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Monday, 30 April 2012

When will the FA ever learn?

I am truly, genuinely staggered and desperately disappointed to wake up to the news that the hapless, hopeless Roy Hodgson is to become the next England manager.
Please, someone show me examples of his inspirational leadership, his highly developed tactical knowledge, his ability to capture a dressing room, his confidence in handling big players in a big team. Nothing on his CV suggests how he could even figure in the thinking of those responsible for finding a new manager. Which only adds more weight to the argument that the FA is too far removed.
Psycho wants the job but is grown up enough to say he is not ready yet. Harry is the right man for the job, on paper, but I'm not sure if he is showing allegiance to his club or concealing a fear.
I ask just once to see my national team win a tournament, yet again the FA have pissed on that fire.
I have been backing England to go close this summer, this morning I shall be closing all positions, before the price disappears.
It goes almost without saying, I'd be very happy to have Mr. Hodgson prove me wrong, but I'm more likely to lay England now than back them.

Thursday, 26 April 2012

I am a Chelsea fan after all

For many years I was a very proud Chelsea fan. Regularly at the Bridge, living the highs and lows. That enthusiasm waned after I became so involved in the beautiful game from a statistical and analytical perspective. My love for Chelsea alone dissipated and a love for the game as a whole, to see it played well and properly replaced it. That was, I thought, until Tuesday night. When Fernando Torres picked up the ball and went forward to score, I was out of my seat, screaming at the box for him to right all wrongs. When he scored, I was elated, jumping and dancing around the room. Mrs Lambretta, laughing, said she hadn't seen me so excited since, she recalled, "that game we watched when we were in Sweden in 2005". That game? Chelsea v Barcelona 2nd leg. Chelsea won 5-4 on agg. Both were ties that will never be forgotten, nor should they but Tuesday's was truly legendary. 
Ask me now, I'll tell you I support Chelsea. Hideously, this fever has already consumed me, I am anxious and concerned about how the fark we are going to beat Munchen in their own back yard...

It's been an up and down April. Football has been stable throughout the month but I had a big blip with the nags mid month. Over confidence and too much liability in the market led to the inevitable but I've made changes to my set up and, since it happened, I've noticed a real change in my mind set. The losses have been recovered and I'm optimistic about how this month will end and the summer's potential. Yet another lesson learnt.

A mate of mine used to record a very good poker podcast, he always maintained he would stop doing so when, for whatever reason, it was no longer fun to do so. On that basis, I took a break from posting. It's clear now it is something I really enjoy doing. Writing this blog has numerous benefits for me but ultimately just one objective, that is to help anyone who wishes to make a success of sports trading, in any way I can. It has been the most enormously tough, humbling, humiliating, pride swallowing endeavour to get to the stage I am at and, in truth, I am a long way from the, if there is such a thing, finished article. But my fundamental reason for writing this blog is to stop, if possible, anyone falling into the same pitfalls I did. Should this blog ever read in anything other than a humourous, modest and helpful way, I would be grateful if you told me. 

It's not in my usual MO to plug services on this blog, unless I think they are any good. A friend and extremely  talented trader has just launched a new service thesportstradingacademy.co.uk I would be very surprised if you took the £10 trial and were disappointed. I assure you, I am not on a cut. 

No trades today but a very good friend works for Gefle IF, so I'm having a tenner on them.

Stay green.


 

Thursday, 12 April 2012

Greed - The novice trader's downfall.

Had a really interesting conversation yesterday about the effect of greed on the novice trader. I, like most, thought I had found the golden goose when I happened upon sorts trading. Plans were made for what the vast, untold riches would be spent on etc. Then, of course, reality came calling to give me the real picture. Undeterred, I persevered in the hope that those riches, or something close to them, would eventually be available. I've posted before about how lucky I was in having the funds and support in order to continue, the majority do not.
I've also posted about how, if I had to start all over again, I would go about it. What many, me included, try and do is make the same amounts they hear others are making or what they see in videos. Yes, it is possible to make more than you did/do in your 9 - 5, but the real benefits lie in your quality of life - Being your own boss, working your own hours, spending time with significant other and/or kids, having the ability to do what you want, when you want. Ask yourself this, if you were paid as much as you earn/earned in your 9-5 but with all the benefits listed above, would you do it? Of course you would. So, don't push or force yourself to earn what you think you should be earning through trading, strive to make what you do already. Once you've achieved that and have all the benefits that come with it, then you can allocate time to improving your income.

