BBC Sport | Football | World Edition

Wednesday, 19 December 2012

Reasons for failure

If you watch the news or politically heavy shows, invariably, you will see some MP or other skirting around the truth as to why his or her plan/policy failed to deliver on promises or expectations. The economy takes the blame for the most part or some unexpected aspect came from left field to throw these rock solid ideas into disarray.
The epitome of untruth, politicians make the worst role models because of their inability to be honest. How often do we watch an MP spouting drivel, where you can plainly see he or she is beginning to believe their own bullshit.
With such internal dishonesty, how good a trader would the average MP make?

As ever, the point of this post simple; there are two reasons for failure.
Failure comes from the wrong plan or the wrong people. Sometimes a mix of both but only ever these two.
This then, can be broken down to ever simpler terms - The wrong people will create a bad plan and not adjust it or not create one at all.
The traders maxim "plan the trade, trade the plan" holds firm because the right plan contains the action for every possible outcome.

At the end of your trading today, analyse both your green and red trades and ask yourself was the outcome a result of plan or person? You may be surprised at the answers.

Stay green.

Monday, 10 December 2012

Shameless Plugs



Been so long since I've had time to post. The corporate bollocks being one time killer and then Mrs. Lambretta is laid up after a fairly major stomach op, leaving me to be father, nurse, cleaner, cook, babysitter and bread-winner... BLOODY HARD WORK!

Anyway that out of the way, I'll get to the first of the shameless plugs.
Such is my quest to find the perfect prediction model, I sought to learn more about Paul DePosta, the statistician responsible for the success of the Oakland A's, recreated as Peter Brand in the movie Moneyball - a bloody good movie too.
Turns out that Mr. DePosta's model isn't easily transferred to the markets I would prefer to work in, though I suspect someone a little more technical and, frankly, geekier than me would be able to adapt and apply the method to football. But, in my search for Mr DePosta's model, I came across another more applicable and more logical, for my limited intelligence, plan/method/model. However, whilst it is fairly in-complex, it couldn't be accurately relayed here. Out of respect for the author, I'm not sure I would anyway. So, go and grab yourself a copy of the Signal and the Noise (Why most predictions fail) by Nate Silver. Whatever you want to predict, it has relevance.

And so to my next shameless plug - The guys over at The Sports Trading Academy are hosting two training courses in the New Year. I personally attended the last nag course and it vastly improved my pre-race trading, as such, I would heartily recommend your attendance if you are interested in the sports they are covering. Here's the details;


We will be running 2 four week trading course on Horse Racing Trading and Football and NBA Trading. The courses will run back to back commencing with the Football and NBA course which will start on January 6th 2013. The Football course will run on Sundays and will cover the live games on Sky Sports, both games for the first two Sundays and then One Football match and one NBA game for the last two Sundays. The Horse Racing Trading Course will commence the weekend after the first course is concluded and will be on Saturdays afternoons for four weeks.
Course Content:-
Football
API Set Up
Game Selection
Pre Game Trading
Inplay Trading
Scalping and Leverage
Strategies in Practice
Do's and Don'ts of football trading
Sites and Tools for finding trades
NBA
API Set Up
Pre Game Trading
Swing Trades and Scalping
Understanding Spreads
Horse Trading
API Set Up
Market Analysis
Races to avoid trading
Common Mistakes
Market Formations
Selection of Back 2 Lay and Lay to Backs
Laying The Field
Dutching
Scalping and Swing trading
Following Trends
How to trade outsiders
When to enter and exit trades
Managing Liability
The course will both take the form of a webinar hosted by our resident pro betfair trader, between each session there will be homework to further reinforce the learning and develop your trading skills. The courses are £50 each, but members wishing to take advantage of a place on both courses will receive a 20% discount and pay only £80, places are strictly limited so book early to avoid disappointment.
To book a place, please send a payment to paypal@thesportstradingacademy.com and quote Football, Horses or Both Courses or admin@thesportstradingacademy.com for anymore information.

For those wishing to take a personal Mentorship with our protrader a 1-1 option is available 15 hrs £200.  This is a more in depth package covering all the above plus much more.