at 10's, pre KO, then scalped 0-0 to leave scratch. When Utd scored their first I hoped for an Ajax equaliser. When Utd got their second I was able to take a small but decent green.
Porto are a great side to watch and being confident of them putting real pressure on the City goal early on, I laid City at KO, greened after 1-0, then laid Porto back for my green.
The Stoke game was disappointing. There was nothing to take pre KO but my expectations were of a decent game to trade in-play. That ended with an annoying but acceptable red.
Not much to go at today. Reading v Burnley is a swerve but I might take a bit 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 at Hoffenheim.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Thursday, 16 February 2012

You can refuse an opportunity but never ignore one.

Had you asked me a week ago how I would feel going back into the corporate world, hives would've appeared on my skin and a violent fit may have taken over me. But, late last week I got a call from an old recruiter friend who had received a request to invite me to discuss a new opportunity.
Returning to a corporate role means working long hours, not having anywhere near the same amount of free time, not time for fitness, no time for family apart from weekends, no time for watching sport and absolutely no time for trading sport. So, why would I use up valuable time, travelling to the Big Smoke to discuss the possibility of the above? Simple. Until you know what the opportunity is, how can you make an informed decision about whether or not that opportunity is a good one.
Interesting as they might be, it's unlikely they would be asking me to write my memoirs, but how would I know that without investigating?
And, so it is with trading. We may choose not to take an opportunity but we do so based on our knowledge of the sport, teams/animals involved and what statistics tell us. Opportunities always look bigger coming than going, but better to let it slide by than never no what it was.
Am I about to dust off my suits and polish my shoes? Right now, I genuinely don't know. It's a good opportunity that's worthy of much deliberation...

Only one game of interest for me tonight. Ajax v Man U. Two of us are going to OT for the return leg next week, so I'm hoping for an Ajax win to make a real game of it in Manchester but I expect Man U to take at least a point, and the 1-2 looks value (10's) to trade in-play.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 13 February 2012

...those two impostors the same..,

The weekend delivered two really contrasting days, and was a stark example of why we should never allow emotions to creep into our trading.
Much has been written and spoken about trading psychology, not least on this blog, but I'm not waxing lyrical on that topic today.
Saturday's nag trading began very well but then I opened the ladder for the fifth race, entered far too quickly and without anything like the right level of prep and, justly, put a big dent in the bank. I'd put up three dutches for the day - Man Utd v Liverpool was text book and a great start but I ended with a scratch on Everton and a rare full stake loss after Spurs killed the game in the first 25 minutes.
In contrast, Sunday couldn't have been better. Every traded race was done so to a profit. HT 0-0 was laid at Wolves, as was the 1-2, both to very nice greens. Then a simple and value filled Dutch, which included 0-1 and only three other scores, at Villa.

The moral? Having an edge is what makes successful traders. Knowing that, in the long run, that edge will always put you in profit.

Nothing for today.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 11 February 2012

Pass the Dutchy...

Today's dutches -

Utd v Liverpool. Can't see 'pool winning 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 3-0
Bolton v Wigan. Bolton have scored 8 and conceded 3 in their last five home games. Wigan have a habit of losing 3-1 away. 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1.
Everton v Chelsea. Chelsea are crap right now and they have a poor record against Everton. 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2.
Spurs v Toon. Stats based, 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2.

Stay green.

Friday, 10 February 2012

What a difference a year makes...

When the really bad weather hit last year and decimated all the horse racing fixtures, whilst I had some sympathy for those that make their living from it, with most of the football going ahead as programmed, I took very little notice. Now, thanks to the arrival of Lambretta the 3rd and our resulting changing schedule, my outgoings are almost reliant upon horse racing going ahead. Hats off to the BHA for rallying and getting additional cards together on the All Weather but all these good jump meetings being abandoned has certainly done some damage to this month's P&L. Let's hope the weather can clear for the second half of the month.
There is some real irony here. I'd given up the ghost with nag trading, one brief email conversation back in September changed all that. Fortunately the bills can still be paid through football but I'd gotten used to my football trading now being the source of spoil myself pin money.

Today's footballing fodder will come from Germany. And the opportunities may lie in the 2.5 goal market. At 1.8 the O2.5 is a little low in the Wolfsburg game, providing a goal does not come too early, I'll look to take that on in-play. Available 2.06, the Frankfurt Overs looks value.

Whatever you trade, stay green and stay warm.

Thursday, 9 February 2012

Harry, Harry, Harry may?

Apparently, betting has been suspended on Harry Redknapp becoming England's new manager. We all knew the job would be his at some stage, it was just when. Personally, I expected Stuart Pearce to be offered the role before Harry, only because Spurs really are having the best of it this season and could go on to better things in 2013/14. I've had the privilege of meeting Mr. Redknapp, he's a gent, and certainly a man who knows his own mind and trusts his own judgement. We can be certain, any decision will not be influenced by public or official body pressure. 
I have been backing England for Euro2012 for some time, both before and after the groups were announced. Confident that whoever the manager, the team would go close. But Harry is the man to take England forward, I think we all know that now. If he takes the job at this stage or later, with Harry at the helm and the new breed of player coming through, England have a very real opportunity to become a world footballing force once more. 

After a discussion off-line, I wanted to quickly write something about value in games where the market doesn't know what to expect and the CS market in these games. Often you'll find a game where the 0-0 is around 12's, the 2.5 goals is 2.0's and things like 1-1 and 2-1 are unusually higher than you might expect. These are very clear signals the market has no idea what this game will bring and there are no strong opinions to make a difference.  Last weekend's Chelsea v Man Utd was a very good example of this. Personally, I make a point of finding games that have these pointers, for the simple reason that if you make a strong case for one thing or another, you will instantly know whether the market is offering value or not, and can take advantage.

Finally, I am happy to officially announce, Lambretta the 3rd was born a week ago today. He weighed 9lb12oz and had to use the side door but he and his Mum are doing very well. Of course, I am enormously proud of both of them. 
We're slowly getting back into the swing of things, hence my being able to post again. 

Nice dutch last night on the Boro v Sunderland game. Nothing for today.

It's good to be back. Whatever you trade, stay green.