Didn't get involved with any of last night's matches. They looked dodgy and proved to be so, mostly. I knew Utd would have one slip against a relegation troubled side. Sadly it came too late for my Winners Market lay... Nothing today.

The Grand National - It is against my betting policy to back at short odds in the National, especially as it should be 8-1 the field just to get round, but I like Giles Cross. The others I like at bigger odds are Abbeyraney, Ballyvesey, Le Beau Bai.

Stay green.

Wednesday, 11 April 2012

Flat out

Funny where life takes you. Expecting a quiet, chocolate fuelled weekend, I found myself enjoying quail's eggs and "Fizz" on the lawn with Godfrey and Lady Judy, whilst the kids hunted eggs "in the grounds". Very nice it was too.

I downed tools last Thursday night and, despite the jam packed football card and plethora of racing, I didn't pick them up again until yesterday, which went well. I'm really happy we are now entering the flat season proper. Being much longer, the sticks races can and do hold more opportunities but I like the speed and force of action on the flat. Plus, with evening racing, there are more meetings.
Liverpool looked big last night but I wasn't confident enough to trade MO, so I plumped for 1-2, which came a bit soon but the red card ensured the price plummeted and 48% green should not be sniffed at.
Will look at tonight's card this morning and update later. I'll also have a trawl through the Grand National line up. You have to have a bet in the National, it's the law.

Stay green.

Wednesday, 4 April 2012

Ignore them at your peril

Since seeking and finding them back in 2009,  I have been a strong advocate of the UEFA Coefficient tables. Very often the market will not reflect the true standings of one European team against another in UEFA competitions. For once though, it seems they have it right.
Chelsea are currently 1.7 in the Match Odds market, how often would you get that? But, is it value? For me it's about right. The Coefficients have Benfica just two spots below Chelsea. The Blues are finding their feet in the season with RDM and John Terry pushing things forward and I do expect them to qualify, though they have taken just six from the last eleven at home. Benfica have taken six from their last twelve away, plus they have nothing to lose. Potentially it could be a great game but my starting scores will be 1-1, 2-0, 2-1.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_coefficient

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/tcoef2012.html

Cracking football at the Nou Camp last night. I was disappointed for Milan, for two reasons. They've played really well throughout the competition and I'd backed 2-2.
Pep had told the world that Milan would score. The two previous legs had finished 2-3 and 2-2 so, how the 2-2 last night could be 34's, 36's and then as big as 40's is beyond me. I removed my stake at 11.5 and took little bits out as the game went on. Very acceptable green.

Fell back into an old habit on the nags yesterday and paid the price. Doesn't matter how experienced you may or may not be... It's how we react to these errors that's important.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 2 April 2012

Congratulations to...

@gamblinggeek! The lucky winner of the Geat Betfair Trading Prize Bundle. Well done, Mike.

My sincere and genuine thanks to everyone who made a donation, particularly those who went to great lengths to do so. Also to all the service and software providers who donated such a huge and really valuable group of prizes. They all deserve another mention and if you haven't checked any of them out yet, you really should -

Bet Angel Pro http://www.betangel.com/
ZeroHype http://www.zerohype.co.uk/
Trade Shark Tennis http://www.tradesharktennis.com/
Bonus Bagging http://www.bonusbagging.co.uk/
Betting System Notes & Market Matcher http://www.bettingsystemnotes.com/
Pre Match Trading prematchtrading.com
Trading Football tradingfootball.eu

I received many donations from people not wishing to use JustGiving, not sure why but I would be interested to know..?

The weekend was brilliant for the nags but not so good on the footy. The Villa v Chelsea game looked to be going the right way. I was just about to green up on the 2-1 when Villa equalised, no point chasing it, ended with a very rare full loss. I added 2-0 at HT at Everton and ended with a half decent green there. QPR v Arsenal looked dodgy when QPR went ahead for the second time but I allowed it to run and scored the expected green on that. Unfortunately, Sunderland's miraculous draw at Man City sent my Winners Market lay of Utd into free fall. Laid at 1.4, I had to red up at 1.27. Managed to get a lump back on both yesterday's games.
Tonight, I'm laying U1.5 goals at Ewood Park.

Whatever you trade, say green.