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Wednesday, 20 June 2012

He's done it.

The pressure is off for Roy Hodgson.
Two wins and a draw see England win the group, more than anyone realistically hoped for.
The tide has turned. With exception of the woefully biased ref against France, the rub of the green now seems to be in England's favour. Ukraine are incensed about the ball crossing the line but their boy was offside anyway. We are a lot more used to having those go against us.
All this and guess what - I have to read texts and tweets from numbskulls whinging and whining, predominantly from those who would profess to knowing the game better than most.
Have we been particularly good? No but we've been good enough.
Can we win it? Highly unlikely but, other than Germany or Spain, there isn't a side I'd really fear.
Personally, I shall just enjoy the ride from this point on, we've already over achieved.
Mr Hodgson - You are welcome to serve me my words, along with a large slice of humble pie. Well done, sir.

Friday, 15 June 2012

Death or Glory?

So far this tournament has been really good, with some excellent games. Particularly Wednesday's Group B games and last night between Italy and Croatia. Italy looked to be cruising but then just didn't pick up when necessary. They will now be forced to really push against Ireland, scoring at least 3, to secure 5 points and hope that Spain can get past Croatia. If Italy win then Spain and Croatia draw it will all come down to goal difference.
Small green available right now on my Italy back but I'm hopeful of being able to trade out during the games. 

The markets are not confident of an England win tonight but, after doing the sums, I can't see a scenario where England cannot go for the win. 
A french win in the early game and we need the win to move ahead of Ukraine, who we then play, no doubt parking the bus...
A draw in the early game and we need the win to go ahead of France, who would be confident of three points against Sweden, leaving us to get a win from the final game against Ukraine. 
A Ukraine win in the early game and we are fighting against France, who would have that easier game against Sweden, for one remaining spot. 
So, what does this mean from a trading perspective? For me it means England are too big at 2.26, it also means that Over 2.5 goals is too big at 2.24, as Sweden are forced to push. The Overs trade will almost be cover for the England back, as it's likely we will park the bus if we go 1-0 up. Of course, if we win 3-0 or 2-1 - Double Bubble. 

Come what may, FFS England, make me proud. 

Stay green. 

Monday, 11 June 2012

Pass the Dutch...

Confidence was not that high in the Dutch getting through the groups but I didn't expect them to falter so early. My hope was to lay them if they got through, which they still might, but, unless they put together two outstanding performances against Germany and Portugal, their price will not be as attractive. Plus, if they got a result against those two, I'd have to think twice about laying them anyway. So, in short, that's out the window.
The O2.5 in that game had tempted me, it didn't pan out very well and I ended with just short of scratch.

I had taken 2-1 in the Germany v Portugal game with the intention of scalping 0-0 to leave a free trade and/or adding some scores earlyish in the game. After the shock defeat of the dutch, understandably, Portugal played for the draw, which they almost got. Their being defensive made it easier to scalp 0-0 which I continued to do throughout the first half, putting a nice green across CS.
Apparently there has been some quiet money for Portugal, I have no idea why. They have a handful of decent players but there are much better middling sides in this tournament, who were available at better prices. Italy being a good example. Available at 18's on Friday (taken), they are now 13.5 and still look value for it. Albeit Spain did not look great last night, Italy looked confident and assured.
After becoming a Champions League winner and scoring the goal that took them to the final, one may have hoped the real Fernando Torres had returned. Where has the deft touch, turn of foot and vision gone?

On to tonight. I've backed both Sweden and Ukraine to finish bottom of Group D so, ideally, France and England will draw 1-1 and Sweden will draw 0-0 with Ukraine.
My feeling is England should be happy with that result. The French are good, better than assumed IMO.
I have no angle on either game and will look for in-play opportunities.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Saturday, 9 June 2012

Cracking start

So many were concerned there may not be very many goals in the opening games of this tournament, the 0-0 price for the opening game was 7.0, some of us were a little more optimistic.
Poland were fast from the blocks and got their deserved opener, when the Greek player (his name is too difficult even to type), was sent off, Poland's price plummeted to 1.15 and I greened, leaving the 1-1 cover in. 
Not long after Poland went ahead I backed U2.5 and took cover on 2-1. This looked comfortable until the Greek red card but I was still confident, particularly after the Greeks then missed a penalty.
Two very nice trades to begin the tournament and, even though there wasn't much quality about, the opening game was a decent spectacle to watch. The second game was rife with quality and the Russians looked very good. Arshavin was particularly good to watch and his incisive ball for the second was fantastic. By the time I thought about entering a trade the opportunity had passed.

Tonight should see both Holland and Germany make their mark on the tournament. 
Over 2.5 in the Holland v Denmark game looks a little high for me, I'll be taking that on in-play.
Germany v Portugal has some potential. I took some of the 2-1 last night, will scalp 0-0 from KO and add some scores in the second half if necessary. 

A great start to a tournament that, only being two games old, is already hinting at being really great. 

Stay green. 

Friday, 8 June 2012

Let the fun begin

I'm in a really good mood today, for a couple of reasons. As you know, tonight sees the beginning of Euro2012. The bi-annual abyss, between the World Cup and Euro, is always miserable from a sporting perspective so, when either tournament is on, like most, I get very excited.
Weirdly, I'm actually more excited about being excited. After ending trading as a profession, I had a real fear my passion for football my have waned and that I may wish to give it a wide berth for a while. 
Rarely has my trading software been opened these last few weeks and my initial thought was I hadn't missed trading at all. But when I woke this morning, there were pangs of the same kind of excitement I used to feel when I first began trading. Lying in bed, trawling through the markets on iBetMate, (brilliant app), and looking for the value trade. There's no inkling to return to full time, I'm just really pleased that I can still enjoy trading and football as pass times. 

Unsurprisingly, England have drifted. This, despite the two friendly wins. Very pleased I managed to get all my backs out for scratch. 
Though I backed Holland in the World Cup, they don't look like winners to me and I'll be laying them should they qualify from the group. 
I don't expect them to win but Italy look big at 18's. I'll be taking that and looking to get around 10's after they qualify. 
At time of writing I am going through the markets and have come across Rock Bottom, the team that will finish bottom of each individual group. Let me state, I have just called Betfair to confirm this as I can't believe the prices, Ukraine are currently 2.98 to finish bottom and Sweden are 2.74. Dutching the two has to be free money IMO, I'm on at the prices stated. 

If I can I'll put up my trades each day throughout the competition.

Tonight I'm backing Poland with cover on 1-1.

Whatever you trade, stay green.