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Monday, 29 October 2012

I must be getting old

Set up almost the perfect trade yesterday in what, I was confident, would be a high scoring game.
The markets expected the same or similar in the Chelsea v Man U game and had U3.5 at 1.7, which to this trader looked good value, with some cover on the 0-0 which was 18.5.
Took the 0-0 just before KO knowing that this would not take long to reach a point where I had a free trade but also being aware that, obviously, early goals would not be an issue...
BANG! David Luiz scores with his arse after a couple of minutes and, whilst my 0-0 stake was gone, the U3.5 flew out. Ten minutes later Chelsea were found asleep by the awesome RVP, he nets and the trade is guaranteed green, should I choose to take it, which I didn't, being confident of more goals.
Those goals came, Mark Clattenburg metaphorically gave Fergie a nosh and the game was all over.
Then I had that moment. The realisation, the knowing, the sinking in of the mistake you've made before you get actual confirmation... Yes, I had covered the 0-0 but I hadn't laid the U3.5 as was my intention. So, essentially I'd just had a large bet on 0-0. The boys at Betfair must have been laughing their nuts off at the numpty who thought the game would finish goal-less.

I must add that I put my trainers in the fridge last week and the cheese in the hallway, dementia is setting in, though I am but a youthful 40!

Stay green.


  1. Help a soccer novice understand the strategy. You back 0-0 and back over 3.5 goals. If any early goal comes your 0-0 bet has sunk but your over 3.5 goals bet is in the money. I think I am with you so far. It must follow then that the move on the over 3.5 is bigger than the loss on the 0-0?

    If the game had turned out a different way, eg 0-0 after half an hour, would the relative difference in the prices also put you in the money?

  2. Had the Chelsea defence not capitulated for half an hour the price of 0-0 would have been circa half that it started at allowing a 100% green across the correct score market. Bearing in mind the high start price it might even have been a tad south of that mark.

    Under 3.5 would, by the same token, have steamed to around the 1.2 - 1.25 mark or so I reckon.

    The difference, of course, is that a goal kills the 0-0 part of the trade whilst enlivening the goals lay. I suspect Lamb was looking to green up on 0-0 to cover his liability on the goals lay - hence the 'free trade'. A wicked deflection followed by lacklustre defending and a brilliant play by RVP put paid to the former, Lamb's nascent dementia to the other!

  3. That, gun, is the perfect explanation.

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