BBC Sport | Football | World Edition

Wednesday, 31 October 2012

Clattenburg Gate and Round Two

If ever there was a straight forward argument for introducing video into the Prem (F*ck Blatter, Platini and their chums) Sunday's games were it.
Talking through my pocket slightly as I was confident of another goal in the scouse derby, and it came. Suarez, clearly on-side, slides home the winner... or not.
Then, when the mighty blues manage to retrieve a game that looked lost, Clattenburg manages to fark up a perfectly good game. No arguments with Ivanovic's red, administered to the letter of the law and correct. Torres' I disagree with. The string of faux pas that Clattenburg is accused of actually has small bearing.
When you consider that two of the season's biggest games, played on the same day, were decided by poor decisions from those given the responsibility for the game being governed correctly, what more evidence do you need for adding in a technology that cannot be incorrect? Cricket, Tennis...

So, after Sunday's debacle at Stamford Bridge, what can we expect from round two? Different teams? Almost certainly. Different tactics? Most definitely. But what to expect from a goal and result perspective?
Over 2.5 is currently trading at 1.65, yet the only likely first team, goal scoring starter is Rooney. RVP may be on the bench or have a day off. Torres and Lampard are out. Yes, both teams still have a plethora of goal scorers, particularly Chelsea, but after Sunday's end to end, super fast paced action, should we expect the same again?
Over 2.5 is a 20 minute lay for me and I'll be trading the 2-1 from KO too.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 29 October 2012

I must be getting old

Set up almost the perfect trade yesterday in what, I was confident, would be a high scoring game.
The markets expected the same or similar in the Chelsea v Man U game and had U3.5 at 1.7, which to this trader looked good value, with some cover on the 0-0 which was 18.5.
Took the 0-0 just before KO knowing that this would not take long to reach a point where I had a free trade but also being aware that, obviously, early goals would not be an issue...
BANG! David Luiz scores with his arse after a couple of minutes and, whilst my 0-0 stake was gone, the U3.5 flew out. Ten minutes later Chelsea were found asleep by the awesome RVP, he nets and the trade is guaranteed green, should I choose to take it, which I didn't, being confident of more goals.
Those goals came, Mark Clattenburg metaphorically gave Fergie a nosh and the game was all over.
Then I had that moment. The realisation, the knowing, the sinking in of the mistake you've made before you get actual confirmation... Yes, I had covered the 0-0 but I hadn't laid the U3.5 as was my intention. So, essentially I'd just had a large bet on 0-0. The boys at Betfair must have been laughing their nuts off at the numpty who thought the game would finish goal-less.

I must add that I put my trainers in the fridge last week and the cheese in the hallway, dementia is setting in, though I am but a youthful 40!

Stay green.

Wednesday, 24 October 2012

Tales of the Unexpected...

A really good trio of games last night and whilst the final results were expected, some of the performances were not.
Chelsea, as the markets suggested, were not expected to win against a Shaktar side who have not lost for something near a year. From what I saw, they never looked in the game. No trade for me in this one but, given the outcome and performance, the European Champions looked a cheap lay.
Utd were expected to beat a decent Braga side and they did but their price was short and many expected and traded the early away goal. My lay of AUQ was easily covered, finishing with a nice green. 
The lay of U4.5 in Barca, with 0-0 cover made for an easy trade. Managed to get my 0-0 back matched at 55 and traded out for covering green at 30, leaving a free trade, which resulted in a scratch. With Celtic's opener and Barca struggling to break them down, a lay of Celtic at 7.6 and a back of 0-1 at 23's was the best and most profitable trade of the night.
And it was Celtic who brought about the most unexpected of last night's events. Albeit an own goal from Mascherano, Celtic taking the lead at the Camp Nou is the stuff of dreams but for them to keep out the most potent strike force in football today, to the extent that they did, was truly heroic. Fraser Forster was truly fantastic between the sticks, making incredible reaction and, what seemed to be, out of reach saves. 
I'm not a fan of Celtic or Scottish football as a whole but whatever accolades are heaped on them, they are all truly deserved after such a brilliant performance. 

I like 2-2 as trade-able in both the Arsenal and City games tonight.

Stay green. 

Tuesday, 16 October 2012

Polish them off

Tonight England play a rival who have caused some upset in the past and dashed English hopes and, for a change, the markets are reflecting this.
This Poland side are lacking in my opinion. Their attempt this Summer, as co-hosts, to show a certain level futtered out quickly with their failure to move past the group stage.
England have won 9, drawn 2 and lost just 1 of their last 12 away games. With a victory tonight, they can all but look past this stage and concentrate on training & planning for the final event.
As suggested, tonight's markets are on our side. At 1.98, England are massive IMO and, with cover on 1-1, look a very safe trade. With few goals expected, should it go pear shaped, real trouble should be easily avoidable.
That expectation of few goals leaves Overs at 2.28, which is probably about right but will definitely be worth trading in-play, around the stats, for the first goal.

Whatever you trade, stay green.

Monday, 8 October 2012

Camelot really not so rounded after all.

Rare I should post regarding actual nag racing but after yesterday's Arc De Triomphe I felt it necessary.
I'd laid Camelot in the St. Leger based on trip and other factors, which proved very worthwhile. Comparatively, yesterday's price seemed even better than that of the Doncaster race, based on opposition and likelihood. I laid Camelot again for a liability that matched the previous green, so as to ensure no real loss. A few short furlongs, or metres, later and Camelot was beaten yet again.

Decent afternoon of football yesterday too. A back of 1-0 at 11.5 (Southampton), after the goal, saw a nice return just after HT.
I dutched 0-2, 1-2, 2-2 in the Toon v Man Utd game. After the second goal I laid AUQ, which has a tendancy to over-react in that situation and, sure enough, a solid forty ticks green made for a freebie trade on the dutch. Just after HT I took out the stake and a little bit more on 0-2, added it to 0-3 and let it run.

Another international break. I'm not sure which is worse, the break from the Premiership, having to endure all the bollocks spouted by numerous farkwit's in the media or watching the football itself.

Whatever you trade, stay green.