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Monday, 29 October 2012

I must be getting old

Set up almost the perfect trade yesterday in what, I was confident, would be a high scoring game.
The markets expected the same or similar in the Chelsea v Man U game and had U3.5 at 1.7, which to this trader looked good value, with some cover on the 0-0 which was 18.5.
Took the 0-0 just before KO knowing that this would not take long to reach a point where I had a free trade but also being aware that, obviously, early goals would not be an issue...
BANG! David Luiz scores with his arse after a couple of minutes and, whilst my 0-0 stake was gone, the U3.5 flew out. Ten minutes later Chelsea were found asleep by the awesome RVP, he nets and the trade is guaranteed green, should I choose to take it, which I didn't, being confident of more goals.
Those goals came, Mark Clattenburg metaphorically gave Fergie a nosh and the game was all over.
Then I had that moment. The realisation, the knowing, the sinking in of the mistake you've made before you get actual confirmation... Yes, I had covered the 0-0 but I hadn't laid the U3.5 as was my intention. So, essentially I'd just had a large bet on 0-0. The boys at Betfair must have been laughing their nuts off at the numpty who thought the game would finish goal-less.

I must add that I put my trainers in the fridge last week and the cheese in the hallway, dementia is setting in, though I am but a youthful 40!

Stay green.



4 comments:

  1. Help a soccer novice understand the strategy. You back 0-0 and back over 3.5 goals. If any early goal comes your 0-0 bet has sunk but your over 3.5 goals bet is in the money. I think I am with you so far. It must follow then that the move on the over 3.5 is bigger than the loss on the 0-0?

    If the game had turned out a different way, eg 0-0 after half an hour, would the relative difference in the prices also put you in the money?

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  2. Had the Chelsea defence not capitulated for half an hour the price of 0-0 would have been circa half that it started at allowing a 100% green across the correct score market. Bearing in mind the high start price it might even have been a tad south of that mark.

    Under 3.5 would, by the same token, have steamed to around the 1.2 - 1.25 mark or so I reckon.

    The difference, of course, is that a goal kills the 0-0 part of the trade whilst enlivening the goals lay. I suspect Lamb was looking to green up on 0-0 to cover his liability on the goals lay - hence the 'free trade'. A wicked deflection followed by lacklustre defending and a brilliant play by RVP put paid to the former, Lamb's nascent dementia to the other!

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  3. That, gun, is the perfect explanation.

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