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Friday, 15 June 2012

Death or Glory?

So far this tournament has been really good, with some excellent games. Particularly Wednesday's Group B games and last night between Italy and Croatia. Italy looked to be cruising but then just didn't pick up when necessary. They will now be forced to really push against Ireland, scoring at least 3, to secure 5 points and hope that Spain can get past Croatia. If Italy win then Spain and Croatia draw it will all come down to goal difference.
Small green available right now on my Italy back but I'm hopeful of being able to trade out during the games. 

The markets are not confident of an England win tonight but, after doing the sums, I can't see a scenario where England cannot go for the win. 
A french win in the early game and we need the win to move ahead of Ukraine, who we then play, no doubt parking the bus...
A draw in the early game and we need the win to go ahead of France, who would be confident of three points against Sweden, leaving us to get a win from the final game against Ukraine. 
A Ukraine win in the early game and we are fighting against France, who would have that easier game against Sweden, for one remaining spot. 
So, what does this mean from a trading perspective? For me it means England are too big at 2.26, it also means that Over 2.5 goals is too big at 2.24, as Sweden are forced to push. The Overs trade will almost be cover for the England back, as it's likely we will park the bus if we go 1-0 up. Of course, if we win 3-0 or 2-1 - Double Bubble. 

Come what may, FFS England, make me proud. 

Stay green. 

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