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Friday, 21 February 2014

The value of waiting.

Sporadic posts these days. I'm hoping to change that in the next couple of months with a change of circumstance...

Anyway, last night I was interested to read the tweet of one particular trader who had decided to enter the market because "a goal is coming" in the Spurs game. Intrigued, I checked the game stats to find that nothing pointed to a goal at all. Low SoT's, few corners etc. I queried his logic directly, to which he suggested that he was in fact "ahead of the stats". His theory, he thought, was evidenced by Spurs missing a sitter.
- it's worth noting at this stage that you cannot be ahead of stats. Stats, or lack of them, are scientific evidence of a likelihood, anything else is gut feel or, as it's known in the trade, taking a punt -
A full half hour later, the stats did indeed suggest a goal was coming.  I laid the 0-0, as had he, I got the goal I expected, he got the goal he, by then, was desperate for.
Now, this post is not to make him look foolish or me particularly clever (thought I am, really), but to point out the value in waiting for value to proffer itself. Unless you fancy a game to finish U2.5, you can gain significant uplift on profits by entering when the stats and the market are in your favour. Here's an example:
Swansea v Cardiff  3-0 - the market favoured O2.5 and CS reflected that but, both sides had very poor stats for first half goals. Add to this that, on average, the first goal in a game is scored around 27 minutes, you have a massive window where prices will drift, you can enter with a lesser liability or greater profit margin and you are also presented an opportunity to re-evaluate your thinking. Had you backed O2.5 in this game, you may have been closing your position at HT, certainly you'd be thinking how to reduce it, only to find you were right all along come 90 minutes.

In short, if you fancy goals in a game, don't jump in. Have an idea of when you think they will come and enter at that point, using stats to back you up. Those few extra ticks of profit will make a massive difference when you come to the yearly P&L.

Stay green.