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Wednesday, 4 April 2012

Ignore them at your peril

Since seeking and finding them back in 2009,  I have been a strong advocate of the UEFA Coefficient tables. Very often the market will not reflect the true standings of one European team against another in UEFA competitions. For once though, it seems they have it right.
Chelsea are currently 1.7 in the Match Odds market, how often would you get that? But, is it value? For me it's about right. The Coefficients have Benfica just two spots below Chelsea. The Blues are finding their feet in the season with RDM and John Terry pushing things forward and I do expect them to qualify, though they have taken just six from the last eleven at home. Benfica have taken six from their last twelve away, plus they have nothing to lose. Potentially it could be a great game but my starting scores will be 1-1, 2-0, 2-1.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_coefficient

http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/tcoef2012.html

Cracking football at the Nou Camp last night. I was disappointed for Milan, for two reasons. They've played really well throughout the competition and I'd backed 2-2.
Pep had told the world that Milan would score. The two previous legs had finished 2-3 and 2-2 so, how the 2-2 last night could be 34's, 36's and then as big as 40's is beyond me. I removed my stake at 11.5 and took little bits out as the game went on. Very acceptable green.

Fell back into an old habit on the nags yesterday and paid the price. Doesn't matter how experienced you may or may not be... It's how we react to these errors that's important.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

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