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Friday, 28 September 2012

Lunchtime market trawling

Sat here at my desk in corporate London, I find I have a few, brief moments to explore tomorrow's Premiership markets. Overall, it looks a tricky card though there is one opportunity that stands out.
Everton's early form has been vastly over estimated and their current price of 1.45 looks far too short. Though not taking many points, Southampton have proven themselves worthy of this league and will be growing in confidence, particularly after giving Villa a very real wake-up call.
Everton are a lay for me and the CS market offers great value for cover.

Once again, I'll wax lyrical about the skill and endeavour of Robbo from @TSTA. This week he took time out of his own trading to walk me through another of his strategies, a particularly profitable one.
If the opportunity to get involved should present itself, my advice is to take it.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Wednesday, 19 September 2012

I should do this for a living...

Real Madrid v Man City - Best game I've seen in a long time. The quality on show, all over the park, was phenomenal and the goals were fantastic.
I'm not a huge fan of City but I do like to see English clubs doing well in Europe and I'd be lying of I said I didn't feel for them after Ronaldo's winner.
It was a great game from a trading point of view as well. A real value lay of AUQ at 6's made for a very nice green and I'd allowed my dutched scores to run up to 80 minutes in Montpellier. Another nice lump.

At the weekend my good friend Robbo, of The Sports Trading Academy, began a three part course on pre race nag trading. After just the first session I'm seeing a real improvement in my entry points, entry times and discipline. If you get the opportunity to join the next one, it is very much advised.

Will be watching Chelsea with only in-play trades on tonight's card.

Stay green.

Monday, 17 September 2012

...and, as if to prove my point..,

...City drew as well.

It stands to reason that a bookie offering you a price is doing so because it offers value to them not you. The same goes for the TV ads you see pre game and HT, offering "Live Odds" on the first/next goal scorer, number of corners etc. They, like us, study stats to determine a likely outcome and make a tissue around that outcome. Would they offer 10/1 about Berba scoring next if they thought it would really happen? Course not. But guess how many mugs snatch up their phones with the cry "I'm avvin' summa dat!" when they see it.
I'm the last advocate of Betfair as a service provider, frankly they are appalling, but the idea and concept works and because of that we, as traders or punters, should be able to enter the market at the right price.

Everton v Newcastle
The Toffees have a decent Home record against Toon but I'm not convinced about tonight. They are WWL & Newcastle are WLD. The MO market has Everton about right, if a little short but 1-1 is huge at 8.8 and with cover here, I'll be hoping to get a bit bigger about Everton in-play.

Whatever you trade, stay green .

Saturday, 15 September 2012

Bookies schmookies

Betfair would be the perfect betting portal were it not for their lazy arsed approach to regular outages and their ridiculous premium charges. And they might attract more of their precious "punters" if they got their marketing right...
If they want to attract me, bookies also need to change their message.
I can't remember who from, as I deleted it straight away, but I received an email from a bookie this week, suggesting today could be a "Super Saturday" - based on Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool and City winning. The odds on offer for this four fold were, according to them, massive at 9.5, or 17/2 in old money. So, in essence, this email loosely translated, in my head anyway, as thus:

Dear F*ckwit,

We believe you are as thick as pig sh*t. Consequently, we want to offer you desperately poor odds about a four fold that we think you are likely to take on because you are as thick as pig sh*t. It is highly unlikely that this this four fold will come in as draws are invariably borne of the Fav playing away. So, our banker is Liverpool losing or drawing. But guess what? Because we've offered desperately poor odds, it doesn't really matter if it does come in.

Thanks for the free money, bitch.

See you next week.

Betfair is the necessary evil but, if you're not in the PC range, bet against opinion, where value is always on offer.

Stay green.

Tuesday, 11 September 2012

...a change gonna come.

I did my sums this morning and calculated I spend more time on trains each week than I do with my boys. That won't do at all.
Additionally, that time spent on trains means I have very little time to study games. Fortunately, that's not true of tonight's.

Last Friday I laid the HT 0-0 to great effect. Couldn't be as confident of doing the same tonight, but will look to do it in-play, and there is very little value in CS right now.
That said, at 10's, 2-1 is looking okay. Ukraine haven't scored in their last three but the beauty of 2-1 is, regardless of who scores first, the price will drop. As long as it's not too late in the game.

Anyway. It's good to be posting again. Whatever you trade, stay green.